Texas Winter 2023-2024

[orangeblood]

Geez, That TPV is on another level, don’t see how it doesn’t swallow up any S/Ws coming around the base of this over next week. Just a reminder, we’ve been burned by the models more times than I can count over the past decade on this forum with similar setups. With this specific synoptic setup, I think we need more resistance from the southeast ridge to produce a significant storm next week. Unfortunately, it’s just not there this season. Can get storms in other ways over next several weeks but this one just doesn’t look quite right. Hope I’m wrong, teens 40 mph winds and blowing snow would be something!!

[rwfromkansas]

What is the new Euro AI model saying I hear on FB at times?

[Itryatgolf]

Geez, That TPV is on another level, don’t see how it doesn’t swallow up any S/Ws coming around the base of this over next week. Just a reminder, we’ve been burned by the models more times than I can count over the past decade on this forum with similar setups. With this specific synoptic setup, I think we need more resistance from the southeast ridge to produce a significant storm next week. Unfortunately, it’s just not there this season. Can get storms in other ways over next several weeks but this one just doesn’t look quite right. Hope I’m wrong, teens 40 mph winds and blowing snow would be something!!

That's why the gfs makes the most sense in this particular situation. Not much of a system. Euro will be telling

[bubba hotep]

What is the new Euro AI model saying I hear on FB at times?

I haven't found them to be very useful. There are several versions, so basically, a mini-ensemble of AI runs.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/ai_models/

[Ntxw]

Itryatgolf yeah thats not how it works, just because the GFS was the first to sniff out the februrary 2021 outbreak and winter storm doesnt mean the Euro will trend towards the current GFS run, the GFS has actually been the most unreliable of the globals so far for this event as its had to correct colder over the pst several days, and just because the GFS is dry does not mean the Euro wont be correct ( vise versa as well)

This isn't the same GFS as it was back then. Whatever upgrades since it has performed poorly with cold blasts. With the last 3 cold wave events, I have so much mistrust on it, it's a click view once and move on. I don't know if the algorithms it has struggles with downsloping in the Rockies, but something like that it has a flagrant error.

If that energy can dig further sw in future runs we be in good shape. Hopefully gfs trends that way similar to euro

I was mainly referring to the cold on GFS. I don't have a lot of faith on the snow/precip. Our best hope is that there is usually some lift at 850mb with these arctic fronts. We actually don't need a big disturbance, just something to ride the flow and tip the STJ. It doesn't take much in a polar air mass to generate something.

[cheezyWXguy]

Geez, That TPV is on another level, don’t see how it doesn’t swallow up any S/Ws coming around the base of this over next week. Just a reminder, we’ve been burned by the models more times than I can count over the past decade on this forum with similar setups. With this specific synoptic setup, I think we need more resistance from the southeast ridge to produce a significant storm next week. Unfortunately, it’s just not there this season. Can get storms in other ways over next several weeks but this one just doesn’t look quite right. Hope I’m wrong, teens 40 mph winds and blowing snow would be something!!

That's why the gfs makes the most sense in this particular situation. Not much of a system. Euro will be telling

It’s not. Precip aside, it’s too slow with the front, too quick to clear everything out and too quick to moderate the temperatures. A more plausible dry scenario would likely be the icon or even the cmc.

[bubba hotep]

Geez, That TPV is on another level, don’t see how it doesn’t swallow up any S/Ws coming around the base of this over next week. Just a reminder, we’ve been burned by the models more times than I can count over the past decade on this forum with similar setups. With this specific synoptic setup, I think we need more resistance from the southeast ridge to produce a significant storm next week. Unfortunately, it’s just not there this season. Can get storms in other ways over next several weeks but this one just doesn’t look quite right. Hope I’m wrong, teens 40 mph winds and blowing snow would be something!!

Orientation. The Euro runs that really hit are more North-South, which allows the s/w to dig into the SW. The GFS is more zonal, and the s/w races into the base of the TPV. This would be a good example for a QG theory discussion

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, we made it to 101 pages. Had a slow start but really going now.

[Harp.1]

For now, the excitement seems to have waned based on the latest model runs.

[orangeblood]

Geez, That TPV is on another level, don’t see how it doesn’t swallow up any S/Ws coming around the base of this over next week. Just a reminder, we’ve been burned by the models more times than I can count over the past decade on this forum with similar setups. With this specific synoptic setup, I think we need more resistance from the southeast ridge to produce a significant storm next week. Unfortunately, it’s just not there this season. Can get storms in other ways over next several weeks but this one just doesn’t look quite right. Hope I’m wrong, teens 40 mph winds and blowing snow would be something!!

Orientation. The Euro runs that really hit are more North-South, which allows the s/w to dig into the SW. The GFS is more zonal, and the s/w races into the base of the TPV. This would be a good example for a QG theory discussion

Lol considering the nightmares I still occasionally have over my college differential equations class, I think I’ll pass on that discussion

[Itryatgolf]

Geez, That TPV is on another level, don’t see how it doesn’t swallow up any S/Ws coming around the base of this over next week. Just a reminder, we’ve been burned by the models more times than I can count over the past decade on this forum with similar setups. With this specific synoptic setup, I think we need more resistance from the southeast ridge to produce a significant storm next week. Unfortunately, it’s just not there this season. Can get storms in other ways over next several weeks but this one just doesn’t look quite right. Hope I’m wrong, teens 40 mph winds and blowing snow would be something!!

Orientation. The Euro runs that really hit are more North-South, which allows the s/w to dig into the SW. The GFS is more zonal, and the s/w races into the base of the TPV. This would be a good example for a QG theory discussion

Lol considering the nightmares I still occasionally have over my college differential equations class, I think I’ll pass on that discussion

Unfortunately we have the TPV in wrong location when we don't need it! That's why it's tough to get the right setup for winter storms here

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What is the new Euro AI model saying I hear on FB at times?

I haven't found them to be very useful. There are several versions, so basically, a mini-ensemble of AI runs.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/ai_models/

Lots of hype for these models, but my research shows they consume about 90% LESS energy to run but the outcomes are pretty similar to the other models.

[CaptinCrunch]

8-) For now, the excitement seems to have waned based on the latest model runs.

Not the case, models are going to go back and forth with solutions till we are 48 hrs out, and even then there will be additional adjustments.

Get your popcorn ready, this is just the pregame show

[Ntxw]

8-) For now, the excitement seems to have waned based on the latest model runs.

No the case, models are going to go back and forth with solutions till we are 48 hrs out, and even then there will be additional adjustments.

Get your popcorn ready, this is just the pregame show

Excitement comes with 0z and 12z, mostly waiting between.

Plus now that the NWS and Tvs are onboard, we lose some of the speculation for cold. It gets more and more boring until it happens. Now if we can get snow to show up on models it will drive the speculation again .

[Cpv17]

Today’s CPC forecast looks a lot more promising for precipitation.

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/judah47/status/1744752567 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Hmmm…

[Cpv17]

Idk about y’all but I’m getting the feeling that this upcoming cold blast is just the beginning of a very fun January and February.

[Gotwood]

Idk about y’all but I’m getting the feeling that this upcoming cold blast is just the beginning of a very fun January and February.

I just want some snow. Let me rephrase I want a lot of snow lol. This is the first year I wasn’t able to take the family to Colorado to see snow, so I’m counting on something to come through.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 Agreed! Plus the longer we stay cold, that only increases the odds of disturbances coming across at some point and overriding the cold air, gonna be a fun time

[Yukon Cornelius]

They’ve treated our bridges in the county. Idk why, or why this early. I don’t think we were ever in the risk for snow and ice up here but now that they’ve treated we’re definitely not!