Texas Winter 2023-2024

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1750296602169016723

[Cpv17]

New Euro Weeklies look a bit more promising if you're hoping for a return of winter weather for a few weeks beginning around the Feb 9th timeframe into mid-month range. Euro keeps an active STJ signal in the extended and so perhaps things could get more interesting at a time where you look for our highest odds of winter precip climatologically. We shall see.

What are they showing for overall precipitation?

[Anti-freeze]

Some nice storms coming out of Mexico, and at least for now look like they may water areas further west of San Antonio that mostly missed out previously. Fingers crossed.

[txtwister78]

New Euro Weeklies look a bit more promising if you're hoping for a return of winter weather for a few weeks beginning around the Feb 9th timeframe into mid-month range. Euro keeps an active STJ signal in the extended and so perhaps things could get more interesting at a time where you look for our highest odds of winter precip climatologically. We shall see.

What are they showing for overall precipitation?

First few weeks of February look active/wet overall on this run.

[Itryatgolf]

New Euro Weeklies look a bit more promising if you're hoping for a return of winter weather for a few weeks beginning around the Feb 9th timeframe into mid-month range. Euro keeps an active STJ signal in the extended and so perhaps things could get more interesting at a time where you look for our highest odds of winter precip climatologically. We shall see.

What are they showing for overall precipitation?

First few weeks of February look active/wet overall on this run.

If it's legit, the ensembles will be showing it pretty soon imo

[txtwister78]

What are they showing for overall precipitation?

First few weeks of February look active/wet overall on this run.

If it's legit, the ensembles will be showing it pretty soon imo

Weeklies did fairly well setting up the arctic outbreak so we shall see. MJO has muddied the waters a bit though as it relates to the extended (ensembles don't know how to handle it yet), but we should get a better idea by the end of the month where things are headed in my opinion. My guess is we won't see a repeat of severe cold, but if you want a chance of more winter precip that may actually be a good thing.

[Quixotic]

Let’s hope the euro is right and not the gefs when it comes to the MJO. GEFS has it sitting in 5 & 6 for the length of forecast while euro has it progressing towards 8.

[Itryatgolf]

First few weeks of February look active/wet overall on this run.

If it's legit, the ensembles will be showing it pretty soon imo

Weeklies did fairly well setting up the arctic outbreak so we shall see. MJO has muddied the waters a bit though as it relates to the extended (ensembles don't know how to handle it yet), but we should get a better idea by the end of the month where things are headed in my opinion. My guess is we won't see a repeat of severe cold, but if you want a chance of more winter precip that may actually be a good thing.

In case you don't know, dacula weather mjo is a great place to go for different model projections on the mjo. Curious which model has best track record with the mjo?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Probably more tropic forum related but some relevance to our in-season ENSO discussions….what a stat from Ryan Maue!!!

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1750008278279422145

With this and the greatest Arctic Sea Ice extent in over 2 decades currently, it’s completely contrary to the main stream weather community narrative. It just reiterates how much the “Long Range” forecasting profession is quite frankly, a fools errand and even corrupt in some regards! There are just way too many unknown variables to have any sort of accurate consistency with that profession.

Now back to the weather at hand….

Unfortunately, everything is political.

Yep! Very much so, especially from Maue. With that said, I'm repeatedly reminding people that upper level winds are extremely important for hurricanes, not just warm water.
I'm watching the arctic sea ice growth closely as well. Great to see the growth it's having this year. Let's hope it can continue into the future.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Probably more tropic forum related but some relevance to our in-season ENSO discussions….what a stat from Ryan Maue!!!

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1750008278279422145

With this and the greatest Arctic Sea Ice extent in over 2 decades currently, it’s completely contrary to the main stream weather community narrative. It just reiterates how much the “Long Range” forecasting profession is quite frankly, a fools errand and even corrupt in some regards! There are just way too many unknown variables to have any sort of accurate consistency with that profession.

Now back to the weather at hand….

Unfortunately, everything is political.

Yep! Very much so, especially from Maue. With that said, I'm repeatedly reminding people that upper level winds are extremely important for hurricanes, not just warm water.
I'm watching the arctic sea ice growth closely as well. Great to see the growth it's having this year. Let's hope it can continue into the future.

Yes, unfortunately people can’t separate climate discussions from policy. The Western countries, particularly current admins are harming us long term because of policy and insane, ignorant subsidies.

