Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

Unless the shortwave is stronger and sucking air out of the gulf which is warmer… idk

We’ll know a lot more on Saturday for us down here.

[txtwister78]

The NAM is your model of choice folks with these shallow arctic fronts/airmasses.

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM is your model of choice folks with these shallow arctic fronts/airmasses.

It does seem to do well with STJ disturbances but also can struggle with northern stream shortwaves. I am paying attention to it showing light freezing rain for S and Central TX. It also highlights that we should pay attention to the fact that as the shortwave digs into TX it will be enhanced perhaps more than modelled bringing areas of heavier ice and snow to N and E TX.

[IcyTundra]

We're getting to the point where the globals don't mean much.

[gpsnowman]

The NAM is your model of choice folks with these shallow arctic fronts/airmasses.

It does seem to do well with STJ disturbances but also can struggle with northern stream shortwaves. I am paying attention to it showing light freezing rain for S and Central TX. It also highlights that we should pay attention to the fact that as the shortwave digs into TX it will be enhanced perhaps more than modelled bringing areas of heavier ice and snow to N and E TX.

Looks like it could be a Sunday evening to Monday morning event. Will be a long night for us winter lovers. I happen to be off Monday so I plan on staying up if it's worth it.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like it could be a Sunday evening to Monday morning event. Will be a long night for us winter lovers. I happen to be off Monday so I plan on staying up if it's worth it.

I sure find it hard to get good sleep leading up to a winter storm. I'm sure I won't sleep much say all Sunday night. Tomorrow and Sat we enter the sweet spot for meso scale models so about to be in over drive time. I get very active on my weather page posting every couple hours in times like this.

[txtwister78]

The NAM is your model of choice folks with these shallow arctic fronts/airmasses.

It does seem to do well with STJ disturbances but also can struggle with northern stream shortwaves. I am paying attention to it showing light freezing rain for S and Central TX. It also highlights that we should pay attention to the fact that as the shortwave digs into TX it will be enhanced perhaps more than modelled bringing areas of heavier ice and snow to N and E TX.

Yeah I was referring more to the temp discussion that others were making earlier regarding the "warmer" globals. NAM typically nails these arctic fronts with respect to timing and so I expect a faster progression of the arctic air into Texas which in my opinion makes the globals worthless when it comes to that as we get more short-range guidance in play. The timing aspect will make all the difference for folks further south in terms of any transition to frozen precip (most likely freezing rain).

In terms of the NAM and its synoptic elements, it tends to do some whacky things at times however to your point it does handle overrunning situations fairly well like the one I expect to develop Sunday across Central and SC TX. You're seeing that in some of its model runs now (isentropic lift). Typically, that creates more freezing drizzle/light freezing rain scenarios.

I think the one thing to consider further north for snow is the air is going to be extremely dry (negative dewpoints in some cases) and so to your point you're going to need something a little stronger to get more accumulation (snow to make it all the way to the ground). Models have backed off across Oklahoma tonight than previously modeled. We shall see

[Ralph's Weather]

Tonight's snow in OK is turning into a dud due to too much dry air. East OK could still see an inch or two.
The front is now entering NW portions of NTX. Ahead of it storms are firing over DFW. Those storms have led to the issuance of a tornado watch for E TX. After the storms we will all be in for a chilly and windy Friday.

[Texas Snow]

Line of storms exploding quickly. One minute checked radar and nothing and not much later lighting popping everywhere around me.

[gpsnowman]

Line of storms exploding quickly. One minute checked radar and nothing and not much later lighting popping everywhere around me.

Yup just heard some thunder. You aren't lying, that line blew up fast!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Line of storms exploding quickly. One minute checked radar and nothing and not much later lighting popping everywhere around me.

Crazy how quick it went from nothing to a solid line in a matter of minutes.

[Brent]

The NAM is your model of choice folks with these shallow arctic fronts/airmasses.

It does seem to do well with STJ disturbances but also can struggle with northern stream shortwaves. I am paying attention to it showing light freezing rain for S and Central TX. It also highlights that we should pay attention to the fact that as the shortwave digs into TX it will be enhanced perhaps more than modelled bringing areas of heavier ice and snow to N and E TX.

Yeah I was referring more to the temp discussion that others were making earlier regarding the "warmer" globals. NAM typically nails these arctic fronts with respect to timing and so I expect a faster progression of the arctic air into Texas which in my opinion makes the globals worthless when it comes to that as we get more short-range guidance in play. The timing aspect will make all the difference for folks further south in terms of any transition to frozen precip (most likely freezing rain).

In terms of the NAM and its synoptic elements, it tends to do some whacky things at times however to your point it does handle overrunning situations fairly well like the one I expect to develop Sunday across Central and SC TX. You're seeing that in some of its model runs now (isentropic lift). Typically, that creates more freezing drizzle/light freezing rain scenarios.

I think the one thing to consider further north for snow is the air is going to be extremely dry (negative dewpoints in some cases) and so to your point you're going to need something a little stronger to get more accumulation (snow to make it all the way to the ground). Models have backed off across Oklahoma tonight than previously modeled. We shall see

Yeah I guess in retrospect the fact we're gonna be 10 degrees on Sunday is probably not helping us up here. The biggest reason it sucks is because so far this has been a very disappointing winter here nothing has trended right in the final days so far. I know I know well probably get ours at some point but like I wish it would come on already hopefully we can at least improve on our dusting the other day and be closer to a real snow at least. I guess it would hurt less if people hadn't hyped this up earlier today

We did have a rather surprising thunderstorm earlier at least with some small hail so there's that...

[mmmmsnouts]

That line filled in maybe a mile east of my house. Can’t remember the last time a line went from 0 to 60 like that.

[chickypez]

Line of storms exploding quickly. One minute checked radar and nothing and not much later lighting popping everywhere around me.

Crazy how quick it went from nothing to a solid line in a matter of minutes.

No joke! It doesn't seem to be moving much either. And it just keeps hailing. I'll take a thunderstorm, but not too thrilled about the hail.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow these storms blew up in like,10 minutes. Wonder if the Dallas county storm will go severe

[gpsnowman]

Line of storms exploding quickly. One minute checked radar and nothing and not much later lighting popping everywhere around me.

Crazy how quick it went from nothing to a solid line in a matter of minutes.

No joke! It doesn't seem to be moving much either. And it just keeps hailing. I'll take a thunderstorm, but not too thrilled about the hail.

Just had a marble sized hail fest. No bueno. Always sounds like Armageddon during a hailstorm.

[Stratton23]

The euro is utter doo doo

[Brent]

The euro is utter doo doo

Yeah very concerning trends tbh the euro was how our downhill spiral started here after lunch and it hasn't ended

I just wanna go to bed and hope for a better trend tomorrow. This is an utter joke after all the hype today up here

[Ralph's Weather]

Areas north of a Graham to Paris line could see some flakes to maybe a dusting this morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

A quick run through latest data for early week and I don't see much change. Still a lot of uncertainty, but general idea is still much of state gets freezing drizzle with a area of mainly snow for the NE corner of the state and in between a zone of sleet with perhaps an area of moderate freezing rain south of that. The size of these zones and how heavy the heaviest areas will be is very much in question. The heavier set of models show .25 to .5" liquid over E TX.