Texas Winter 2023-2024

[jaguars_22]

Stratton- I know it lol but he sounds so serious about none, zilch, nada and then a model comes out and boom blizzard

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Nam is most likely not going to happen!! That’s too far south… and wxman said no ice for se Texas so we’re good

That’s a totally different feature that over runs the cold air already in place. Not sure what it’s picking up though.

STJ and a cold front can squeeze pretty easily.

[dhweather]

Here's a work in process meteogram = I've modified the original wxman57 GFS spreadsheet to use the hourly GFS output through 384 hours.

[Snowman67]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

We've had nearly 30 conference calls today, and now we have an active TC in South Indian Ocean. Plus, I just rode my bike back from the Red River, adding a few more bricks to the wall.

Just finished plotting all models from 12Z runs for central Houston. Trend is clouds hanging in longer down here Tuesday, which may not allow the temperature to rise much above freezing. Note that only 6am, 12pm, and 6pm temps are plotted below. High will be around 3pm Tuesday. It all depends on when the clouds break out Tuesday PM. No winter precip for us down here, except for chance of a few sleet pellets Monday night before freezing temps arrive.

NWS National Blend of Models still keeps frozen precip NE of the D-FW area, I see. Note that I am adding in the NAM for my next plot. It only goes out to 6pm Sunday, the start of the plot below. It has 36F for that time, which is way colder than the other models. Those models are likely too slow with the front. Heck, the wacky Canadian has 69F for 6pm Sunday. It's likely WAY too cold for Tue/Wed. Possibly 20F too cold.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZJan11HOU.JPG

As far as precip goes, are you giving the "all clear" for areas north of the Houston metro area (i.e. Tomball)?

[jaguars_22]

Another idea is that we don’t know what can come out of Mexico either.. surprises surprises

[Fifty Rock]

Nam is most likely not going to happen!! That’s too far south… and wxman said no ice for se Texas so we’re good

That’s a totally different feature that over runs the cold air already in place. Not sure what it’s picking up though.

Subtropical jet. El Nino, remember? There's usually a plume of moisture sitting off the west coast of MX. Any disturbance has the opportunity to tap it.

https://i.imgur.com/hoeZyj4.gif

Great image, let's hope Mother Nature is in the mood to tap it and doesn't need a few aspirin instead.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z icon finally joins the group bringing frozen precip south of the red river. It isn’t much, but it’s something.

[CaptinCrunch]

I think we will continue to see the trend of more precip south of the Red River as the models zero in with better data and timing

[JDawg512]

Taylor Swift is awesome, I like her a lot.

I really hope we don't see any frozen precipitation in Austin. I still have PTSD from last winter.

[DallasAg]

I think we will continue to see the trend of more precip south of the Red River as the models zero in with better data and timing

FWD bumping up POPs for Dallas County from 20% to 50% with the afternoon package. Pretty big increase. Though they're showing the Ptype as freezing rain and not sleet.

[Fifty Rock]

Taylor Swift is awesome, I like her a lot.

I really hope we don't see any frozen precipitation in Austin. I still have PTSD from last winter.

I have PTSD from BOTH.

[Ralph's Weather]

I think we will continue to see the trend of more precip south of the Red River as the models zero in with better data and timing

FWD bumping up POPs for Dallas County from 20% to 50% with the afternoon package. Pretty big increase. Though they're showing the Ptype as freezing rain and not sleet.

NWS SHV also buying in with 50% chance of Mix and also dropped low to 9 Tue morning for me in Lindale.

[orangeblood]

getting into NAM range when precip starting to break out Sunday....18Z NAM forecast sounding cold enough for snow DFW, sleet from Austin to College Station, frz rain San Antonio to Houston

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just a throwback to 2021.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/VTB7vfc/2021021012-ZGFS.png [/url]

The first time I witnessed an actual temp of -10 here!

[jaguars_22]

Looks like the latest GFS is even slower with the SW...

[rwfromkansas]

FWD bumped my precip to 40 percent and a low of 9 Monday night. Brrr.

[kirium]

I'm not sure what the models are saying for Oklahoma City (specifically the northern suburbs of OKC/Edmond) but I noticed the NOAA.gov forecast has just jumped our snow forecast for sunday/monday from about 1" total to about 4" total. Curious to watch if that increases or not. They've all said very cold for quite some time, but it appears here (Edmond/N OKC) the first front comes through tonight and we may see 1/2" of snow in the morning.

[txtwister78]

Pretty safe bet now that where global models have frozen precip depicted will likely end up being further south closer to the 18z NAM as mentioned earlier. Good news is Hi-Res models will start to come into play tomorrow evening and especially on Saturday.

[Brent]

I'm not sure what the models are saying for Oklahoma City (specifically the northern suburbs of OKC/Edmond) but I noticed the NOAA.gov forecast has just jumped our snow forecast for sunday/monday from about 1" total to about 4" total. Curious to watch if that increases or not. They've all said very cold for quite some time, but it appears here (Edmond/N OKC) the first front comes through tonight and we may see 1/2" of snow in the morning.

Tulsa was very uncertain in the AFD they said before the 12z runs they thought beyond 4 inches was possible but now they are saying based off the 12z runs it could be closer to 2 I guess we'll see. The one thing is with the blowing and drifting I'm not so sure it'll be easy to measure anyway

The 18z GFS looks to be on the high end again

[mmmmsnouts]

For the football watchers the Chiefs Dolphins game is going to be incredibly cold on Sunday. One of the coldest in NFL history. Ouch. I'll have an all day fire while watching the playoffs.

Dolphins-Chiefs is Saturday night. Might be below zero by the end of that game. Miami is going to be very sorry they didn’t win last week.

Then Sunday afternoon we get Steelers-Bills in a near blizzard in Buffalo!