The worst of the “weather blogging” folks is Eric Holthaus. Don’t get me started on that loser.

[jasons2k]

Lots of rain here Montgomery County. Lake Conroe is above normal levels.

2.34” today

5.90” storm total so far, one more round to go.

[Tejas89]

Classic El Niño winter evening across Texas. Rain train streaming up from northern Mexico and back building.

[gpsnowman]

Flooding sucks but I hope Texas absorbs all the liquid it can. Stay safe SE Texas folks. I loathe the Texas summer. More rain the better overall for the state.

[Cpv17]

That’s quite an interesting setup on the 0z Euro at days 9 and 10.

[cstrunk]

2.29" Monday, 3.68" yesterday, and 0.48" so far today. I've got a 6.45" total in a little over two days.

2.29" Monday + 3.68" Tuesday + 0.66" Wednesday + 0.36" Thursday = 6.99" this week.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW...LONG TERM... /Issued 402 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

Our final rain event will wind down Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Instability will be on the wane Friday evening,
but large-scale forcing for ascent will maintain the thunder
potential, particularly across North Texas. Severe storms are not
anticipated, and the speed of individual cells should preclude
flooding concerns. The convective activity will push off to the
northeast by daybreak, and the associated cold front will then
sweep through the region.

A noticeably cooler but seasonal day will follow on Saturday.
Brisk north winds will add to the chill, and postfrontal low
clouds will keep the sun away from another day. A breezy and
chilly night will follow, with temperatures falling into the 30s.
After a full week under a blanket of clouds, the sun will
appropriately return on Sunday. But with the cold start to the
day, afternoon temperatures will remain seasonal.

Southerly winds will return for the upcoming workweek. The pattern
will promote a significant westerly component that will enhance
the warm-up while keeping Gulf moisture at bay. Despite mostly
clear skies and low humidity, overnight temperatures will also be
above normal. Although extended guidance begins to diverge toward
the end of the month, the consensus is for a protracted rain-free
period into the opening days of February.

[JDawg512]

Climate and weather are intertwined so I don't see how the two can be separated. I think people keep missing the point. Does anyone actually think that the recent Ice growth is hundreds or thousands of years thick? It's thin ice for goodness sake so don't expect it to stick around in the summer months. Overall ice coverage will continue to shrink along with glacial melting as we round out this decade. I'm gonna leave it at that for now. Most people on here should be aware of my stance on the matter. I am saddened to see the disconnect with our impact on planetary patterns. It will be ultimately be our undoing as a species and our destruction.

[Tammie]

From Larry Cosgrove, articles with maps here:
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/25/ ... continued/

“In the past two weeks I had to deal with an ice storm and cold wave that froze my water intake pipe and wrecked by heating coils in the HVAC unit. Then, the weather warmed up and a four-day onslaught of heavy rain and thunderstorms slammed by residence. I had said 6-12″ of water would occur, and received 13.5 inches of H2O. At a time when I would appreciate a period of calm, the model guidance and satellite imagery suggests that the active “parade of cyclones” will continue well into February. With temperature changes involved, of course!

The small storm developing near the “Four Corners” may trigger additional strong convection in Texas and Oklahoma tomorrow, then move on to Appalachia and the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend as (mostly) a rain producer. But it is that system lurking off the West Coast, and the disturbance further west near Japan, that will play a part in the next round of havoc during the 6-10 day period. Unlike previous events, the rain and snow areas should hold together and involve California with widespread heavy precipitation. I favor the low pressure holding together, then redeveloping off of the Texas Gulf Coast around February 3. While all of this is happening, a ridge formation will get going across Alaska and the Yukon Territory.

Undercutting that ridge, and again aiming toward California and Mexico, will be the next storm in the sequence. Like its predecessor, mostly a cold hevay rain event, this new feature will start the process of pulling colder air southward through the High Plains into Texas. The CFS model suite, if used via its upper air depictions, suggest a colder February and early March outcome with an impressive southern storm track.

Never a dull moment, eh?“

[Harp.1]

That’s quite an interesting setup on the 0z Euro at days 9 and 10.

More heavy rain??

[cajungal]

That’s quite an interesting setup on the 0z Euro at days 9 and 10.

More heavy rain??

I read Larry Cosgrove’s latest about a colder February. And an active storm pattern. But no mention of severe Arctic cold. Just colder which is vague