Texas Winter 2023-2024

[txtwister78]

Some interesting changes on the 06z Euro with the s/w shifting SW and moving through NOCAL and a bit stronger than 00z. Also, the 06z EPS shows a pretty widespread winter wx event across Texas, with freezing rain across a wide portion of the state.

Noticed that. Control run also a little more bullish. 0z had hints of that. Now we wait to see if it's a trend. I'll say this typically if the east coast is going to get a storm along the I-95 corridor, you see a system digging more coming from the SW rathern than a flatter system which other models show. I've seen a few prominent mets up in that area pointing to what we're watching and hyping it for that region early next week.

[Gotwood]

Pretty impressive wall WX57 has built up for Houston on the ICON lol.

[Ntxw]

Looks like we're getting a bit of a south/slower trend with the disturbance. Which means a little more digging. Also depth and location of cold probably will be a determinate factor.

[dhweather]

06Z ECMWF has practically ALL of Montana -20 to -50 on Saturday morning. I honestly cannot fathom temperatures that cold, and hope I never have to experience such.



12Z GFS is pretty much on board with that as well.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like we're getting a bit of a south/slower trend with the disturbance. Which means a little more digging. Also depth and location of cold probably will be a determinate factor.

Yes, baby steps on both the 12z GFS and CMC.

[snowballzzz]

GFS, CMC, Icon, and Euro all seem in agreeance to nail eastern OK with 4-10" on Monday with temps in the single digits and low teens! Seems to be trending slowly south/southeast. Hoping I get to see some solid snow in Tulsa.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS lost the cold air for Houston. Only upper 20s Tuesday and low 40s for Wednesday morning. I'll take it! I can dream, can't I?

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS lost the cold air for Houston. Only upper 20s Tuesday and low 40s for Wednesday morning. I'll take it! I can dream, can't I?

Don't worry, sir. I predict it'll be a nice, warm 72 degrees in Houston on Tuesday ... inside your house!

[txtwister78]

CMC definitely trending Euro now

[Ntxw]

Looks like we're getting a bit of a south/slower trend with the disturbance. Which means a little more digging. Also depth and location of cold probably will be a determinate factor.

Yes, baby steps on both the 12z GFS and CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024011012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

If the cold air is (in real time) much further south, then the gradient will be further south and you will have that disturbance riding the edge. Almost like an Ana-frontal set up. Which the models are currently set up a little further north.

[dhweather]

FWD has nudged the forecast wintry precip westward to roughly the I-35 corridor.

[Stratton23]

Good positive trend, ensembles will be interesting, also given the large shift south on the 06z Euro, the 12z will be very interesting as well

[wxman57]

12Z GFS lost the cold air for Houston. Only upper 20s Tuesday and low 40s for Wednesday morning. I'll take it! I can dream, can't I?

Don't worry, sir. I predict it'll be a nice, warm 72 degrees in Houston on Tuesday ... inside your house!

72??? Trying to freeze me out? It's 75 in my office and I have a space heater going on my desk.

[rwfromkansas]

Speaking of trends, I will say that the KS storm literally had a last-minute shift south of many counties in the final runs before it started snowing. It's amazing that the things that bedeviled us when I was in college in the mid-2000s on forums like this still do so today. We still can have a shock turn right before a storm hits despite all the advanced technology and model improvements since then.

That said, I always feel a lot better with a consistent trend in our favor. Hopefully the 6Z is a trend, not an aberration.

[wxman57]

OK, have a challenge for you. Can you spot the difference in predicted temps in Houston between the 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian? I don't know, they're pretty close (within 50 deg).

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS lost the cold air for Houston. Only upper 20s Tuesday and low 40s for Wednesday morning. I'll take it! I can dream, can't I?

Don't worry, sir. I predict it'll be a nice, warm 72 degrees in Houston on Tuesday ... inside your house!

He might need those heaters we are sending him, Porta. He he he

[rwfromkansas]

06Z ECMWF has practically ALL of Montana -20 to -50 on Saturday morning. I honestly cannot fathom temperatures that cold, and hope I never have to experience such.

https://i.ibb.co/cDTmWPf/ecmwf-T2m-us-27.png

12Z GFS is pretty much on board with that as well.

https://i.ibb.co/fCxFJWh/gfs-T2m-us-13.png

The only thing that would make it cool is things instantly freeze at -40. That is fun to see.

I remember as a kid reading an old weather book that described an experiment making snow in this giant freezer that was super cold. But, can only find info now on rather basic snow-crystal growth experiments at home. No idea what book that was anymore.

[Iceresistance]

06Z ECMWF has practically ALL of Montana -20 to -50 on Saturday morning. I honestly cannot fathom temperatures that cold, and hope I never have to experience such.

https://i.ibb.co/cDTmWPf/ecmwf-T2m-us-27.png

12Z GFS is pretty much on board with that as well.

https://i.ibb.co/fCxFJWh/gfs-T2m-us-13.png

The only issue with the GFS is that the GFS tends to be too fast with the storm systems and is too dry

[wxman57]

ICON is not as cold for Houston, too. I like the trend, but won't trust any model until maybe 12Z Sunday.

[KeriCarter]

06Z ECMWF has practically ALL of Montana -20 to -50 on Saturday morning. I honestly cannot fathom temperatures that cold, and hope I never have to experience such.

https://i.ibb.co/cDTmWPf/ecmwf-T2m-us-27.png

12Z GFS is pretty much on board with that as well.

https://i.ibb.co/fCxFJWh/gfs-T2m-us-13.png

The only thing that would make it cool is things instantly freeze at -40. That is fun to see.

I remember as a kid reading an old weather book that described an experiment making snow in this giant freezer that was super cold. But, can only find info now on rather basic snow-crystal growth experiments at home. No idea what book that was anymore.

If you end up remembering what book that was, I’d love to know. Our kiddos would have fun with that.