Texas Winter 2023-2024

[txtwister78]

About as strong a signal as we've seen from the CMC Ens members thus far.

[Cpv17]

I got something funny with y'all with the 12z Euro Kuchera Snowfall map

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0wNV.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0wNV.png

Lmao!!

[Fifty Rock]

I got something funny with y'all with the 12z Euro Kuchera Snowfall map

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0wNV.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0wNV.png

Wow…. Ice, it looks like you’re about to get the mother load…….

[Ntxw]

One thing is converging. Frontal passage for NTX is Sat evening/night. Quickly falls through to teens well before disturbance comes. Any qpf for sure is frozen.

Most of Central TX is too on Euro, below freezing.

[txtwister78]

I think both globals are still too "warm" (GFS/Euro). ICON and Canadian may be extremes but they definitely have a better handle as it relates to the speed/progress of the arctic air making its way into Texas. NAM will probably be our best short-range model as is typically the case with these events.

[vxskaxv]

As a Dedicated volunteer first responder who preps to do my thing and assist those in great need, I find zero humor in any of the supposed humor posts in this thread. I’m not trying to hate on anyone here but I’d like to see way less crud like post #2220 and more of the serious conversation posts.

This impending Arctic system has the means to affect millions across the US and obviously there will be tragedies and property damage for some and once again see no humor in this current situation. I get the need to throw out bits of humorous verbiage occasionally to break up the discussion but this is not the right topic thread for such behavior.

Countless groups and businesses and individuals are out preparing homes and infrastructures as I speak at their expenses and worrying about their fellow neighbors and families and friends in multiple locations. My personal list is huge of things I need to do and help others get ready for and one of the aforementioned things is that of a dear friend that has a daughter-in-law that is very near pregnancy completion in the Conroe area. And god forbid that this system takes power out at her place and the roads are difficult to navigate from and ice or sleet it’s going to be important to get to her to keep her and the future kiddo warm immediately. We all remember too well what transpired in 2021 in Texas.

Please keep the seriousness of this conversation at the forefront and post good informative content only. I pray for everyone’s health and property here and wish everyone the best over the next several days.

[Stratton23]

Yeah surface temps are going to wreck havoc on the globals, euro definitely is too warm

[Harp.1]

Does the Euro still show a winter storm of sorts? Was at a gig tonight and trying to catch up.

[Stratton23]

vxskaxv no one is down playing the seriousness of this cold and its effects it could have, we all take it seriously, a little humor here and there in this forum is fine, you still get plenty of great discussions here

[cheezyWXguy]

As a Dedicated volunteer first responder who preps to do my thing and assist those in great need, I find zero humor in any of the supposed humor posts in this thread. I’m not trying to hate on anyone here but I’d like to see way less crud like post #2220 and more of the serious conversation posts.

This impending Arctic system has the means to affect millions across the US and obviously there will be tragedies and property damage for some and once again see no humor in this current situation. I get the need to throw out bits of humorous verbiage occasionally to break up the discussion but this is not the right topic thread for such behavior.

Countless groups and businesses and individuals are out preparing homes and infrastructures as I speak at their expenses and worrying about their fellow neighbors and families and friends in multiple locations. My personal list is huge of things I need to do and help others get ready for and one of the aforementioned things is that of a dear friend that has a daughter-in-law that is very near pregnancy completion in the Conroe area. And god forbid that this system takes power out at her place and the roads are difficult to navigate from and ice or sleet it’s going to be important to get to her to keep her and the future kiddo warm immediately. We all remember too well what transpired in 2021 in Texas.

Please keep the seriousness of this conversation at the forefront and post good informative content only. I pray for everyone’s health and property here and wish everyone the best over the next several days.

This board is actively moderated to keep posts within reasonable discussion. Personally, I don’t see anything out of line. If you don’t like a post or poster, you have the ability to mute them by clicking their profile and adding them as a “foe”.

[Tammie]

As a Dedicated volunteer first responder who preps to do my thing and assist those in great need, I find zero humor in any of the supposed humor posts in this thread. I’m not trying to hate on anyone here but I’d like to see way less crud like post #2220 and more of the serious conversation posts.

This impending Arctic system has the means to affect millions across the US and obviously there will be tragedies and property damage for some and once again see no humor in this current situation. I get the need to throw out bits of humorous verbiage occasionally to break up the discussion but this is not the right topic thread for such behavior.

Countless groups and businesses and individuals are out preparing homes and infrastructures as I speak at their expenses and worrying about their fellow neighbors and families and friends in multiple locations. My personal list is huge of things I need to do and help others get ready for and one of the aforementioned things is that of a dear friend that has a daughter-in-law that is very near pregnancy completion in the Conroe area. And god forbid that this system takes power out at her place and the roads are difficult to navigate from and ice or sleet it’s going to be important to get to her to keep her and the future kiddo warm immediately. We all remember too well what transpired in 2021 in Texas.

