Texas Winter 2023-2024

[bubba hotep]

Can someone explain the synoptic setup that is bringing the rain to central and SE Texas the last few days? Is it just the Pacific jet getting kicked up? How large of a role does Gulf moisture play in a setup like this?

A slow-moving trough of low pressure over Mexico and the SW US. It keeps kicking shortwaves out across TX which is producing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Plentiful Gulf and Pacific moisture combined with the slow movement of the storm system are leading to the heavy rainfall that we've been seeing.

It's a beauty

[txtwister78]

Another round of beautiful liquid gold this morning across much of south Texas! SA picked up another 1-2 inches, and we could have another round tonight! This slow-moving storm system has been just what the doctor ordered

Absolutely. So good that San Antonio has now officially recorded the 2nd wettest January on record with over 6 inches of rain. Don't know if we can beat the record of 8.52 set back in 1968, but with another round expected later today we could get close.

[South Texas Storms]

Another round of beautiful liquid gold this morning across much of south Texas! SA picked up another 1-2 inches, and we could have another round tonight! This slow-moving storm system has been just what the doctor ordered

Absolutely. So good that San Antonio has now officially recorded the 2nd wettest January on record with over 6 inches of rain. Don't know if we can beat the record of 8.52 set back in 1968, but with another round expected later today we could get close.

Definitely! So nice to be climbing the monthly rainfall leaderboard instead of sitting near the bottom like we have been for so long now. Hope this is a sign of things to come regarding TX rainfall in 2024!

[bubba hotep]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1750195350185648367

[Edwards Limestone]

HRRR bringing more today/tonight

[South Texas Storms]

HRRR bringing more today/tonight

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024012416/hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png

Yeah tonight's round continues to look more interesting. HRRR is consistent in bringing through a strong line of storms across much of south central and southeast TX. The strongest storms will likely contain some hail.

[orangeblood]

Probably more tropic forum related but some relevance to our in-season ENSO discussions….what a stat from Ryan Maue!!!

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1750008278279422145




With this and the greatest Arctic Sea Ice extent in over 2 decades currently, it’s completely contrary to the main stream weather community narrative. It just reiterates how much the “Long Range” forecasting profession is quite frankly, a fools errand and even corrupt in some regards! There are just way too many unknown variables to have any sort of accurate consistency with that profession.

Now back to the weather at hand….

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1750221477478011148

[Stratton23]

Glad everyone got much needed rain, but now its time to shut the faucet off for good, rain is becoming too excessive in some areas, looking ahead, on the 12z Euro we start to see a new ridge build over alaska and at the same time, increasing heights over greenland, combine that with what looks to be a very active STJ february looks like a really fun month ahead

[South Texas Storms]

Glad everyone got much needed rain, but now its time to shut the faucet off for good, rain is becoming too excessive in some areas, looking ahead, on the 12z Euro we start to see a new ridge build over alaska and at the same time, increasing heights over greenland, combine that with what looks to be a very active STJ february looks like a really fun month ahead

Nah, we get a week to dry out next week, then the faucet turns back on next weekend into the following week. Good signal for a deep trough over Mexico by that time, with another round of above normal rainfall likely. Bring it on!

[rwfromkansas]

Hopefully it will include further west areas. Unlikely though.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Hopefully it will include further west areas. Unlikely though.

I’m going to hit a foot in Western CoCo if the HRRR holds.

Tanks are full on 155 south out of Weimar to Sheridan.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hopefully it will include further west areas. Unlikely though.

We need more rain over the NCTX area, The lakes to the west and north of DFW still in need of good soaking rains.

[Cpv17]

Hopefully it will include further west areas. Unlikely though.

I’m pretty sure this time it will.

[Cpv17]

Glad everyone got much needed rain, but now its time to shut the faucet off for good, rain is becoming too excessive in some areas, looking ahead, on the 12z Euro we start to see a new ridge build over alaska and at the same time, increasing heights over greenland, combine that with what looks to be a very active STJ february looks like a really fun month ahead

Nah, we get a week to dry out next week, then the faucet turns back on next weekend into the following week. Good signal for a deep trough over Mexico by that time, with another round of above normal rainfall likely. Bring it on!

Really looking forward to this!!

[Stratton23]

Im fine with the rain, but not all at once, spread it out over several days, but yeah I would love a few sunny days now, all this persistent cloudy/ rainy weather makes me feel so tired lol

[Wthrfan]

Probably more tropic forum related but some relevance to our in-season ENSO discussions….what a stat from Ryan Maue!!!

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1750008278279422145

With this and the greatest Arctic Sea Ice extent in over 2 decades currently, it’s completely contrary to the main stream weather community narrative. It just reiterates how much the “Long Range” forecasting profession is quite frankly, a fools errand and even corrupt in some regards! There are just way too many unknown variables to have any sort of accurate consistency with that profession.

Now back to the weather at hand….

Unfortunately, everything is political.

[Cpv17]

Im fine with the rain, but not all at once, spread it out over several days, but yeah I would love a few sunny days now, all this persistent cloudy/ rainy weather makes me feel so tired lol

It has the opposite effect on me lol

[Itryatgolf]

Once we get to February, the days go by really fast and sun angle becomes a big deal. I'm hoping the pattern aligns for cold and active weather sooner rather than later here

[txtwister78]

New Euro Weeklies look a bit more promising if you're hoping for a return of winter weather for a few weeks beginning around the Feb 9th timeframe into mid-month range. Euro keeps an active STJ signal in the extended and so perhaps things could get more interesting at a time where you look for our highest odds of winter precip climatologically. We shall see.