Texas Winter 2023-2024
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Personally, I think one of the coolest things about this whole board is the fact that when these fronts hit, we know exactly where they originated from, how long it's taken to get down here. And the fact that we're tasting air that basically came down from the stratosphere above the pole and into Texas. Same thing with the storm systems. Tracking this stuff is what really is exciting for me.
I seriously doubt much more than one percent of the population even realize that. And that might be a high number.
I seriously doubt much more than one percent of the population even realize that. And that might be a high number.
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
bubba hotep wrote:Also, the 12z Canadian tries to make a run at sub zero at DFW
Scorpion will counter! Mortal Kombat!
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Harp.1 wrote:Clear up something for me, please. My understanding that the vort that could give winter precip next week is still in the Pacific? If that’s the case, then we really won’t know anything more specific until this weekend.
Yes. We are watching two areas - the TPV over Northern Canada and the wave out over the NPAC.

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Not really, this bitter arctic blast is a 2-3 day thing, but ensembles are firmly in agreement that we stay cold through the 25th, pattern still looks good
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Cpv17 wrote:Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.
Guess it all depends on blocking? And the teleconnections?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Euro definitely slower with s/w.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96
Yup. Slower with it too.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96
Yeah, that allows the freezing line to push as far south as Austin before precip starts. It looks like anything that falls will be frozen.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
bubba hotep wrote:Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro looks to be further south and digging more out west thru hour 96
Yeah, that allows the freezing line to push as far south as Austin before precip starts. It looks like anything that falls will be frozen.
That's been the correction I've been waiting for. Definitely more realistic with this setup.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Harp.1 wrote:What is s/w?
Shortwave trough. Usually referred to when the disturbance is on the smaller side.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

Last edited by txtwister78 on Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Snow across North Texas with temps in the low 20s.


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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Cpv17 wrote:Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.
One model run isn’t a trend
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Stratton23 wrote:Not really, this bitter arctic blast is a 2-3 day thing, but ensembles are firmly in agreement that we stay cold through the 25th, pattern still looks good
I haven’t even looked at the models today. Just going by the vibe I’m getting from here and wxinfinity.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.
One model run isn’t a trend
The cold is going to be there. We've kind of departed that argument. Duration and intensity we just have to wait until super high res or when it moves out of Southern Canada. Now that the NWS is onboard can just follow their forecast. At this point, it'll just be back and forth pinching numbers instead of 55f vs 5f, it'll be 10f vs 20f (location dependent.) Looking for the precip.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Let's not forget the severe threat for folks along the gulf coast
A threat for severe weather returns Thursday and Friday across the Gulf Coast and Southeast US.
Location: ArkLaTex to the Carolinas
Timing: Thursday night through Friday night
Main Threats: Widespread destructive wind gusts and potential for a few strong tornadoes.

A threat for severe weather returns Thursday and Friday across the Gulf Coast and Southeast US.
Location: ArkLaTex to the Carolinas
Timing: Thursday night through Friday night
Main Threats: Widespread destructive wind gusts and potential for a few strong tornadoes.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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