Texas Winter 2023-2024

[txtwister78]

Ensembles still looking strong for significant rainfall for TX next week

What about cold? I keep seeing mentions of a possible ice storm for NTX.

So this past week we had the cold and moisture was in question, and now next week we have the moisture and cold in question?

Actually next week it warms up quite a bit and then we should enter a significant wet period. Don’t look for any significant cold to come back till very late this month or early February.

I would bet more on early February in my opinion. MJO has to swing into better phases to reload. NO PV to help mute that. That will take some time to do (couple weeks). Definitely ready for a break through along with some rainfall across SC TX.

[Fifty Rock]

Can someone post the expected rainfall totals across Texas next week?

[bubba hotep]

I really hope there is no ice storm.

Even if there is some ice it seems like it will melt very quickly so I doubt there will be many issues.

This has the feel of one of those cases where surface temps will be borderline at best, and the temps at the cloud level will be way warmer and will just drag >32F air down with it. The raindrops themselves wouldn't be supercooled so it would be hard to accumulate much ice even with a 31-32 degree surface temp. So while technically you'd have "freezing rain" it's not going to be a crippling ice storm. Still lots of days out, but these systems that come in as cold air is retreating historically have that type of setup.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some areas start out as freezing rain, but I agree that temps will probably moderate enough to keep it from being more than a short-term novelty before it melts off.





Pivotal doesn't have ICON freezing rain totals, but it looks like similar areas start out as the other models

[bubba hotep]

Can someone post the expected rainfall totals across Texas next week?

WPC Forecast

[Stratton23]

Ill believe the rain fall when i see it, models have burnt me way too many times

[Cpv17]

Can someone post the expected rainfall totals across Texas next week?

WPC Forecast

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/wpc/latest/wpc_qpf_168h_p.us_sc.png

That will go up.

[rwfromkansas]

Unless it trends colder, even if it's freezing rain, it won't even cause tiny issues at 32 degrees.

[Iceresistance]

This is not one of the headfake SSWs, this is the real deal, and a big one as well.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S06rw.png

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance did this SSWE just occur? Havent heard of any talk about one on social media

[Ntxw]

Iceresistance did this SSWE just occur? Havent heard of any talk about one on social media

A wind reversal did occur yesterday/today, which means it was a major SSW technically. Propagation downward would typically be expected, in this case early to mid February. We'll have to watch AO response in a few weeks.



Amy H Butler is the go to for all things SSW.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-acting

This is one of those things where you have to view the strat PV from a much more complicated perspective. The strat-troposphere weakened part of the vortex has been disrupting the upper portion, this is part of the reason it's been cold. As the upper portion is disrupted it can't be the force to recover the lower portion, so there will be continued weakened state of the PV.

[Itryatgolf]

Iceresistance did this SSWE just occur? Havent heard of any talk about one on social media

A wind reversal did occur yesterday/today, which means it was a major SSW technically. Propagation downward would typically be expected, in this case early to mid February. We'll have to watch AO response in a few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/wqKowXl.png

Amy H Butler is the go to for all things SSW.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-acting

This is one of those things where you have to view the strat PV from a much more complicated perspective. The strat-troposphere weakened part of the vortex has been disrupting the upper portion, this is part of the reason it's been cold. As the upper portion is disrupted it can't be the force to recover the lower portion, so there will be continued weakened state of the PV.

SSW events are tricky. Fun when we get real cold and stormier from them. Not all are the same. I'm thinking of the first week in February before we get colder again imo. It kinda sucks to get the mjo in the warm phases for a while

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance did this SSWE just occur? Havent heard of any talk about one on social media

A wind reversal did occur yesterday/today, which means it was a major SSW technically. Propagation downward would typically be expected, in this case early to mid February. We'll have to watch AO response in a few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/wqKowXl.png

Amy H Butler is the go to for all things SSW.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-acting

This is one of those things where you have to view the strat PV from a much more complicated perspective. The strat-troposphere weakened part of the vortex has been disrupting the upper portion, this is part of the reason it's been cold. As the upper portion is disrupted it can't be the force to recover the lower portion, so there will be continued weakened state of the PV.

