Texas Winter 2023-2024
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
I'm still cautious up here because everything at this range has trended bad up here so far but man the signal about this weekend is hard to ignore
Last edited by Brent on Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Ntxw wrote:GFS is trending towards the Euro route. Canadian favors the western TPV. They all get colder but don't agree which pieces take over.
I'm surprised that the cmc is a dry solution with that impulse riding in behind the front. Is the orientation having an impact on moisture return in that solution?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
What does TPV mean? The polar vortex?
I was so focused on later I didn't even realize it was supposed to rain today. Lol.
I was so focused on later I didn't even realize it was supposed to rain today. Lol.
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- Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
rwfromkansas wrote:What does TPV mean? The polar vortex?
I was so focused on later I didn't even realize it was supposed to rain today. Lol.
This, I think...Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV)
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
cheezyWXguy i believe the CMC is dry because of how cold that run is, maybe suppression?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
cheezyWXguy wrote:Ntxw wrote:GFS is trending towards the Euro route. Canadian favors the western TPV. They all get colder but don't agree which pieces take over.
I'm surprised that the cmc is a dry solution with that impulse riding in behind the front. Is the orientation having an impact on moisture return in that solution?
Too cold on the CMC. Vorticity is sheared by the TPV, would need some separation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Stratton23 wrote:cheesyWXguy i believe the CMC is dry because of how cold that run is, maybe suppression?
Yep, it has an incredible 492 TPV into Minnesota next Monday...would force any S/Ws to get swallowed up with that orientation at 5h. However, Euro not nearly as strong with the TPV/much further to the Northeast allowing S/W to dig into southern New Mexico. GFS is a hyrid of both solutions.
All about the strength of the TPV and that will take a few days for models to hone in on!
CMC

Euro

GFS

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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Tireman4 wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:What does TPV mean? The polar vortex?
I was so focused on later I didn't even realize it was supposed to rain today. Lol.
This, I think...Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV)
Tireman is a librarian. He knows things.

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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
And unfortunately for snow lovers, looking at the magnitude of the Greenland Block, the Canadian looks much more plausible than the Euro solution at this time!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
orangeblood wrote:Stratton23 wrote:cheesyWXguy i believe the CMC is dry because of how cold that run is, maybe suppression?
Yep, it has an incredible 492 TPV into Minnesota next Monday...would force any S/Ws to get swallowed up with that orientation at 5h. However, Euro not nearly as strong with the TPV/much further to the Northeast allowing S/W to dig into southern New Mexico. GFS is a hyrid of both solutions.
All about the strength of the TPV and that will take a few days for models to hone in on!
CMC
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/z500_anom/1704715200/1705320000-xRD5SMa3zcA.png
Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1704672000/1705320000-sg9rjId1Qa8.png
GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/z500_anom/1704672000/1705320000-CjrUoFXxBZA.png
ICON seems to be close to the Euro correct? Kinda odd how both of those models push from the west to the east so quickly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
The 12Z GFS illustrates the importance of timing. Right now it suggests the arctic blast comes through and we see a bit of wintry precip in the metroplex. It's still more than five days out, so don't take this to the bank. The next few days should be interesting to watch.





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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Gotwood wrote:orangeblood wrote:Stratton23 wrote:cheesyWXguy i believe the CMC is dry because of how cold that run is, maybe suppression?
Yep, it has an incredible 492 TPV into Minnesota next Monday...would force any S/Ws to get swallowed up with that orientation at 5h. However, Euro not nearly as strong with the TPV/much further to the Northeast allowing S/W to dig into southern New Mexico. GFS is a hyrid of both solutions.
All about the strength of the TPV and that will take a few days for models to hone in on!
CMC
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/z500_anom/1704715200/1705320000-xRD5SMa3zcA.png
Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1704672000/1705320000-sg9rjId1Qa8.png
GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/z500_anom/1704672000/1705320000-CjrUoFXxBZA.png
ICON seems to be close to the Euro correct? Kinda odd how both of those models push from the west to the east so quickly.
Somewhat with a piece of the PV off to the NE but it leaves behind a piece across the northern rockies. Still a lot to work out with this setup, way too early to tell much of anything other than it's going to get cold!!

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Dumping rain now. Lots of thunder and lightning as well. Lost power for a bit and my wife, who works from home, about had a panic attack. 

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
dhweather wrote:The 12Z GFS illustrates the importance of timing. Right now it suggests the arctic blast comes through and we see a bit of wintry precip in the metroplex. It's still more than five days out, so don't take this to the bank. The next few days should be interesting to watch.![]()
https://i.ibb.co/KmpxCYc/gfs-T2m-scus-28.png
https://i.ibb.co/JFP9NF7/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-27.png
I’m still not buying that much of a warmup from the first cold shot on the 12th/13th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Metroplexers - Dallas and points east
916
WWUS84 KFWD 081707
SPSFWD
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1107 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
TXZ104-105-118>121-133-134-081800-
Ellis TX-Kaufman TX-Hunt TX-Collin TX-Tarrant TX-Rockwall TX-
Johnson TX-Dallas TX-
1107 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockwall,
southwestern Hunt, western Kaufman, eastern Johnson, southeastern
Tarrant, northern Ellis, southern Collin and Dallas Counties through
NOON CST...
At 1106 AM CST, the weather observation stations observed strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Irving to Mansfield.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Public.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Dallas, Arlington, Irving, Grand Prairie, Mansfield, Cedar Hill,
Duncanville, Cockrell Hill, Cedar Hill State Park, and Dallas Love
Field around 1110 AM CST.
Desoto, University Park, and Highland Park around 1115 AM CST.
Garland, Richardson, and Lancaster around 1120 AM CST.
Mesquite around 1125 AM CST.
Plano, Rowlett, Wylie, Sachse, Hutchins, and Murphy around 1130 AM
CST.
Rockwall, Balch Springs, and Sunnyvale around 1135 AM CST.
Heath around 1140 AM CST.
Forney, Royse City, Fate, and Mobile City around 1145 AM CST.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Joe Pool Lake,
Mountain Creek Lake, Sand Branch, Rockett, Rosser, Bristol, Pecan
Hill, Boyce, Floyd, and Lavon Lake.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35W between mile markers 16 and 32.
Interstate 35E between mile markers 396 and 443.
Interstate 20 between mile markers 446 and 497.
Interstate 30 between mile markers 27 and 83.
Interstate 45 between mile markers 255 and 284.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3243 9642 3221 9743 3294 9703 3317 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 242DEG 48KT 3280 9697 3255 9711
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
$$
Hernandez
916
WWUS84 KFWD 081707
SPSFWD
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1107 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
TXZ104-105-118>121-133-134-081800-
Ellis TX-Kaufman TX-Hunt TX-Collin TX-Tarrant TX-Rockwall TX-
Johnson TX-Dallas TX-
1107 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockwall,
southwestern Hunt, western Kaufman, eastern Johnson, southeastern
Tarrant, northern Ellis, southern Collin and Dallas Counties through
NOON CST...
At 1106 AM CST, the weather observation stations observed strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Irving to Mansfield.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Public.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Dallas, Arlington, Irving, Grand Prairie, Mansfield, Cedar Hill,
Duncanville, Cockrell Hill, Cedar Hill State Park, and Dallas Love
Field around 1110 AM CST.
Desoto, University Park, and Highland Park around 1115 AM CST.
Garland, Richardson, and Lancaster around 1120 AM CST.
Mesquite around 1125 AM CST.
Plano, Rowlett, Wylie, Sachse, Hutchins, and Murphy around 1130 AM
CST.
Rockwall, Balch Springs, and Sunnyvale around 1135 AM CST.
Heath around 1140 AM CST.
Forney, Royse City, Fate, and Mobile City around 1145 AM CST.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Joe Pool Lake,
Mountain Creek Lake, Sand Branch, Rockett, Rosser, Bristol, Pecan
Hill, Boyce, Floyd, and Lavon Lake.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35W between mile markers 16 and 32.
Interstate 35E between mile markers 396 and 443.
Interstate 20 between mile markers 446 and 497.
Interstate 30 between mile markers 27 and 83.
Interstate 45 between mile markers 255 and 284.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3243 9642 3221 9743 3294 9703 3317 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 242DEG 48KT 3280 9697 3255 9711
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
$$
Hernandez
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Still a wide range of solutions for next Monday on the GFS ensembles but definitely trending much colder and even more precip solutions than previous runs


Last edited by orangeblood on Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:25 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
gpsnowman wrote:Dumping rain now. Lots of thunder and lightning as well. Lost power for a bit and my wife, who works from home, about had a panic attack.
My weather station is reporting a rainfall rate of 1.75"/hr over the last 5 minutes. Good little storm rolling through North Dallas.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
I would say that the 12z GFS isn't too far off from the 00z Euro at D5, esp. if you factor in that the GFS has been a bit too progressive with some of these systems so far this winter.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
All this shows is how tough it is to get winter weather in the south. Too many things needs to come together. Brent, your looking good buddy end of this week!
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