Texas Winter 2023-2024

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South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1701 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:27 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:1.5" in my backyard this AM. That's a very impressive (and much needed) 3.75" since January 1st!


Wow, way more than expected, congrats! Most models had your area seeing up to 0.75 inch at most.


Yes sir! The last couple of systems have definitely overperformed just west of New Braunfels- a very welcome sight.


Yes indeed! 2 overperforming events in SA so far in the first week of 2024. Hopefully that continues all year!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1702 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:29 pm

Simultaneous Tornado and Blizzard Warnings. Only in Texas!

Stay safe everyone.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1703 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:34 pm

At 2:17 a trained spotter reported a tornado on the ground in Coldspring.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1704 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:38 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:Simultaneous Tornado and Blizzard Warnings. Only in Texas!

Stay safe everyone.



Well, you know our motto, " Texas: Its Like A Whole Other Country"
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1705 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:42 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:Simultaneous Tornado and Blizzard Warnings. Only in Texas!

Stay safe everyone.



Well, you know our motto, " Texas: Its Like A Whole Other Country"


Takes me back to those weather channel commercials when I was a kid. Lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1706 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:51 pm

Ntxw wrote:That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.


No doubt, WPO going into the abysss....
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1707 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:56 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.


No doubt, WPO going into the abysss....
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/wpo/box/1704715200-UpZGCwcN7YEgrb2.png


Is the epo similar?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1708 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:58 pm

IMO 10 plus below normal 10 day average is usually a good Severe Arctic outbreak benchmark! Ensembles are going that direction

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1709 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:01 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.


No doubt, WPO going into the abysss....
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/wpo/box/1704715200-UpZGCwcN7YEgrb2.png


Is the epo similar?


It's the most volatile, check out the ranges for the member EPO forecasts (some are off the chart negative). That's a big piece of this puzzle and a big reason why models are having fits pinning this down

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1710 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:03 pm

Low level shear is insane across the Houston metro today. It's so high that perhaps (fingers crossed) it may be limiting those prefrontal storms from dropping tornadoes (ripping apart updrafts perhaps), but definitely not an "all clear" as more storms just out ahead of the front are moving east of SA toward Houston. Those definitely need to be watched in a few hours. Volatile environment for SE TX today. Definitely a day to follow local NWS office for folks in that region.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1711 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:04 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:


Is the epo similar?


It's the most volatile, check out the ranges for the member EPO forecasts (some are off the chart negative). That's a big piece of this puzzle and a big reason why models are having fits pinning this down

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1704715200-MCwPcyQzNfUgrb2.png

Typically the epo matches the wpo or very close to it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1712 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:09 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Low level shear is insane across the Houston metro today. It's so high that perhaps (fingers crossed) it may be limiting those prefrontal storms from dropping tornadoes (ripping apart updrafts perhaps), but definitely not an "all clear" as more storms just out ahead of the front are moving east of SA toward Houston. Those definitely need to be watched in a few hours. Volatile environment for SE TX today. Definitely a day to follow local NWS office for folks in that region.


I would imagine the ride into IAH and Hobby today is rather ... bumpy. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1713 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:10 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Low level shear is insane across the Houston metro today. It's so high that perhaps (fingers crossed) it may be limiting those prefrontal storms from dropping tornadoes (ripping apart updrafts perhaps), but definitely not an "all clear" as more storms just out ahead of the front are moving east of SA toward Houston. Those definitely need to be watched in a few hours. Volatile environment for SE TX today. Definitely a day to follow local NWS office for folks in that region.


Yeah it looks and feels like a severe weather day in Houston. Warm, humid, windy, with clouds racing. Hopefully we dodge a bullet here today, but won't be safe until the front moves through in a few hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1714 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:12 pm

I got hail in Weimar
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1715 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:13 pm

So, possibly good news for later if we have further south trends for future storms, but it looks like the trend for the snow today/tonight is actually bigger totals for KS and a pretty big jog south.

My hometown has been bumped up from 3 inches to 8-12. So, a significant increase...

Wish I still lived there on days like this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1716 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:32 pm

Stay safe for those in SE Texas. Not clear until that line to the west moves through.

What we can no longer deny is the cold real. It's real, it's beginning to build over NW and W Canada.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1717 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:38 pm

Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1718 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:Stay safe for those in SE Texas. Not clear until that line to the west moves through.

What we can no longer deny is the cold real. It's real, it's beginning to build over NW and W Canada.


We ahall hold down the fort for you all! Windy. That low level jet is cooking at 50 to 60kts. My gracious
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1719 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

https://i.imgur.com/1P8DhJG.png

https://i.imgur.com/NWBvky6.png

https://i.imgur.com/VlQaqHu.png

https://i.imgur.com/3L1HM3B.png


So then why are professionals balking at it? They don't want to eat crow?

It seems there are amateurs like us who are all in, some pros, are too, then there are TV mets.... meh
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#1720 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:47 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

https://i.imgur.com/1P8DhJG.png

https://i.imgur.com/NWBvky6.png

https://i.imgur.com/VlQaqHu.png

https://i.imgur.com/3L1HM3B.png


So then why are professionals balking at it? They don't want to eat crow?

It seems there are amateurs like us who are all in, some pros, are too, then there are TV mets.... meh


They will trend down each day until it's nearly impossible to be wrong, which then will be the right call no matter what.
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