Please keep the seriousness of this conversation at the forefront and post good informative content only. I pray for everyone’s health and property here and wish everyone the best over the next several days.

This board is actively moderated to keep posts within reasonable discussion. Personally, I don’t see anything out of line. If you don’t like a post or poster, you have the ability to mute them by clicking their profile and adding them as a “foe”.

As a mother of 8 and a grandmother of 18, all of whom reside in Texas, no one takes these weather predictions more seriously than I do. I lost a son in February of last year during inclement weather in Fort Worth. He died on impact (the accident was not his fault).

vxskaxv, While I appreciate your role as a “volunteer first responder”, last year the world lost an army vet, I lost a child, and my 14-year-old grand daughter lost her daddy. I know better than most that sometimes, humor is the best form of medicine.

While your concerns over the upcoming event is palpable, calling out the poster on #2220 is not. I am in 100% agreement with cheezyWXguy‘s response to you. The moderators have a job to do, and they do it consistently and their efforts are above reproach.

We have a certain comradery on this forum due to the length of time most of us have spent here. I know it’s acceptable to make fun of a certain Houston Heat Miser cyclist, and nobody (including him) is going to be offended. We can laugh at wonky model runs and get nervous when we think it’s a valid run. We all know the potential seriousness of the upcoming event. We are also very passionate about alerting others of the potential risks. In my opinion, Storm2K is exemplary. If vxskaxv finds our humor distasteful, feel free to hop off.

All that being said, as I approach the one year anniversary of my son’s death, a note to my Storm2K family: Don’t change a thing!

[WacoWx]

TWC says “…watching for potential winter storm” now for Sunday night here in Dallas.

iPhone weather app is getting us back to below freezing for highs again NEXT weekend.

[Tammie]

TWC says “…watching for potential winter storm” now for Sunday night here in Dallas.

iPhone weather app is getting us back to below freezing for highs again NEXT weekend.

Just checked The Weather Channel for Sherman, and they are saying 1” Sunday and up to 3” of snow Sunday night! Too good to be true…. Maybe????

[CaptinCrunch]

Our friend Steve McCauley

Enjoy the warmth of your Thursday (temps approaching 70°F !) because the first batch of cold air arrives before the sun comes up Friday morning. Some areas of light to moderate rain - especially for the eastern half of north Texas - will accompany the colder air Thursday night, but will end before it gets cold enough to freeze.

This first batch of cold air will just give us a modest blow of chilly temps with highs not getting out of the 40s for Friday afternoon and temps in the 20s by Saturday morning.

We should make a decent recovery into the 50s for Saturday afternoon, but a much colder batch of air will then move in Saturday evening, and it is all downhill from there.

It still appears we stay below freezing Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. And unfortunately, it still appears temperatures bottom out in the single digits and lower teens Monday and Tuesday morning with wind chills below zero come Monday morning.

Precipitation appears to stay on the light side, but it could be freezing drizzle, and as we all know, it does not take much of that to be a problem. The "heaviest" will be in the eastern half of north Texas with some snow in the northern counties, though it would not be impossible for some flakes to fall locally.

To our north in the eastern third of Oklahoma into Arkansas, several inches of snow are expected.

We should finally climb above freezing by Wednesday afternoon.

When I told my students last week that the North Pole was coming to Texas to start off the spring semester next week, I got some blank stares. I could see we had some unbelievers. I think they will soon recognize the power of statistics and math

[gboudx]

As a Dedicated volunteer first responder who preps to do my thing and assist those in great need, I find zero humor in any of the supposed humor posts in this thread. I’m not trying to hate on anyone here but I’d like to see way less crud like post #2220 and more of the serious conversation posts.

This impending Arctic system has the means to affect millions across the US and obviously there will be tragedies and property damage for some and once again see no humor in this current situation. I get the need to throw out bits of humorous verbiage occasionally to break up the discussion but this is not the right topic thread for such behavior.

Countless groups and businesses and individuals are out preparing homes and infrastructures as I speak at their expenses and worrying about their fellow neighbors and families and friends in multiple locations. My personal list is huge of things I need to do and help others get ready for and one of the aforementioned things is that of a dear friend that has a daughter-in-law that is very near pregnancy completion in the Conroe area. And god forbid that this system takes power out at her place and the roads are difficult to navigate from and ice or sleet it’s going to be important to get to her to keep her and the future kiddo warm immediately. We all remember too well what transpired in 2021 in Texas.

Please keep the seriousness of this conversation at the forefront and post good informative content only. I pray for everyone’s health and property here and wish everyone the best over the next several days.

Don’t visit the Spring thread on this forum, because you’ll see posters looking forward to seeing supercell tstorms, despite the damage, pain and suffering they cause. I bow out of this forum after Winter for that reason.

ERCOT says they’re ready and this won’t be a repeat of Feb 21. I think I speak for everyone when I say, I certainly hope they’re right. But we have more firewood and food just in case they’re too optimistic.

[gboudx]

Jeff Lindners update for SETX.

Significant cold air intrusion will arrive this weekend…with very cold temperatures for early next week.

Cold weather preparations should be underway and complete by Saturday.

Overnight we came within the time range of the NAM guidance and it is showing a much faster frontal passage than any of the global guidance. While not prefect, the NAM usually handles these cold dense air masses better than the larger grid global guidance. The NAM has the front to the northern edge of SE TX by midnight Saturday and sweeps the boundary through the region and off the coast Sunday morning about 12-18 hours faster than previous forecasts. History with these arctic fronts suggests the NAM is likely handling this timing better and we should be prepared for the front to arrive as early as Sunday morning…there will be more confidence in the frontal timing in the next 24 hours as we begin to fall into the range of the higher resolution guidance.

Post frontal strong cold air advection will drive temperatures downward quickly and again following the NAM guidance has much of the area falling into and through the 30’s during the day on Sunday and then quickly on below freezing Sunday late afternoon/early evening…this could be a bit slow and some of the north and western areas could fall to and below freezing during the day on Sunday.

Cold arctic air mass will be entrenched by Sunday evening with a widespread freeze almost certain for much of the area Sunday night/Monday AM and a hard freeze (24F or lower for 2hrs) for areas along and north of I-10. Many locations look to endure many hours below freezing and there are questions on Monday for how long and how much portions of the area even get above freezing.

Coldest night looks to be Monday night/Tuesday AM with a widespread hard freeze across much of the area (maybe minus the coast). Lows into the upper 10’s down toward the US 59 corridor and even mid 20’s to the coast.

Strong northerly winds post front will drive cold wind chills across the area with values in the 10’s and maybe lower.

This cold air outbreak is looking similar in intensity and duration to the December 2022 event.

As for any precipitation…there continues to be an outside chance of some light precipitation in the Sunday night/Monday morning time period. Guidance continues to have hints of this, but there is not much confidence. Thinking if anything were to occur it would be light and favor areas north of I-10. Hopefully the higher resolution guidance will add some confidence to this aspect over the next 1-2 days.

Preparations:

Cold weather preparations for infrastructure (exposed pipes and sprinkler systems), pets/livestock, plants, and people should be underway. Proper winterization efforts will help to mitigate damages from the cold. Complete preparations by Saturday evening.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

As a Dedicated volunteer first responder who preps to do my thing and assist those in great need, I find zero humor in any of the supposed humor posts in this thread. I’m not trying to hate on anyone here but I’d like to see way less crud like post #2220 and more of the serious conversation posts.

This impending Arctic system has the means to affect millions across the US and obviously there will be tragedies and property damage for some and once again see no humor in this current situation. I get the need to throw out bits of humorous verbiage occasionally to break up the discussion but this is not the right topic thread for such behavior.

Countless groups and businesses and individuals are out preparing homes and infrastructures as I speak at their expenses and worrying about their fellow neighbors and families and friends in multiple locations. My personal list is huge of things I need to do and help others get ready for and one of the aforementioned things is that of a dear friend that has a daughter-in-law that is very near pregnancy completion in the Conroe area. And god forbid that this system takes power out at her place and the roads are difficult to navigate from and ice or sleet it’s going to be important to get to her to keep her and the future kiddo warm immediately. We all remember too well what transpired in 2021 in Texas.

Please keep the seriousness of this conversation at the forefront and post good informative content only. I pray for everyone’s health and property here and wish everyone the best over the next several days.

Don’t visit the Spring thread on this forum, because you’ll see posters looking forward to seeing supercell tstorms, despite the damage, pain and suffering they cause. I bow out of this forum after Winter for that reason.

ERCOT says they’re ready and this won’t be a repeat of Feb 21. I think I speak for everyone when I say, I certainly hope they’re right. But we have more firewood and food just in case they’re too optimistic.

There is nothing inherently wrong with marveling at the enormous natural forces at play. In all of the years I have followed this website, I have never seen anyone hoping to see damage, pain and suffering. It is not like anyone has unique powers to either enable or disable destructive natural events. Some folks, including myself, are amazed by natural events beyond our control and take an interest in reading quality analysis of how/why such an event unfolds. No harm in that.

[Portastorm]

Alright gang let’s get back to weather posts please. Lord knows we have plenty of weather to talk about!

I’ve not seen any posts that require Moderator action in this thread. As always, if a member has a concern about another poster or post … you can use the “Report” feature on this forum and Mods/Admins will investigate further.

Nuff said. Carry on friends.

[Brent]

So about that winter storm GFS Kuchera map still crazy here. Maybe the 0z wasn't a fluke run

[Gotwood]

Man GFS setting up nicely for multiple shots of winter weather the rest of the month. One or two of these are bound to hit.