SSW events are tricky. Fun when we get real cold and stormier from them. Not all are the same. I'm thinking of the first week in February before we get colder again imo. It kinda sucks to get the mjo in the warm phases for a while

MJO will get out of the warm phases, likely in February


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S065f.png

[Texas Snow]

This has the feel of one of those cases where surface temps will be borderline at best, and the temps at the cloud level will be way warmer and will just drag >32F air down with it. The raindrops themselves wouldn't be supercooled so it would be hard to accumulate much ice even with a 31-32 degree surface temp. So while technically you'd have "freezing rain" it's not going to be a crippling ice storm. Still lots of days out, but these systems that come in as cold air is retreating historically have that type of setup.

Told my wife this exact same thing on one of our 2 walks out in the amazing cold yesterday. Not concerned about this in North Texas at all.

[Brent]

Finally above freezing here after 5 days and it feels amazing. Sunday apparently ended up being the 12th coldest day on record here

I'm not really worried about Monday much... At worst probably a few hours with an icy bridge or something. We're gonna warmup for sure unlike behind this last storm so yeah it's not gonna be anything crazy

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1747708835383439802

[bubba hotep]

 https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1747704676131495971

[Portastorm]

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1747708835383439802

I’m very excited about the prospects of desperately needed rainfall down here … bring it! Travis and Williamson counties are in severe/extreme drought conditions.

[weatherdude1108]

According to my weather station, we bottomed out at 15.6 degrees on Monday. Had some freezing drizzle, sleet, and flurries on Monday, most of which evaporated (sublimated) by Monday night.

Stayed below freezing from 12:15am Sunday to 10:55am today (Wednesday). Roughly 82 hours and 40 minutes at 32 degrees or below. Not 144 hours (record for Mabry). But long enough!!lol

Tired of watching dripping/covered pipes and making sure covered plants stay covered. I'll keep covers on plants until Saturday morning and drip faucets without as much cover as this last event (low 20s Saturday morning instead of mid-teens).

We rescheduled our Kalahari visit for this Sunday to Monday (good choice). Looks like cold rain.
Anyway, looking forward to a good night's rest, and possibilities for significant rain next week!

[Yukon Cornelius]

96 hours below freezing. The lowest temp was 4. Ready for the next one!

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW
Long Range Discussion

The break in colder temperatures will be short-lived as another
strong push of arctic air is expected across North and Central
Texas Thursday night. Although not as cold as the last arctic
blast, hazardous cold is still expected and it will be important
to remember the 4 P`s when preparing for cold temperatures:
people, pets, plants, and pipes.

Friday morning will start in the teens to low 20s across North
Texas and the mid to upper 20s across Central Texas. Strong
northerly winds at 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph at times will allow
for wind chills in the single digits Friday morning, so bundle
up! With plentiful sunshine, most locations south of I-20 will
climb above freezing Friday afternoon, however there is a 40-50%
chance that locations along the Red River will struggle to get
above freezing through the entirety of Friday. Friday night into
Saturday morning will be the coldest period of the extended
forecast with widespread overnight lows in the teens. There is a
low (10%) chance that locations along the immediate Red River
Valley drop into the single digits Friday night. Saturday will
feature more cold conditions with afternoon highs in the 30s
across the region. By late Saturday, arctic high pressure will
move east of the region allowing for a prolonged period of strong
warm/moist advection to begin into early next week.

Broad-scale troughing will develop across the western CONUS early
next week placing North and Central Texas under persistent
southwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwave disturbances
ejecting out ahead of the main trough axis and increasing
isentropic ascent atop a cool near-surface airmass will lead to
increased rain chances the latter half of Sunday through at least
the middle of next week. Anomalously high moisture forecast by
long-range models suggests the potential for heavy rainfall,
especially across our Central Texas counties where modest amounts
of MUCAPE may be present. The first round of widespread rainfall
looks to occur Sunday night into Monday with periodic chances for
rain through much of next week. Although most of the region is
expected to stay above freezing through this rain event, there is
a 10-20% chance that locations along the Red River could see
freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning.

Rainfall totals through next Wednesday will average 1-2.5 inches
across most of North and Central Texas, with lesser amounts west
of Highway 281. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, our
Central Texas counties will likely contain the greatest heavy
rainfall potential. There is a 30-40% chance that the Brazos
Valley counties see 3+ inches through midweek next week.

Langfeld