Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

GFS getting a little bit of a reality check, mid afternoon Saturday frontal passage. I remember some runs over the weekend it wouldn't send a front until Monday morning .

This is loop of recent trend. What shift? But who really banked it early?

[jaguars_22]

Latest gfs showing more precip now…

[Ntxw]

Models are also separating the diving vorticity coming down from the north late Monday. In such a cold air mass, wouldn't be surprised if it produced some precip in the settled cold. Would not take much.

[bubba hotep]

[orangeblood]

Models are also separating the diving vorticity coming down from the north late Monday. In such a cold air mass, wouldn't be surprised if it produced some precip in the settled cold. Would not take much.

Showing a decent amount of sleet accumulation at this time but light snow probably more likely (probably wise to shift all these below maps south quite a bit)...what a mess this will be for those attending the Dallas Cowboy playoff game Sunday late afternoon!!!

[Ntxw]

Models are also separating the diving vorticity coming down from the north late Monday. In such a cold air mass, wouldn't be surprised if it produced some precip in the settled cold. Would not take much.

Showing a decent amount of sleet accumulation at this time but light snow probably more likely (probably wise to shift all these below maps south quite a bit)...what a mess this will be for those attending the Dallas Cowboy playoff game Sunday late afternoon!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1704974400/1705395600-VNSjtxk9RY8.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1704974400/1705395600-Gn2xrLTiMqY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1704974400/1705395600-HWyQhq6iGkw.png

Sounding on the model barely has a tiny little warmth above freezing between 850mb-700mb. Conventional method you would think snow.

Canadian is sleeting with a bigger warm nose above 850mb but surface is ~15F. How many times have we seen sleet at 15F?

[orangeblood]

Canadian much heavier with QPF amounts, approaching winter storm criteria for some in North Texas

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are also separating the diving vorticity coming down from the north late Monday. In such a cold air mass, wouldn't be surprised if it produced some precip in the settled cold. Would not take much.

Showing a decent amount of sleet accumulation at this time but light snow probably more likely (probably wise to shift all these below maps south quite a bit)...what a mess this will be for those attending the Dallas Cowboy playoff game Sunday late afternoon!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1704974400/1705395600-VNSjtxk9RY8.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1704974400/1705395600-Gn2xrLTiMqY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1704974400/1705395600-HWyQhq6iGkw.png

Shift those south maybe another 100mi and also factor in higher ratio snows on north end and this could be a pretty significant storm.

[orangeblood]

Models are also separating the diving vorticity coming down from the north late Monday. In such a cold air mass, wouldn't be surprised if it produced some precip in the settled cold. Would not take much.

Showing a decent amount of sleet accumulation at this time but light snow probably more likely (probably wise to shift all these below maps south quite a bit)...what a mess this will be for those attending the Dallas Cowboy playoff game Sunday late afternoon!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1704974400/1705395600-VNSjtxk9RY8.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1704974400/1705395600-Gn2xrLTiMqY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1704974400/1705395600-HWyQhq6iGkw.png

Sounding on the model barely has a tiny little warmth above freezing between 850mb-700mb. Conventional method you would think snow.

Canadian is sleeting with a bigger warm nose above 850mb but surface is ~15F. How many times have we seen sleet at 15F?

Yeah, doubtful that's sleet...need to look at the DGZ

[Ntxw]

GFS late week. While there may be a separation between the two blasts, this will be one of the greatest handoff stretches, no less an El Nino. 1050s early week to nearly 1058mb high late in the week.

[HockeyTx82]

Models are also separating the diving vorticity coming down from the north late Monday. In such a cold air mass, wouldn't be surprised if it produced some precip in the settled cold. Would not take much.

Showing a decent amount of sleet accumulation at this time but light snow probably more likely (probably wise to shift all these below maps south quite a bit)...what a mess this will be for those attending the Dallas Cowboy playoff game Sunday late afternoon!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1704974400/1705395600-VNSjtxk9RY8.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1704974400/1705395600-Gn2xrLTiMqY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1704974400/1705395600-HWyQhq6iGkw.png

Go figure last time Green Bay came to town to have a big game in AT&T stadium, we had ice and snow on the ground.

Only difference is the Cowboys were not playing in that one.

(And yes I'm a Cowboys fan)

[Ntxw]

If there is snow and ice on the ground, some may experience ~160+ hours near/below freezing.

[Ntxw]

[bubba hotep]

Canadian much heavier with QPF amounts, approaching winter storm criteria for some in North Texas

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1704974400/1705330800-ijSje4cO8Is.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1704974400/1705320000-MY0SfTvl5Io.png

Was just coming to post that. FWD has been playing the conservative approach, leaning on the dryer solutions. If the Euro is on board, I would think we might see significant changes with the afternoon package or maybe they wait until the Friday of a holiday weekend to make big changes?

[rwfromkansas]

Just a little bit more west please. I am kind of borderline here in Tarrant, though even a tiny bit will be hazardous. Just need enough that I can get off Tuesday as well. Don't want to drive in this... Monday is already a holiday.

I just hope we don't have something canceling school with any further cold blasts on the 23rd since I have club photos scheduled at school.

[SnowintheFalls]

Models are also separating the diving vorticity coming down from the north late Monday. In such a cold air mass, wouldn't be surprised if it produced some precip in the settled cold. Would not take much.

Showing a decent amount of sleet accumulation at this time but light snow probably more likely (probably wise to shift all these below maps south quite a bit)...what a mess this will be for those attending the Dallas Cowboy playoff game Sunday late afternoon!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1704974400/1705395600-VNSjtxk9RY8.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1704974400/1705395600-Gn2xrLTiMqY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1704974400/1705395600-HWyQhq6iGkw.png

Shift those south maybe another 100mi and also factor in higher ratio snows on north end and this could be a pretty significant storm.

Maybe a SW shift as Wichita Falls is right on the cusp of getting in on the precipitation.

[rwfromkansas]

Showing a decent amount of sleet accumulation at this time but light snow probably more likely (probably wise to shift all these below maps south quite a bit)...what a mess this will be for those attending the Dallas Cowboy playoff game Sunday late afternoon!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1704974400/1705395600-VNSjtxk9RY8.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1704974400/1705395600-Gn2xrLTiMqY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1704974400/1705395600-HWyQhq6iGkw.png

Shift those south maybe another 100mi and also factor in higher ratio snows on north end and this could be a pretty significant storm.

Maybe a SW shift as Wichita Falls is right on the cusp of getting in on the precipitation.

We need this to dig a bit more for sure if we want a bigger event. I am more confident currently that it will be more snow than sleet, so bring it so long as there is not a crippling ice storm further south.

[Ralph's Weather]

Wont take much more of a shift to make this a sleet that quickly changes over to snow event for many which shifts the bigger ice threat down south into SE TX.

[jaguars_22]

I wanna say that the rgem is showing the sw moving slower as well?? If im looking at the right maps…

[Ntxw]

I know we're all interested in precip, but guys, we have potentially a legendary stretch of cold especially if the coldest outcomes are favored early on.