Texas Winter 2023-2024

[orangeblood]

Also, the 12z Canadian tries to make a run at sub zero at DFW

DFW record low of 11F on both Monday and Tuesday in jeopardy...breaking all-time January records should get everyone's attention

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS has another Arctic Front next Saturday(20th):

[Cpv17]

Overall it looks like the trend has been pretty bad regarding the duration of the cold. Looking like Dec 22 is my takeaway from today so far.

One model run isn’t a trend

Well you know that I know that lol I was referring to the vibe I’m getting and not the models.

[aggiecutter]

12Z GFS also starting to come in agreement with the EURO as far as winter precipitation for NE Texas:

[Tireman4]

Let's not forget the severe threat for folks along the gulf coast

A threat for severe weather returns Thursday and Friday across the Gulf Coast and Southeast US.

Location: ArkLaTex to the Carolinas

Timing: Thursday night through Friday night

Main Threats: Widespread destructive wind gusts and potential for a few strong tornadoes.

[Stratton23]

2.5 day overrunning event on the Euro, much slower with the progression of the shortwave trough

[Harp.1]

2.5 day overrunning event on the Euro, much slower with the progression of the shortwave trough

Wow

[vbhoutex]

​This is SE TX centric. Going to be quite cold but not into the single digits hopefully. Cold air masses like this one usually arrive sooner than expected and temperatures can easily be a few degrees below forecast.
MAKE ANY PREPARATIONS NEEDED EARLY!

Lindner, Jeff (Flood Control)
​
Wed 1/10/2024 7:38 AM
Arctic air mass will arrive into SE TX late Sunday and remain in place early next week.

Preparations for sub-freezing temperatures including a hard freeze (24F or lower for 2 hrs or more) should begin with protections that require longer lead times.

A very cold arctic air mass will be dislodged out of NW Canada late this week and enter the US northern plains this weekend and then plow southward down the plains into Texas on Sunday. Current timing brings the front into SE TX Sunday evening and off the coast by midnight with temperatures quickly falling to freezing by Monday morning sunrise. Such dense cold air masses usually are faster than the global guidance indicates and the front could reach SE TX Sunday afternoon…we will be coming into the range of the better shorter guidance over the next 24-36 hours which will help add confidence to the frontal timing.

Cold air mass will quickly surge into the region Sunday night with freezing conditions over many areas by Monday morning. Strong cold air advection will limit warming on Monday with highs struggling to reach the mid and upper 30’s over the area…some locations north of HWY 105 may remain below freezing throughout the day on Monday.

With cold arctic high pressure overhead into Monday night/Tuesday morning a hard freeze is likely for many areas. Upper 10’s/low 20’s north of HWY 105, Low-mid 20’s north of I-10 and mid to upper 20’s across the coastal areas. There is still some uncertainty on how cold temperatures may fall and this depends on several factors (cloud cover, winds, and intensity of the air mass) which can change over the next 4-5 days. Another freeze and possible hard freeze is likely Tuesday night/Wednesday AM. Many locations will experience greater than 10-15 hours below freezing and these durations will be fine tuned in the coming days.

A quick look back and comparison to the outbreaks of Feb 2021 and Dec 2022 suggest this upcoming event will be warmer than both of those events with respect to overnight low temperatures.
Feb 2021: 10-13 degrees warmer
Dec 2022: 5-8 degrees warmer

Precipitation:

There will likely be some showers along and ahead of the front on Sunday evening, but most of the guidance indicates any rainfall ending prior to the arrival of temperatures that would be cause for any winter precipitation. The EMCWF continues to advertise a wetter post frontal air mass, but has little support from the other global guidance and if anything has trended drier in the recent runs. While not completely zero, the threat for any freezing or frozen precipitation at this time looks low.

Preparations:

Precautions to protect infrastructure, animals/livestock, plants, and people will be needed. Any winterization situations that require longer lead times should be underway. Similar preparations that were completed for the cold air outbreak in Dec 2022 should be considered for this event. All winterization efforts should be completed by Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[bubba hotep]

2.5 day overrunning event on the Euro, much slower with the progression of the shortwave trough

Almost all of this falls as frozen precip except for the far southern extent. It looks like a long-duration freezing rain/drizzle event for Central Texas out into the Hill Country.

[Stratton23]

Linders update looks good though not sure why hes saying the euro has no support for winter weather when the CMC is fully on board , also euro is trending wetter down here

[Harp.1]

Just pray that it’s sleet and not freezing rain.

[Ntxw]

2.5 day overrunning event on the Euro, much slower with the progression of the shortwave trough

Almost all of this falls as frozen precip except for the far southern extent. It looks like a long-duration freezing rain/drizzle event for Central Texas out into the Hill Country.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024011012/144/qpf_048h-imp.us_sc.png

We only needed 0.14" qpf in 2021 for 4" of snow. I'd watch the 850mb front, it will have a say where the disturbance may end up tracking.

[Ralph's Weather]

Friday morning has some potential for a band of post frontal snow though most models do not have enough moisture to get it to the ground south of the Red River. I wouldn't be shocked if some get a few mood flakes though.

[txtwister78]

Definitely trending with more precip on both the Euro Ens and Control compared to the previous few runs.

[Haris]

EPS trending wetter; more ice and snow for the stat

If cold air indeed does arrive faster, expect the blues to come south and more widespread ice for south and central Texas

[Brent]

Sunday may be a full blown winter storm here and it's gonna be like 15 degrees. It's gonna stick to everything. Roads were wet yesterday

[rwfromkansas]

Sunday may be a full blown winter storm here and it's gonna be like 15 degrees. It's gonna stick to everything. Roads were wet yesterday

For you you may get hefty totals if we take it verbatim since you will likely have really good ratios. I hope it comes through for you.

[Stratton23]

EPS stays cold and very active even after this surge of bitter arctic air, warm up doesnt occur until after the 25th

[wxman57]

All 12Z models plotted for Houston (don't care so much how cold it gets in D-FW). There was a decided warming between 00Z and 12Z. I added the National Blend of Models (NBM) using big purple dots. Canadian is really out there - WAY colder than any other model, as it was (wrongly here) in 2021 and 2022). I didn't monitor it for anywhere but Houston back then.

Even though the "trend" is warmer, the event is still 5-6 days out. I wouldn't put too much stock in a trend until Sat/Sun when we can get a look at what kind of air is on the move. For now, it's biding its time in northern Canada, trying to decide what model it likes best.

[wxman57]

Here are some assorted ECMWF precip forecasts.

First is snowfall:


Next is freezing rain (which includes sleet). Chance of a few sleet pellets across SE Texas, but surface temps Monday morning will be well above freezing.


Finally, ensembles snowfall: