SIO: BELAL - Remnants

[cycloneye]

IO, 97, 2024010118, , BEST, 0, 70N, 652E, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, A, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 972023.dat

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S
62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 583 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW CUMULIFORM CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY INTO THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
FIELDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD MAURITIUS AS IT STEADILY
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

→ A suspicious area is starting to take shape more than 1000 km north-northeast of Reunion, east of Agalega.

→ An evolution into a tropical storm (future storm BELAL) is envisaged by Saturday with a trajectory which will bring this system closer to the Great Mascarenes (Reunion - Mauritius) this weekend for a passage estimated for the time being, as close as possible of the islands, between late night from Sunday to Monday and Monday evening.

-> At this deadline (approximately 3-4 days), the uncertainties in the trajectory forecast are still significant (of the order of 250 km) so that it is still difficult to decide on a distance of passage to the closer.

→ This system, once formed, will find itself in conditions favorable to its intensification. It is therefore likely a mature system (probably at the tropical cyclone stage) which will transit near the two sister islands.

→ A gradual deterioration of the sensitive weather is therefore expected over the next weekend, in terms of wind and swell and precipitation. Given the current uncertainty in the trajectory forecast, this degradation will be refined over the coming hours.

Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION,

Center positioned on 01/12 at 4 p.m. local, at 13.8 South / 58.6 East.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/13 at 4 p.m. local, at 16.5 South / 56.1 East.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/14 at 4 p.m. local time, at 18.6 South / 55.7 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/15 at 4 p.m. local time, at 20.3 South / 57.2 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/16 at 4 p.m. local, at 22.1 South / 60.2 East

-------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6S 62.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 59.9E APPROXIMATELY 461 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND A 110930Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
(5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1745557056705167370

[cycloneye]

Is organizing.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE number 2

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1004 hPa.

Position on January 12 at 10 a.m. local: 13.0 South / 57.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 905 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1350 km to sector: EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 22 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical disturbance 02-20232024 continues to take shape nearly 900 km north-northeast of Reunion, south of Agalega.

- An evolution into a tropical storm (future storm BELAL) is envisaged by next night with a trajectory which will bring this system closer to the Great Mascarenes (Reunion - Mauritius) this weekend. A passage as close as possible to these islands is currently planned between late night from Sunday to Monday and Monday evening. At this time (approximately 3 days), the uncertainties are still significant so that it is still difficult to decide on a closest passage distance.

- This system, once formed, will find itself in conditions favorable to its intensification. It is therefore likely a mature system (probably at the tropical cyclone stage or more) which will transit near the two sister islands.

- A gradual deterioration of the sensitive weather is therefore expected over the next weekend, in terms of wind, swell and precipitation. Given the current uncertainty in the trajectory forecast, this degradation will be refined soon.

Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/13 at 10 a.m. local, at 15.6 South / 55.5 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/14 at 10 a.m. local, at 18.3 South / 54.6 East.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/15 at 10 a.m. local, at 20.1 South / 55.4 East.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/16 at 10 a.m. local, at 21.5 South / 57.0 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/17 at 10 a.m. local, at 23.2 South / 59.9 East

[cycloneye]

WTXS21 PGTW 120800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 57.8E TO 16.6S 54.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM NORTH
OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 120159Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 120554Z ASCAT-B PASS
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 25-30 KNOT WINDS
AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 2

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1003 hPa.

Position on January 12 at 10 p.m. local: 13.9 South / 56.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 785 km to sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1220 km to sector: EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

- Yellow cyclone pre-alert in progress, triggered by the prefecture of Reunion since 1:00 p.m. local time, this Friday January 12, 2004.

- The low pressure system has lost some of its presence since the beginning of the evening. It therefore remains temporarily at the tropical depression stage (02-20232024).

- The system is currently evolving northeast of the island of Tromelin, a little less than 800 km north-northeast of Reunion.

- An evolution into a moderate tropical storm (future storm BELAL) remains envisaged in the short term with a trajectory which will bring this system closer to the Great Mascarenes (Reunion - Mauritius) this weekend. A passage as close as possible to these islands is currently planned between late night from Sunday to Monday and Monday evening. At this deadline (approximately 3 days), the uncertainties still remain significant so that it is still difficult to decide on a closest passage distance.

- This system, once formed, will find itself in conditions favorable to its intensification. It is therefore likely a mature system, probably at the tropical cyclone stage (or even higher) which will transit near the sister islands.

- A gradual deterioration of the weather is therefore expected over the next weekend, in terms of wind, swell and precipitation. A more marked deterioration of sensitive weather is expected from Sunday evening. Given the current uncertainty in the trajectory forecast, this degradation will be refined soon.

Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/13 at 10 p.m. local, at 17.2 South / 53.9 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/14 at 10 p.m. local, at 19.8 South / 54.2 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/15 at 10 p.m. local, at 21.3 South / 56.5 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/16 at 10 p.m. local, at 21.8 South / 58.8 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/17 at 10 p.m. local time, at 22.3 South / 62.0 East

-------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 2

(BELAL)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 4 a.m. local time: 14.5 South / 56.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 710 km to sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1180 km to sector: EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- Convective activity has picked up again, not only close to the low pressure minimum, but also within peripheral bands, presenting more curvature. These signs of intensification allowed the system to be named BELAL, as a moderate tropical storm, in coordination with the Mauritius meteorological service.

