Texas Winter 2023-2024

[HockeyTx82]

Why didn't DFW issue a hard freeze warning for tonight?

Call them and ask. They usually pick up the phone. I'm being serious.

[mmmmsnouts]

Why didn't DFW issue a hard freeze warning for tonight?

Isn’t it like the Freeze Warning where they only issue one for the first expected freeze of the season? There was already a Hard Freeze Warning last night.

[Nederlander]

Why didn't DFW issue a hard freeze warning for tonight?

Isn’t it like the Freeze Warning where they only issue one for the first expected freeze of the season? There was already a Hard Freeze Warning last night.

Houston had a hard freeze warning last night and again tonight.

[Stratton23]

Im loving these hard freezes! Perfect running weather! If i could control the weather id keep these sub freezing highs all winter around here! Sure beats the miserable warmth any day of the week!

[Tammie]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024

A northerly wind will return to all areas during the day Thursday as the surface low moves into southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon Thursday.

Bitterly cold air over western Canada will again move southward into the southern Plains. The arrival of the cold air will be northern Oklahoma early Thursday evening with the cold air overspreading the rest of Oklahoma and northern Texas during the late evening and overnight hours. Strong cold advection should result in some 35 to 40 mph winds with the initial surge of cold air, and a northerly wind will remain gusty well into the morning hours Friday. There is a medium chance (40-60%) of a Wind Chill advisory for the northern half of Oklahoma, as wind chill values will fall below -5 F.

The associated surface high with this cold air intrusion will build north and east of the area during the early part of the weekend. This will certainly keep temperatures on the cold side.

By late Sunday, precipitation chances will increase as a trough approaches the southern Plains from the west and southwest. Circulation of dry air will continue into Oklahoma and north Texas at this time. Therefore, there is a chance (30-40%) of freezing rain being the main precipitation type overnight Sunday into early Monday morning (some wet bulb influences) . At this time, it
appears areas along and southeast of I-44 have the best chance of experiencing precip chances are highest, there is a chance that temperatures could remain cooler and remain in the mid to upper 30s.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Im loving these hard freezes! Perfect running weather! If i could control the weather id keep these sub freezing highs all winter around here! Sure beats the miserable warmth any day of the week!

Amen

[Ralph's Weather]

Areas outside of town are in the 5 to 9 range and in town 11 to 15. Shaded spots still very icy.

[Iceresistance]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024

A northerly wind will return to all areas during the day Thursday as the surface low moves into southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon Thursday.

Bitterly cold air over western Canada will again move southward into the southern Plains. The arrival of the cold air will be northern Oklahoma early Thursday evening with the cold air overspreading the rest of Oklahoma and northern Texas during the late evening and overnight hours. Strong cold advection should result in some 35 to 40 mph winds with the initial surge of cold air, and a northerly wind will remain gusty well into the morning hours Friday. There is a medium chance (40-60%) of a Wind Chill advisory for the northern half of Oklahoma, as wind chill values will fall below -5 F.

The associated surface high with this cold air intrusion will build north and east of the area during the early part of the weekend. This will certainly keep temperatures on the cold side.

By late Sunday, precipitation chances will increase as a trough approaches the southern Plains from the west and southwest. Circulation of dry air will continue into Oklahoma and north Texas at this time. Therefore, there is a chance (30-40%) of freezing rain being the main precipitation type overnight Sunday into early Monday morning (some wet bulb influences) . At this time, it
appears areas along and southeast of I-44 have the best chance of experiencing precip chances are highest, there is a chance that temperatures could remain cooler and remain in the mid to upper 30s.

I really hope there is no ice storm.

[cstrunk]

10F IMBY in Longview this morning.

[Portastorm]

Record low for today at the Austin airport. Bottomed out at 11°. Old record 15° set in 2018.

[wxman57]

Im loving these hard freezes! Perfect running weather! If i could control the weather id keep these sub freezing highs all winter around here! Sure beats the miserable warmth any day of the week!

Amen

I agree! Perfect temps for running across the house and jumping under my electric blanket and lying on my big heating pad.

[wxman57]

Decided to look at the last model forecast before the front hit Sunday afternoon/evening. Black-bordered red triangles with red line are observed temps over central Houston (downtown). Every model performed badly, but HRRR and NAM were coldest, bringing the sub-freezing temps in MUCH earlier . GFS and Euro operationals were the worst for the first 48 hrs. NBM was generally about 5-7F too warm until yesterday afternoon.

Canadian hit Tuesday's low almost exactly from 48 hrs out. However, it was the worst for this morning's low. It has been forecasting 9F for this morning in every run after 12Z Sunday, even yesterday's run. Euro did best 72 hours out. NBM was still 2F too warm for this morning. GFS was terrible for the whole event.

This morning's low at my house was only 24. It was 20 yesterday morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

Decided to look at the last model forecast before the front hit Sunday afternoon/evening. Black-bordered red triangles with red line are observed temps over central Houston (downtown). Every model performed badly, but HRRR and NAM were coldest, bringing the sub-freezing temps in MUCH earlier . GFS and Euro operationals were the worst for the first 48 hrs. NBM was generally about 5-7F too warm until yesterday afternoon.

Canadian hit Tuesday's low almost exactly from 48 hrs out. However, it was the worst for this morning's low. It has been forecasting 9F for this morning in every run after 12Z Sunday, even yesterday's run. Euro did best 72 hours out. NBM was still 2F too warm for this morning. GFS was terrible for the whole event.

