Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

-50 to -60’s showing up in central canada on the 18z ICON, goodness gracious !

[gboudx]

Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

https://i.imgur.com/1P8DhJG.png

https://i.imgur.com/NWBvky6.png

https://i.imgur.com/VlQaqHu.png

https://i.imgur.com/3L1HM3B.png

So then why are professionals balking at it? They don't want to eat crow?

It seems there are amateurs like us who are all in, some pros, are too, then there are TV mets.... meh

All I can offer is TV mets have to be more cautious since they're so public-facing. And the reality is they have time to monitor the situation and start reporting on it as the timeframe gets a bit closer. I would be very surprised if amongst themselves in their offices, their discussions aren't more aligned with what we're reading here. They just can't go all-in to the public during the newscasts yet.

[Ntxw]

Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

https://i.imgur.com/1P8DhJG.png

https://i.imgur.com/NWBvky6.png

https://i.imgur.com/VlQaqHu.png

https://i.imgur.com/3L1HM3B.png

So then why are professionals balking at it? They don't want to eat crow?

It seems there are amateurs like us who are all in, some pros, are too, then there are TV mets.... meh

All I can offer is TV mets have to be more cautious since they're so public-facing. And the reality is they have time to monitor the situation and start reporting on it as the timeframe gets a bit closer. I would be very surprised if amongst themselves in their offices, their discussions aren't more aligned with what we're reading here. They just can't go all-in to the public during the newscasts yet.

And to add the public is more interested in ice and snow rather than "It will be 30F below normal for a few days aligned with historical arctic outbreaks." Which the precip is understandable as iffy. Snow/ice=cold to the general public.

[jasons2k]

Temp just dropped from 75 to 59. Front has outrun the squall line.

[Ntxw]

-50 to -60’s showing up in central canada on the 18z ICON, goodness gracious !

There's a -70F in Saskatchewan.

[Portastorm]

Temp just dropped from 75 to 59. Front has outrun the squall line.

Yeah Jason that happened here earlier today as well.

[mmmmsnouts]

All I can offer is TV mets have to be more cautious since they're so public-facing. And the reality is they have time to monitor the situation and start reporting on it as the timeframe gets a bit closer.

Exactly this. Most everyone here is just a person on a message board reading maps. It doesn’t matter if an enthusiast here gets it wrong. TV mets have hundreds of thousands of people depending on what they say. Weather is the only part of local news that everyone still pays attention to, they can’t afford to give away reputation.

[Ntxw]

There actually is a good consensus now Sun-Mon is big frontal passage and that the cold lingers through mid week, even the GFS. As we get closer do expect some downward temperature trends, they're doing it now upstream in Canada. Will there be precip with the big push of cold?

GFS has been correcting.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is significantly colder and is now starting to trend towards the euro solution, showing some wintry mischief

[dhweather]

FWD finally mentioning this in the afternoon AFD package:


Saturday looks like a generally quiet day with slightly warmer
temperatures as weak mid level ridging swings through the Southern
Plains. By Saturday night, an initial shot of colder air will
likely spill southward into North Texas. Lows Saturday night may
dip into the teens to mid 20s with a stronger cold front expected
sometime on Sunday. A strong shortwave trough over the 4 corners
region will approach Texas during the day. Deterministic models
are in disagreement on the strength of the trough with the EC
showing it much deeper than the GFS. As a result the position of
the surface low on both models is quite different with the low
over New Mexico in the EC and over west Texas in the GFS by Sunday
evening. This will lead to some uncertainty on the timing of the
coldest air and precipitation spreading into North Texas. There
is increasing confidence that very cold air will spill southward
through the Plains on Sunday into Sunday night. This will feature
some of the coldest temperatures of the winter season so far. Lows
Sunday night into Monday are expected to be in the teens with
highs on Monday struggling to get above freezing north of I-20.
There is at least a low potential for wintry precipitation across
parts of the region during this time. This precipitation
potential will be assessed further in the coming days.

[Ntxw]

That's cross polar flow longer range. Alaskan/Bering rex block.

[txtwister78]

I'll say this and it's not an excuse, but Texas is one of the toughest markets I think to forecast weather in for a variety of reasons. One when you're on the east coast and even in the midwest, you can literally "see" your weather players traversing the country from west to east. In Texas, a lot of our weather is influenced by the pacific, the gulf and from the north when you're dealing with arctic fronts etc.

