Texas Winter 2023-2024

Winter Weather Discussion

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2121 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:58 pm

Personally, I think one of the coolest things about this whole board is the fact that when these fronts hit, we know exactly where they originated from, how long it's taken to get down here. And the fact that we're tasting air that basically came down from the stratosphere above the pole and into Texas. Same thing with the storm systems. Tracking this stuff is what really is exciting for me.

I seriously doubt much more than one percent of the population even realize that. And that might be a high number.
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2122 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:59 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Also, the 12z Canadian tries to make a run at sub zero at DFW :cold:


Scorpion will counter! Mortal Kombat!
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2123 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:02 pm

Harp.1 wrote:Clear up something for me, please. My understanding that the vort that could give winter precip next week is still in the Pacific? If that’s the case, then we really won’t know anything more specific until this weekend.


Yes. We are watching two areas - the TPV over Northern Canada and the wave out over the NPAC.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2124 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:11 pm

Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2125 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:13 pm

Not really, this bitter arctic blast is a 2-3 day thing, but ensembles are firmly in agreement that we stay cold through the 25th, pattern still looks good
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2126 Postby Gotwood » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:16 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.

Guess it all depends on blocking? And the teleconnections?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2127 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:18 pm

12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2128 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:19 pm

Euro definitely slower with s/w.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2129 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:19 pm

Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96


Yup. Slower with it too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2130 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:20 pm

Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96


Yeah, that allows the freezing line to push as far south as Austin before precip starts. It looks like anything that falls will be frozen.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2131 Postby Harp.1 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:21 pm

What is s/w?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2132 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:21 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96


Yeah, that allows the freezing line to push as far south as Austin before precip starts. It looks like anything that falls will be frozen.


That's been the correction I've been waiting for. Definitely more realistic with this setup.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2133 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:23 pm

Harp.1 wrote:What is s/w?


Shortwave trough. Usually referred to when the disturbance is on the smaller side.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2134 Postby Harp.1 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:24 pm

I thought so. Just checking. Thanks
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2135 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:26 pm

Image
Last edited by txtwister78 on Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2136 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:27 pm

Snow across North Texas with temps in the low 20s.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2137 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:30 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.



One model run isn’t a trend
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2138 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:32 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Not really, this bitter arctic blast is a 2-3 day thing, but ensembles are firmly in agreement that we stay cold through the 25th, pattern still looks good


I haven’t even looked at the models today. Just going by the vibe I’m getting from here and wxinfinity.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2139 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:33 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.



One model run isn’t a trend


The cold is going to be there. We've kind of departed that argument. Duration and intensity we just have to wait until super high res or when it moves out of Southern Canada. Now that the NWS is onboard can just follow their forecast. At this point, it'll just be back and forth pinching numbers instead of 55f vs 5f, it'll be 10f vs 20f (location dependent.) Looking for the precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2140 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:33 pm

Let's not forget the severe threat for folks along the gulf coast :double:

A threat for severe weather returns Thursday and Friday across the Gulf Coast and Southeast US.

Location: ArkLaTex to the Carolinas

Timing: Thursday night through Friday night

Main Threats: Widespread destructive wind gusts and potential for a few strong tornadoes.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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