Texas Winter 2023-2024

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like we're getting a bit of a south/slower trend with the disturbance. Which means a little more digging. Also depth and location of cold probably will be a determinate factor.

Yes, baby steps on both the 12z GFS and CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024011012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

A little weird to me that the CMC is showing freezing rain with the 540 line. Shouldn't that at least be sleet?

[WacoWx]

06Z ECMWF has practically ALL of Montana -20 to -50 on Saturday morning. I honestly cannot fathom temperatures that cold, and hope I never have to experience such.

I am skiing that morning in Big Sky, MT...assuming that they open the mountain.

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like we're getting a bit of a south/slower trend with the disturbance. Which means a little more digging. Also depth and location of cold probably will be a determinate factor.

Yes, baby steps on both the 12z GFS and CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024011012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

A little weird to me that the CMC is showing freezing rain with the 540 line. Shouldn't that at least be sleet?

Artic air is shallow so maybe that's why.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we're getting a bit of a south/slower trend with the disturbance. Which means a little more digging. Also depth and location of cold probably will be a determinate factor.

Yes, baby steps on both the 12z GFS and CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024011012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

A little weird to me that the CMC is showing freezing rain with the 540 line. Shouldn't that at least be sleet?

It appears to be showing sleet.

[cheezyWXguy]

ICON is not as cold for Houston, too. I like the trend, but won't trust any model until maybe 12Z Sunday.

That run was bizarre to me, warmer than just about any run before it. It also seems really inconsistent with the strength, characteristics, and timing of the disturbance from run to run when looking at 500mb vorticity

[Anti-freeze]

A low water advisory for the Texas coast.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=HGX&wwa=low%20water%20advisory

Keep a watch out for the tsunami...

...Poseidon New Year's cruise returning to Galveston today.

[rwfromkansas]

Yes, baby steps on both the 12z GFS and CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024011012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

A little weird to me that the CMC is showing freezing rain with the 540 line. Shouldn't that at least be sleet?

It appears to be showing sleet.

Oh oops. I am slightly colorblind, which makes reading these models fun sometimes. Lol.

[wxman57]

ICON is not as cold for Houston, too. I like the trend, but won't trust any model until maybe 12Z Sunday.

That run was bizarre to me, warmer than just about any run before it. It also seems really inconsistent with the strength, characteristics, and timing of the disturbance from run to run when looking at 500mb vorticity

National Blend of Models (NBM) is similar. Only 25 Tuesday then 32 Wednesday in Houston. Like the trend, but don't trust anything this far out.

[orangeblood]

Looks like we're getting a bit of a south/slower trend with the disturbance. Which means a little more digging. Also depth and location of cold probably will be a determinate factor.

Yes, baby steps on both the 12z GFS and CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024011012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

A little weird to me that the CMC is showing freezing rain with the 540 line. Shouldn't that at least be sleet?

Thick above freezing nose aloft at the 850 & 700mb levels but really cold at surface, anything falling would instantly freeze on contact.

surface


850


700

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the 12z GEFS also trended in the positive direction. Still a lot of time to go

[bohai]

Does anyone know why the future forecasts on The Weather Channel and Accuweather are usually significantly different? Especially for the San Antonio, Boerne, and Kerrville area? I would assume they both would use NWS info but apparently not.

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1745137870606630941

[aggiecutter]

[Itryatgolf]

Looks like the 12z GEFS also trended in the positive direction. Still a lot of time to go

Why the mad face if it's in the positive direction?

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the 12z GEFS also trended in the positive direction. Still a lot of time to go

Why the mad face if it's in the positive direction?

That's for the "still a lot of time" b/c we know there will probably be some crazy model flips b/w now and then lol

[wxman57]

Looks like the 12z GEFS also trended in the positive direction. Still a lot of time to go

Yeah, only down to 31 in Houston Tuesday and 35 Wed. The trend isn't necessarily your friend this far out, though. The trend will be much more important Sat/Sun.

[Itryatgolf]

Looks like the 12z GEFS also trended in the positive direction. Still a lot of time to go

Why the mad face if it's in the positive direction?

That's for the "still a lot of time" b/c we know there will probably be some crazy model flips b/w now and then lol

Concisely I agree. Imo, we want the tpv to move away and not do the shredder cheddar lol

[bubba hotep]

Hmmmm...

[Harp.1]

Clear up something for me, please. My understanding that the vort that could give winter precip next week is still in the Pacific? If that’s the case, then we really won’t know anything more specific until this weekend.

[bubba hotep]

Also, the 12z Canadian tries to make a run at sub zero at DFW