Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

I know the focus is on tommorow, but it appears we may have another system to watch down the road in about 9-10 days per the OP GFS and CMC, and the ensembles, tommorow may not be our only opportunity for wintry precipitation in this pattern before it relaxes

[Ghost0321]

I know the focus is on tommorow, but it appears we may have another system to watch down the road in about 9-10 days per the OP GFS and CMC, and the ensembles, tommorow may not be our only opportunity for wintry precipitation in this pattern before it relaxes

GFS shows a brutal ice storm for much of the state and DFW early next week

[Lagreeneyes03]

I know the focus is on tommorow, but it appears we may have another system to watch down the road in about 9-10 days per the OP GFS and CMC, and the ensembles, tommorow may not be our only opportunity for wintry precipitation in this pattern before it relaxes

GFS shows a brutal ice storm for much of the state and DFW early next week

Oooh let's hope it sticks. I'm a remote employee who has to go to the office once a month, and that's the week of our in office days

[Ralph's Weather]

Not much change on the models so far. NAM has most substantial warm nose. Most models have my area with a warm nose barely above freezing. I hope this plays out so that precip is primarily sleet and snow with minimal freezing rain.
Globals generally wetter than mesos. I do think there will be pockets of >0.25" QPF maxing near 0.5" QPF in E TX.
Cold this morning with he freeze line from N SA to CS to Lufkin. 20F line Waco to Tyler to Texarkana. 10F line is NW of DFW.

[AubreyStorm]

Good morning! When will snow here in Frisco? Or Denton Texas

Right now like 5

[Tammie]

9° in Sherman. I see little blue returns on the radar just NE of us in Oklahoma. No idea if any of it is hitting the ground.

EDIT: POOF! No more little blue return on the radar

[Ralph's Weather]

Spotty drizzle possible this morning but low levels are dry so likely will take until after lunch for it to moisten up.

[Iceresistance]

I managed to get down to 0°F this morning, snow returns to the west right now.

[TexasF6]

Good morning everyone! I am seeing light precipitation on the Texas Mesonet radar? Any ground truth to it? Also, any word on the impulse for Monday night over Texas? Good to see everyone on this great forum!!! It's a balmy 23 degrees at the LonghornWxCenter in Jollyville, TX!!!

[GeauxTigers]

Good morning all! It’s 10 here in Tioga, Tx. My weather channel app gives my area %2 tonight & %15 chance of precip tomorrow. Unfortunately, not the chances i was hoping for here in north TX.

[Portastorm]

Good morning everyone! I am seeing light precipitation on the Texas Mesonet radar? Any ground truth to it? Also, any word on the impulse for Monday night over Texas? Good to see everyone on this great forum!!! It's a balmy 23 degrees at the LonghornWxCenter in Jollyville, TX!!!

Hey F6! I was just going to report on this. Via our Twitter account, we’re receiving multiple reports of freezing mist/drizzle albeit very light throughout the western and northern portions of Travis County. Trying to predict drizzle via modeling can be challenging and perhaps Mother Nature is throwing us our first curveball. This wasn’t expected this early.

[TexasF6]

Good morning everyone! I am seeing light precipitation on the Texas Mesonet radar? Any ground truth to it? Also, any word on the impulse for Monday night over Texas? Good to see everyone on this great forum!!! It's a balmy 23 degrees at the LonghornWxCenter in Jollyville, TX!!!

Hey F6! I was just going to report on this. Via our Twitter account, we’re receiving multiple reports of freezing mist/drizzle albeit very light throughout the western and northern portions of Travis County. Trying to predict drizzle via modeling can be challenging and perhaps Mother Nature is throwing us our first curveball. This wasn’t expected this early.

Thank you Porta!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Very light returns in East Texas, not sure that anything is the reaching ground yet. All part of the moistening process. As Porta said though, drizzle is very hard to see on models or even radar. Today and tomorrow are great use cases for reporting precip types on mPing.

[CaptinCrunch]

Got down to 10 degrees here in Little Elm, expected high is now 19 so airmass is colder than than forecasted models which is what most everyone was thinking. Unless something surprising happens precipitation will be lacking in most areas across NTX.

Waiting on next system to cash in hopefully

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The biggest change made with this morning`s forecast update was to
move up the timing of freezing drizzle across Central Texas. The
stratus deck started to emerge over the Hill Country around 2AM
and as of 530AM, it already covers most of North and Central
Texas. We are also seeing light radar returns in close proximity
to the GRK radar, indicating that drizzle is likely already
falling. With that being said, the chance of any accumulation this
morning is only around 10%. The other change was to trim south
the freezing rain to sleet transition line late tonight and early
tomorrow morning. We`re gaining confidence that a full change-over
to sleet (or snow) is likely across North Texas tomorrow morning,
while a freezing rain/sleet mix continues across much of Central
Texas.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CST Sun Jan

WINTER ACCUMULATION FORECAST...
* Areas northeast of the Metroplex...(Paris-Bonham-Cooper) These
areas are most likely to see snow. Most can expect to receive
around 1/4-1/2" of snow with some locations receiving up to 1"
of snow.

* Farther south including the Metroplex...A mix of freezing rain
and sleet is expected. Sleet accumulations up to 1/10 of an inch
are likely with freezing rain totaling up to a few hundredths of
an inch. High-end sleet accumulation may approach 1/4". Given
the very cold temperatures, icing of bridges and overpasses is
expected and will make travel deceptively dangerous since most
surface roads will remain dry.

* For our southeast counties...(Athens-Corsicana-Fairfield toward
the Brazos Valley) These areas will have the greatest potential
for more significant icing. We currently forecast 0.10 to 0.15"
of ice accumulation in this region. More widespread impacts to
untreated surface roads and especially bridges and overpasses
are expected. There is a 10% chance that some areas receive
upwards of 1/4" of ice, which would cause significant impacts
and require a Winter Storm Warning to be issued. Our confidence
of ice totals this high is too low to warrant issuing a warning
at this time.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST...
* Below freezing temperatures are forecast for the entire forecast
area through Wednesday. Some locations across the far southeast
could have risen above freezing today, but we have lowered the
high temperature forecast such that all locations should stay
below freezing this afternoon.

* Tonight`s lows should fall into the low 10s for North Texas and
the teens to 20s for Central Texas. Only a few locations along
the Red River are expected to fall into the single digits. Due
to this, we have not extended the Hard Freeze Warning into
Sunday night/Monday morning.

* Monday`s highs will be a few degrees warmer than today as the
airmass starts to modify. Highs will still only climb into the
20s as abundant cloud cover limits heating.

* A reinforcing shot of cold air is slated to arrive Monday night
into Tuesday. This will result in another frigidly cold night,
with Tuesday morning lows falling into the single digits for
most of North Texas. Lows in the teens are forecast for all of
Central Texas. The cold air will come with gusty winds and below
zero wind chill values across the entire forecast area.

[PineyWoods]

19° here in Tyler. Very light drizzle, frozen on windshield. Maybe the lower layers are moistening up some? They really didn't forecast for us to get any type precipitated until tonight into tomorrow am. Stay warm and safe out there.

[Fifty Rock]

Got down to 8* here so far.

[HockeyTx82]

Went for a 3.1 mile run this morning. 11F 0F WC.

It was glorious. Modern fabrics are amazing!

Got a few crazy looks from people driving by, but overall worth it.

[Fifty Rock]

Very lite precipitation falling here. Tiny flakes.