2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[SFLcane]

On paper, this is the most favorable Atlantic hurricane season look I have ever seen this far out. NMME actually trended to a slightly warmer AMO pattern than its December forecast, and gives a greater than 90% chance the MDR and Caribbean will be warmer than normal for JAS. Wow.

As William Gray said before the 2004 season (trouble is coming)

[CyclonicFury]

Looking at the NMME forecast, adjusted to the global mean anomaly, the PDO pattern looks much less positive and more neutral/negative. The tropical Atlantic is much, much warmer than the eastern and central Pacific relative to average. Only the western Pacific is similarly warm, but that's a typical feature with a La Nina.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1744418091906515113

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1744418091906515113?s=20

His other message is even more concerning with that word "abundant".

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1744418095551434958

[ChrisH-UK]

The long range ECMWF models are showing a cooling of the Pacific and warming of the Atlantic. It also shows the Pacific drying up precipitation wise as well.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1744418091906515113?s=20

His other message is even more concerning with that word "abundant".

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1744418095551434958

That precip forecast for the Caribbean & Gulf looks off the hook. Some folks are gonna need to start building a bigger Ark

[zzzh]

New C3S shows a warmer MDR and a stronger Nina signal compared to Dec forecast.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1745093690882666868

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1745093690882666868?s=20

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1745099404103590134

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1745486903665635643

[CyclonicFury]

UKMET goes out to AMJ now...shows the anomalous MDR warmth persisting with what looks like the beginnings of a La Niña event by then

[cycloneye]

This is how the TCHP looks on early January. Already, the Caribbean looks like a bathtub.

[cycloneye]

Phil Klotzbach chimes in about the CPC ENSO update and more.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1745497300267327892




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1745497752182657519

[zzzh]

Climo min of MDR sst is in the first week of March, so we will see mostly cooling (actual sst) in the next 2 month. Of course, if trades are weak enough, then it could reach the bottom in early Feb like 2010 did.

[zzzh]

This is how the TCHP looks on early January. Already, the Caribbean looks like a bathtub.

https://i.imgur.com/Rc7wIob.png

Do you know where to see past TCHP maps? It would be nice to have 2005, 2010 here for comparison.

[NotSparta]

UKMET goes out to AMJ now...shows the anomalous MDR warmth persisting with what looks like the beginnings of a La Niña event by then

https://i.imgur.com/SwkBySj.png
https://i.imgur.com/rvAeUZA.png

Man just look at those precipitation anomalies. Wonder how early we'll see those really impressive waves this year

[cycloneye]

This is how the TCHP looks on early January. Already, the Caribbean looks like a bathtub.

https://i.imgur.com/Rc7wIob.png

Do you know where to see past TCHP maps? It would be nice to have 2005, 2010 here for comparison.

Can't find archieves of the TCHP, but let's see if someone post them.

[SFLcane]

It will be busy but for who? Whether its another fish parade or Conus/Islands disaster, who knows.

[ChrisH-UK]

Was just looking on https://climatereanalyzer.org/ and the temperatures for the North Atlantic are hotter than this time last year, which was the hottest sea temp on record. It's 1 degree hotter that the baseline average.

[ChrisH-UK]

This is how the TCHP looks on early January. Already, the Caribbean looks like a bathtub.

https://i.imgur.com/Rc7wIob.png

Do you know where to see past TCHP maps? It would be nice to have 2005, 2010 here for comparison.

Here's the North Atlantic SST maps for 2023, 2010 and 2005. I would say the temps are a bit hotter that 2010 over all. I still haven't found the old TCHP maps but taken that temps that we have now you could infer what the old TCHP maps would be like.

January 2005



January 2010



January 2023