2024 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1744796148571758732

[cycloneye]

Breaking News= Neutral up to 73% for April thru June

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 [Fig. 6]. Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024. The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024. There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[SFLcane]

Breaking News= Neutral up to 73% for April thru June

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 [Fig. 6]. Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024. The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024. There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/Y3JHhLm.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Would not shock me to see Phil k issue his highest ever first forecast come April.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Enso Blog:

Chances of La Niña conditions are topping 50-60% by the Northern Hemisphere late summer/fall, as many of our computer climate models are predicting that La Niña will develop. La Niña has its own set of global impacts, of course, including a tendency to increase Atlantic hurricane activity. We’ll be keeping an eagle eye on conditions in the tropical Pacific as this El Niño wanes over the next several months.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... date-birds

[zzzh]

Strong Pacific MJO incoming

[Kingarabian]

Strong Pacific MJO incoming

Most of the models are fast with it, so it probably won't superimpose on the base state. But some of the long range Euro guidance amplify it and slow it down considerably over the WPAC. Which is interesting.

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI is almost positive. A sign that we are moving towards neutral ENSO.

[cycloneye]

Strong Pacific MJO incoming

Most of the models are fast with it, so it probably won't superimpose on the base state. But some of the long range Euro guidance amplify it and slow it down considerably over the WPAC. Which is interesting.

What it means if it slows in WPAC?

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI is almost positive. A sign that we are moving towards neutral ENSO.

Here it is.

[Dean_175]

Nino3.4 remains at +1.9C
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[dexterlabio]

Those monthly SOI values are not typical for a strong/borderline super El Niño, right?

[Kingarabian]

Strong Pacific MJO incoming

Most of the models are fast with it, so it probably won't superimpose on the base state. But some of the long range Euro guidance amplify it and slow it down considerably over the WPAC. Which is interesting.

What it means if it slows in WPAC?

Slower MJO in the WPAC focuses more rising motion over that area. Would increase the chances of a significant and longer WWB event.

A faster MJO progression would minimize WWB chances.

[Kingarabian]

Those monthly SOI values are not typical for a strong/borderline super El Niño, right?

The event has peaked and because there are signs that a transition to neutral could be underway, the SOI is behaving accordingly.

Usually some lag between the ocean and atmosphere.

The SOI reflection of a strong El Nino was somewhere in the Oct-Dec period. Although it's debatable if the SOI actually got to strong El Nino levels as we seen in past events.

[cycloneye]

Breaking News: 30 day SOI index goes up to positive.

The yellow line is the 90 day one.



https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[SFLcane]

Breaking News: SOI index goes up to positive.

The yellow line is the 90 day one.

https://i.imgur.com/L5lWIyi.jpg

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Yup, Should start collapsing in spring.

[Kingarabian]

Upcoming WPAC WWB looks to be centered closer to 120W-130W. That would reduce the possibility of a strong downwelling Kelvin wave.

But would also keep the subsurface cooler anomalies moving east anemic.

[cycloneye]

After posted last tuesday, the news of the SOI reaching positive, 4 days later, is still rising.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[zzzh]

Dateline ewb obliterated the warm pool. Though the incoming wwb could bring some warm water back.

[cycloneye]

The January update of the plume of all dynamic and statistical models is up.The Cola one is much colder than CFSv2.

[cycloneye]

The data of CPC in the weekly update has all areas down with the main one 3.4 down from +1.9C to +1.7C.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf