Woofde wrote:aspen wrote:SFLcane wrote:fyi.. the problem is the 300 ace honestly was not a really a joke the way i see it the potential we are seeing on these climate models is very worrisome for this season. Hope things change
Is 300 ACE even physically possible for the Atlantic? It would probably require a 2005/17 mash-up in terms of overall storm frequency and MDR activity, but I don’t think a season that favorable is possible. Plus, upwelling would become quite an issue after a while.
I think it's **possible** just extremely unlikely. Just have to imagine a season with 2023 levels of warmth, with a 2005 style front half and a 2020 style back half.
I think you'd need a 2005-style early season (June-August), 2017-style MDR season (September) and 2020-style late season (October-November) for that. 2005's MDR season was notably lackluster when compared to similar seasons (only a single Cat 1 Philippe within MDR east of 60W), and its September ACE was mostly helped by the Gulf (Rita) and the subtropics (C3 Maria, C1 Nate, C1 Ophelia).
Such a hypothetical season might actually not be completely detached from reality. The early season (2005-like) is mostly focused on Caribbean and Gulf, allowing the MDR to continue warming up. September (2017-like) instead has the bulk of its activity in the MDR proper, which has been largely untouched, while also allowing the Caribbean time to rebound as storms recurve. (The same is largely true for 2005 and 2020.) Finally, in late season (2020-like), the Caribbean explodes again after getting a break in September. This would address a lot of the upwelling problems that aspen mentioned.
Of course, this is still very, very unlikely to happen.