- Moderate storm BELAL is currently evolving northeast of the island of Tromelin, a little over 700 km north of Reunion Island.

- A gradual intensification of the meteor is envisaged over the coming days with a trajectory which will bring it closer to the Grandes Mascareignes (Reunion - Mauritius) this weekend.

- A passage as close as possible to these islands is currently planned between late night from Sunday to Monday and Monday evening. At this time (approximately 3 days), the uncertainties still remain significant so that it is still difficult to decide with certainty on a closest passage distance.

- BELAL is currently experiencing favorable conditions for its intensification. It is therefore likely a mature system, probably at the tropical cyclone stage (or even higher) which will transit near the sister islands.

- A gradual deterioration of the weather is therefore expected over the next weekend, in terms of wind, swell and precipitation. A more marked deterioration of sensitive weather is expected from Sunday evening. Given the current uncertainty in the trajectory forecast, this degradation will be refined soon.

Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/14 at 4 a.m. local, at 17.8 South / 53.9 East.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/15 at 4 a.m. local time, at 20.1 South / 55.0 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/16 at 4 a.m. local, at 21.3 South / 57.1 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/17 at 4 a.m. local time, at 21.6 South / 60.0 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/18 at 4 a.m. local time, at 21.5 South / 62.2 East

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1745986472774373626

[Hurricane2022]

Why the Headline shows Belal as an South Pac storm??

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 2

(BELAL)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 991 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 10 a.m. local: 15.7 South / 55.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 575 km to sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1110 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 22 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical storm BELAL, named last night, continues to intensify this Saturday morning by circulating near the island of Tromelin, still at a distance of more than 500 km north of Reunion.

- Rapid intensification to the intense tropical cyclone stage is expected in the next 48 hours, with the system gradually approaching the Great Mascarenes. Extreme winds are therefore expected near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.

- The uncertainty on the exact trajectory is, however, still greater than 100 km. We cannot yet accurately announce a passage distance as close as possible to the islands.

- Reunion seems more directly threatened, with a probable passage of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island, exposing it to destructive or even devastating winds between the end of the night from Sunday to Monday and the day of Monday . Very intense precipitation is also expected as well as dangerous cyclonic swells.

- Mauritius should also experience very degraded conditions around Monday in terms of wind, rain and swell, even if the probability of direct influence of the heart of the cyclone on the island seems lower than for Reunion.

- Faced with this probable cyclonic threat, residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of the local authorities.

Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/14 at 10 a.m. local, at 18.9 South / 53.9 East.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/15 at 10 a.m. local, at 20.8 South / 55.5 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/16 at 10 a.m. local, at 21.8 South / 58.2 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/17 at 10 a.m. local, at 21.9 South / 60.7 East.

TROPICAL CYCLONE,

Center positioned on 01/18 at 10 a.m. local, at 21.9 South / 62.4 East

[cycloneye]

Why the Headline shows Belal as an South Pac storm??

Fixed it.

Looks very good.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1746141418295296462

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 2

(BELAL)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 986 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 4 p.m. local: 16.8 South / 54.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 475 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1050 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 24 km/h.

System information:

- BELAL begins a phase of rapid intensification and reached the stage of Severe Tropical Storm this Saturday afternoon. The center of the system is located between 400 and 500 km north-northwest of Reunion.

- Intensification to the stage of intense tropical cyclone is expected in the next 24 to 36 hours, with a system gradually approaching the Great Mascarenes from the northwest.

- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands, and in particular Reunion, from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.

- The uncertainty on the exact trajectory is still of the order of 100 to 120 km, but the probability of passing in the immediate vicinity of Reunion Island is significant.

- For Reunion Island, probable passage of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island between the night of Sunday to Monday and the day of Monday. Under the currently preferred scenario, the island is potentially exposed to a major cyclonic impact, with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage 50-100 km from the island, significant impacts linked to strong winds, heavy rains and cyclonic swells are expected.

- Mauritius should also experience very degraded conditions around Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, even if the probability of direct influence of the heart of the cyclone on the island seems lower than for The meeting.

- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.

[Hurricane2022]

Tropical Storm Belal continues to impress

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1746225340580503664

[cycloneye]

Great structure.

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 2

(BELAL)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 982 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 10 p.m. local: 17.5 South / 53.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 410 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1060 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.

System information:

- BELAL begins a phase of rapid intensification. This evening, the system is still at the stage of a Strong Tropical Storm about 400km northwest of Reunion.

- Intensification to the stage of intense tropical cyclone is expected in the next 24 to 36 hours, with a system gradually approaching the Great Mascarenes from the west-northwest.

- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands, and in particular Reunion, from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.

- The uncertainty on the exact trajectory is still of the order of 100 to 120 km, but the probability of passing in the immediate vicinity of Reunion Island is significant.

- For Reunion Island, probable passage of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island between the night of Sunday to Monday and the day of Monday. Under the currently preferred scenario, the island is potentially exposed to a major cyclonic impact, with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage 50-100 km from the island, significant impacts linked to strong winds, heavy rains and cyclonic swells are expected.

- Mauritius should also experience very degraded conditions around Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, even if the probability of direct influence of the heart of the cyclone on the island seems lower than for The meeting.

- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.