I can't tell you how many times local tv mets over the years here have busted with precipitation forecast (frozen or liquid). In most cases (not all), I find it's underdone because when models bust they do as well. The other factor added to that is down here you get systems that often come out of Mexico (especially across South Central Texas) and models aren't as good (although better today) at sampling/ picking up on that out ahead of the actual event.

Having said all that and as mentioned on here the other day, I continue think the potential is there for a winter storm early next week. The pattern is going to remain active and with arctic air entrenched by then across much of the state, that's our window of opportunity for us to watch. No pressure on me of course. Lol

[opticsguy]

I'll say this and it's not an excuse, but Texas is one of the toughest markets I think to forecast weather in for a variety of reasons. One when you're on the east coast and even in the midwest, you can literally "see" your weather players traversing the country from west to east. In Texas, a lot of our weather is influenced by the pacific, the gulf and from the north when you're dealing with arctic fronts etc.

I can't tell you how many times local tv mets over the years here have busted with precipitation forecast (frozen or liquid). In most cases (not all), I find it's underdone because when models bust they do as well. The other factor added to that is down here you get systems that often come out of Mexico (especially across South Central Texas) and models aren't as good (although better today) at sampling/ picking up on that out ahead of the actual event.

Having said all that and as mentioned on here the other day, I continue think the potential is there for a winter storm early next week. The pattern is going to remain active and with arctic air entrenched by then across much of the state, that's our window of opportunity for us to watch. No pressure on me of course. Lol

It also doesn't help that there isn't a lot of surface or balloon data coming out of Mexico, which is critical for filling in the grids in the models in the winter.

[txtwister78]

I'll say this and it's not an excuse, but Texas is one of the toughest markets I think to forecast weather in for a variety of reasons. One when you're on the east coast and even in the midwest, you can literally "see" your weather players traversing the country from west to east. In Texas, a lot of our weather is influenced by the pacific, the gulf and from the north when you're dealing with arctic fronts etc.

I can't tell you how many times local tv mets over the years here have busted with precipitation forecast (frozen or liquid). In most cases (not all), I find it's underdone because when models bust they do as well. The other factor added to that is down here you get systems that often come out of Mexico (especially across South Central Texas) and models aren't as good (although better today) at sampling/ picking up on that out ahead of the actual event.

Having said all that and as mentioned on here the other day, I continue think the potential is there for a winter storm early next week. The pattern is going to remain active and with arctic air entrenched by then across much of the state, that's our window of opportunity for us to watch. No pressure on me of course. Lol

It also doesn't help that there isn't a lot of surface or balloon data coming out of Mexico, which is critical for filling in the grids in the models in the winter.

Good point.

[bubba hotep]

Kind of disappointed in the 18z GFS. I thought there were some encouraging signs in the 12z GEFS for winter wx potential and was expecting the 18z GFS to jog that way.

[orangeblood]

All I can offer is TV mets have to be more cautious since they're so public-facing. And the reality is they have time to monitor the situation and start reporting on it as the timeframe gets a bit closer.

Exactly this. Everyone here is just a person on a message board reading maps. It doesn’t matter if someone here gets it wrong. TV mets have hundreds of thousands of people depending on what they say. Weather is the only part of local news that everyone still pays attention to, they can’t afford to give away reputation.

Sounds like a paid professional who is afraid to do their job!

[Harp.1]

Things are trending better for my area in Louisiana.

[SnowintheFalls]

Kind of disappointed in the 18z GFS. I thought there were some encouraging signs in the 12z GEFS for winter wx potential and was expecting the 18z GFS to jog that way.

Not looking likely on the precipitation front but boy is it going to be cold. Snow definitely makes the cold worth it though!

[IcyTundra]

I understand how some feel about TV mets but they are in a pretty tough spot. With this being a week out the details of this artic front are still uncertain and they don't want to get skewered by the public if they are too bullish.

[Itryatgolf]

Kind of disappointed in the 18z GFS. I thought there were some encouraging signs in the 12z GEFS for winter wx potential and was expecting the 18z GFS to jog that way.

Back not long ago, the gfs would 99.9% times trend towards the euro. Not so much anymore. Imo, if the gfs don't trend towards euro at 0z , the euro will trend towards the gfs with not much of a system imo. As advertised on 12zeuro, it was a great run for many! Lots of pieces have to come together for winter weather here!