This morning's low at my house was only 24. It was 20 yesterday morning.

http://wxman57.com/images/Verify.png

Thank you,

That is a perfect example of how NO model is perfect and you cannot discount certain models over the heavily favored ones because they appear incorrect. Data is data, and data IS NEVER 100% accurate regardless of it's modeling.

Weather forecasting is a crap shoot, no matter what, you just roll with what you got and hope for the best.

[Gotwood]

Decided to look at the last model forecast before the front hit Sunday afternoon/evening. Black-bordered red triangles with red line are observed temps over central Houston (downtown). Every model performed badly, but HRRR and NAM were coldest, bringing the sub-freezing temps in MUCH earlier . GFS and Euro operationals were the worst for the first 48 hrs. NBM was generally about 5-7F too warm until yesterday afternoon.

Canadian hit Tuesday's low almost exactly from 48 hrs out. However, it was the worst for this morning's low. It has been forecasting 9F for this morning in every run after 12Z Sunday, even yesterday's run. Euro did best 72 hours out. NBM was still 2F too warm for this morning. GFS was terrible for the whole event.

This morning's low at my house was only 24. It was 20 yesterday morning.

http://wxman57.com/images/Verify.png

Thank you,

That is a perfect example of how NO model is perfect and you cannot discount certain models over the heavily favored ones because they appear incorrect. Data is data, and data IS NEVER 100% accurate regardless of it's modeling.

Weather forecasting is a crap shoot, no matter what, you just roll with what you got and hope for the best.

Think it also highlights what this site has talked about in regards to Arctic air and how it travels faster and doesn’t stop moving. You would think the models by now would be tweaked to account for it. But oh well generally they did pretty well especially in terms of precipitation. Hard to account for tiny flakes that even the radar had trouble picking up.

[Gotwood]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024

A northerly wind will return to all areas during the day Thursday as the surface low moves into southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon Thursday.

Bitterly cold air over western Canada will again move southward into the southern Plains. The arrival of the cold air will be northern Oklahoma early Thursday evening with the cold air overspreading the rest of Oklahoma and northern Texas during the late evening and overnight hours. Strong cold advection should result in some 35 to 40 mph winds with the initial surge of cold air, and a northerly wind will remain gusty well into the morning hours Friday. There is a medium chance (40-60%) of a Wind Chill advisory for the northern half of Oklahoma, as wind chill values will fall below -5 F.

The associated surface high with this cold air intrusion will build north and east of the area during the early part of the weekend. This will certainly keep temperatures on the cold side.

By late Sunday, precipitation chances will increase as a trough approaches the southern Plains from the west and southwest. Circulation of dry air will continue into Oklahoma and north Texas at this time. Therefore, there is a chance (30-40%) of freezing rain being the main precipitation type overnight Sunday into early Monday morning (some wet bulb influences) . At this time, it
appears areas along and southeast of I-44 have the best chance of experiencing precip chances are highest, there is a chance that temperatures could remain cooler and remain in the mid to upper 30s.

I really hope there is no ice storm.

Even if there is some ice it seems like it will melt very quickly so I doubt there will be many issues.

[rwfromkansas]

I expected it to be the coldest night as fast as temps were falling, but it was warmer than yesterday morning IMBY. Still cold!

[Harp.1]

Ok, my Texas neighbors, what’s next??

[DallasAg]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024

A northerly wind will return to all areas during the day Thursday as the surface low moves into southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon Thursday.

Bitterly cold air over western Canada will again move southward into the southern Plains. The arrival of the cold air will be northern Oklahoma early Thursday evening with the cold air overspreading the rest of Oklahoma and northern Texas during the late evening and overnight hours. Strong cold advection should result in some 35 to 40 mph winds with the initial surge of cold air, and a northerly wind will remain gusty well into the morning hours Friday. There is a medium chance (40-60%) of a Wind Chill advisory for the northern half of Oklahoma, as wind chill values will fall below -5 F.

The associated surface high with this cold air intrusion will build north and east of the area during the early part of the weekend. This will certainly keep temperatures on the cold side.

By late Sunday, precipitation chances will increase as a trough approaches the southern Plains from the west and southwest. Circulation of dry air will continue into Oklahoma and north Texas at this time. Therefore, there is a chance (30-40%) of freezing rain being the main precipitation type overnight Sunday into early Monday morning (some wet bulb influences) . At this time, it
appears areas along and southeast of I-44 have the best chance of experiencing precip chances are highest, there is a chance that temperatures could remain cooler and remain in the mid to upper 30s.

I really hope there is no ice storm.

Even if there is some ice it seems like it will melt very quickly so I doubt there will be many issues.

This has the feel of one of those cases where surface temps will be borderline at best, and the temps at the cloud level will be way warmer and will just drag >32F air down with it. The raindrops themselves wouldn't be supercooled so it would be hard to accumulate much ice even with a 31-32 degree surface temp. So while technically you'd have "freezing rain" it's not going to be a crippling ice storm. Still lots of days out, but these systems that come in as cold air is retreating historically have that type of setup.

[Cpv17]

Ok, my Texas neighbors, what’s next??

More cold Friday through Sunday and then a warm up and a flood next week.

[Harp.1]

Ok, my Texas neighbors, what’s next??

More cold Friday through Sunday and then a warm up and a flood next week.

I guess I more meant February.