Texas Winter 2023-2024

[orangeblood]

18z Euro is pretty juiced up (relatively speaking) from the DFW/Waco line NE into Southern Arkansas.

18z Euro has most of this south of I20 as freezing rain or sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/k00N6S0/18zQPF.png

Yep, that’s approaching ice storm warning criteria for some

[snownado]

Yall are rooting for ice? After numerous days of 110-118 this summer, basically too many to count. ill take dry cold all day long and be thrilled. Snow is just a plus during these cold spells. Keep that ice mess down there.

Yessir!!!

If I had to pick a poison, I'll take cold and dry easily.

Ice is never fun.

[Ntxw]

Still think the forecast of either freezing rain or snow is incoherent. You can’t skip past sleet, and besides it might be too cold for freezing rain anyway.

It's never too cold for freezing rain. Despite the surface temp, your prceip type is determined by the columns temp profile.

Very true. The only caveat it's very rare to see freezing rain in the lower 20s or lower especially when the lower few thousand feet is below freezing. If it's upper 20s fair game. For an event to produce the kind of freezing rain with such lower temps would require very strong WAA, usually when the cold dome is on the way out. There's always a chance the source algorithm is not the best.

[Itryatgolf]

18z Euro is pretty juiced up (relatively speaking) from the DFW/Waco line NE into Southern Arkansas.

18z Euro has most of this south of I20 as freezing rain or sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/k00N6S0/18zQPF.png

Hey Bubba. Would you post the 18z euro qpf for ark, w tenn, and North miss please? Thanks in advance

[Ntxw]

18z Euro is pretty juiced up (relatively speaking) from the DFW/Waco line NE into Southern Arkansas.

18z Euro has most of this south of I20 as freezing rain or sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/k00N6S0/18zQPF.png

Hey Bubba. Would you post the 18z euro qpf for ark, w tenn, and North miss please? Thanks in advance

Lots of snow 4-10" for the region.

[Itryatgolf]

Our nws put our area under WSW for late Sunday into Monday afternoon. 3-8 with locally higher amounts possible

[bubba hotep]

ARKLATEX Plus MS and others

[Ralph's Weather]

Still think the forecast of either freezing rain or snow is incoherent. You can’t skip past sleet, and besides it might be too cold for freezing rain anyway.

It's never too cold for freezing rain. Despite the surface temp, your prceip type is determined by the columns temp profile.

Very true. The only caveat it's very rare to see freezing rain in the lower 20s or lower especially when the lower few thousand feet is below freezing. If it's upper 20s fair game. For an event to produce the kind of freezing rain with such lower temps would require very strong WAA, usually when the cold dome is on the way out. There's always a chance the source algorithm is not the best.

It does seem off for there to be moderate to heavy freezing rain in this situation. I could see freezing drizzle changing over to sleet.

[Brent]

Our nws put our area under WSW for late Sunday into Monday afternoon. 3-8 with locally higher amounts possible

Nice. You're gonna get a good storm before me imagine that

I just don't get it here and I'm not going to get it

[bubba hotep]

Our nws put our area under WSW for late Sunday into Monday afternoon. 3-8 with locally higher amounts possible

Nice. You're gonna get a good storm before me imagine that

I just don't get it here and I'm not going to get it

It is wild how consistent the models were for snow in portions of OK and then "poof"

[Brent]

Our nws put our area under WSW for late Sunday into Monday afternoon. 3-8 with locally higher amounts possible

Nice. You're gonna get a good storm before me imagine that

I just don't get it here and I'm not going to get it

It is wild how consistent the models were for snow in portions of OK and then "poof"

I really thought this was ours I mean I had never seen such a good EPS signal and now I'm ready to cancel my subscription to it I mean it was dead wrong about this storm so whats the point of paying for it

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting how NWS Shreveport and Jackson have already put out WS watches without coordination from surrounding offices. Usually they are issued sequentially downstream and not scattered small areas. I am sure tomorrow NWS offices will be busy issuing watches all over the Southern Plains and Southeast.

[Cpv17]

Nice. You're gonna get a good storm before me imagine that

I just don't get it here and I'm not going to get it

It is wild how consistent the models were for snow in portions of OK and then "poof"

I really thought this was ours I mean I had never seen such a good EPS signal and now I'm ready to cancel my subscription to it I mean it was dead wrong about this storm so whats the point of paying for it

It’s cuz most of the time everything blows up east of us.

[Texas Snow]

I know there was mention of weather for Cowboys game (roads) and KC (cold) but has anyone checked out the forecast for Buffalo Sunday?
Must watch TV…

[Gotwood]

I know there was mention of weather for Cowboys game (roads) and KC (cold) but has anyone checked out the forecast for Buffalo Sunday?
Must watch TV…

I honestly think it’s stupid to play playoff games in poor weather conditions, regular season sure why not but these guys have worked all year to have a game won or lost in a blizzard? Makes no sense.

[mmmmsnouts]

Still think the forecast of either freezing rain or snow is incoherent. You can’t skip past sleet, and besides it might be too cold for freezing rain anyway.

It's never too cold for freezing rain. Despite the surface temp, your prceip type is determined by the columns temp profile.

Right, but I would think at some point it’s too far below freezing at the surface to have such a big warm nose where you get freezing rain.

[utpmg]

So I prepped for upcoming freezing rain by having all my trees shed their limbs during the last ice storm. Don't see a problem next week.

[Gotwood]

Negative temps already surging into Kansas. Shelby Montana had a forecast low of -36 and it’s already -36 so might be seeing some pretty significant temps busts. Wouldn’t be surprised if this front moved through north Texas before schedule.

[TropicalTundra]

Negative temps already surging into Kansas. Shelby Montana had a forecast low of -36 and it’s already -36 so might be seeing some pretty significant temps busts. Wouldn’t be surprised if this front moved through north Texas before schedule.

I'm following more with HRRR/RGEM if we're already busting lows so far. Those 2 are easily carrying the most cold south. NAM is the warmer of the bunch.

[Gotwood]

Negative temps already surging into Kansas. Shelby Montana had a forecast low of -36 and it’s already -36 so might be seeing some pretty significant temps busts. Wouldn’t be surprised if this front moved through north Texas before schedule.

I'm following more with HRRR/RGEM if we're already busting lows so far. Those 2 are easily carrying the most cold south. NAM is the warmer of the bunch.

I don’t feel like the HRRR is quick enough time will tell obviously.