Texas Winter 2023-2024

[mmmmsnouts]

I was just going to say on the big rainfall, it came right after a hard freeze so there was a lot more runoff than usual… therefore more flooding.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Irritates me when Texas floods continuously from these events. They are apart of our climate for a long time. We have events where we get 5" in a day or whatever it is, but somehow still make no changes to prevent it from happening again.

Also, my annual ski trip to Crested Butte is this weekend into next week, which means a heatwave for the mountain region!
After that, it looks like the pattern will shift a -PNA situation.

There’s a difference between the climate changing and developers building cookie cutter subdivisions and strip malls in areas that shouldn’t be developed.

Also, blame our govt. I see a lot of governmental waste in my line of work, but nothing like what started in 2010 with HUD and Section 8 housing. They are building 300k homes for people who could never come close to affording it and they are doing it in flood plains.

I’m not sure how anyone with a functioning brain could look at the Federal Govt and the 4th branch (unelected bureaucrats) and say they do anything well or beneficial for the middle class, of which, most of us here are apart of.

Rant over.

My comment wasnt about the climate changing. These types of storms just happen in Central and SE TX. Nothing to do with climate change, it's just a part of the weather down there. Basically happens every year in some form or fashion but nothing is done. Harvey, which I understand is a generational storm, but hardly anything was done at all. Time to get creative on finding ways to prevent these flooding events from occurring when we have these downpours.

I wasn’t specifically calling you out. It was more of a mass media reaction to a flood.

This is a toothpaste out of the tube problem and it’s going to require a lot of municipal money to civil engineering firms to redirect water. Most major municipalities are broke. One of my good friends manages the pensions for major cities and public works departments across the nation. You’d be appalled at how most major cities are run, including our own in Texas.

So we have broke cities who need to spend money because they built subdivisions and commercial buildings in areas where they shouldn’t have gone.

Yeah, something should be done, but it won’t, because no one here can name one big city council that has a clue about fiscal responsibility….. but it won’t stop the grifters running for office in those cities, telling the public that if you just vote for them one more time, they’ll fart out some unicorn money and magically make the infrastructure happen.

[Quixotic]

There’s a difference between the climate changing and developers building cookie cutter subdivisions and strip malls in areas that shouldn’t be developed.

Also, blame our govt. I see a lot of governmental waste in my line of work, but nothing like what started in 2010 with HUD and Section 8 housing. They are building 300k homes for people who could never come close to affording it and they are doing it in flood plains.

I’m not sure how anyone with a functioning brain could look at the Federal Govt and the 4th branch (unelected bureaucrats) and say they do anything well or beneficial for the middle class, of which, most of us here are apart of.

Rant over.

My comment wasnt about the climate changing. These types of storms just happen in Central and SE TX. Nothing to do with climate change, it's just a part of the weather down there. Basically happens every year in some form or fashion but nothing is done. Harvey, which I understand is a generational storm, but hardly anything was done at all. Time to get creative on finding ways to prevent these flooding events from occurring when we have these downpours.

I wasn’t specifically calling you out. It was more of a mass media reaction to a flood.

This is a toothpaste out of the tube problem and it’s going to require a lot of municipal money to civil engineering firms to redirect water. Most major municipalities are broke. One of my good friends manages the pensions for major cities and public works departments across the nation. You’d be appalled at how most major cities are run, including our own in Texas.

So we have broke cities who need to spend money because they built subdivisions and commercial buildings in areas where they shouldn’t have gone.

Yeah, something should be done, but it won’t, because no one here can name one big city council that has a clue about fiscal responsibility….. but it won’t stop the grifters running for office in those cities, telling the public that if you just vote for them one more time, they’ll fart out some unicorn money and magically make the infrastructure happen.

Don’t be surprised that most people are thieves when opportunity presents itself.

[cstrunk]

Irritates me when Texas floods continuously from these events. They are apart of our climate for a long time. We have events where we get 5" in a day or whatever it is, but somehow still make no changes to prevent it from happening again.

Also, my annual ski trip to Crested Butte is this weekend into next week, which means a heatwave for the mountain region!
After that, it looks like the pattern will shift a -PNA situation.

There’s a difference between the climate changing and developers building cookie cutter subdivisions and strip malls in areas that shouldn’t be developed.

Also, blame our govt. I see a lot of governmental waste in my line of work, but nothing like what started in 2010 with HUD and Section 8 housing. They are building 300k homes for people who could never come close to affording it and they are doing it in flood plains.

I’m not sure how anyone with a functioning brain could look at the Federal Govt and the 4th branch (unelected bureaucrats) and say they do anything well or beneficial for the middle class, of which, most of us here are apart of.

Rant over.

My comment wasnt about the climate changing. These types of storms just happen in Central and SE TX. Nothing to do with climate change, it's just a part of the weather down there. Basically happens every year in some form or fashion but nothing is done. Harvey, which I understand is a generational storm, but hardly anything was done at all. Time to get creative on finding ways to prevent these flooding events from occurring when we have these downpours.

Infrastructure design is done with a cost vs. benefit/risk analysis. There's not enough money to design everything in Texas for a 500-year, Harvey type flooding event. Thus, we typically choose a design storm event that satisfies protection during most, but not all, storm events. 10, 25, 50, and 100 year design storms are most common, and it depends on the facility in question which one gets chosen.

And as others have noted, urban development/expansion has a huge affect on short-term runoff in some areas. Way more impervious area than there used to be, so the ground can't soak it up as much. So even if the actual rainfall amount is the same in a storm that occured now vs. 50 years ago, there will more more runoff now than 50 years ago, thus making the flooding worse.

[DW5522]

Yep government sucks, sooo how about that freezing rain last week that was kinda cool! Fingers crossed for Feb.

[Iceresistance]

I'm ready for the sun, the fog is ridiculous.

[Tammie]

Another excellent read from Larry Cosgrove. Link with maps here:
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/26/ ... h-america/

“In making a forecast for February, I can describe two atmospheric events that must happen. One is the Madden-Julian Oscillation needs to progress from Phases 2,3, and 4 (Indian Ocean and Indonesia/Malaysia) to MJO sectors 6, 7, 8, and 1 (western to central equatorial Pacific Basin). The signature must remain convectively strong and linked to the polar jet stream. This set-up is not evident now but should be in about ten days.

The other issue to look at is the emergence of a threat for a full-latitude, deep storm that shifts into the Southwest, then emerges in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. Aside from a small disturbance exiting the High Plains today (which may go on to trigger some decent snows in Appalachia and New England this weekend), we will probably have to wait until February 3 before one of the larger cyclones below the Aleutian Islands can approach California and northern Mexico. The ridge complex over much of Canada and the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states may not let that system pass. But there is enough evidence from model guidance (CFS, GFS and GGEM panels) to suggest that ridging retrogresses to Alaska and the energy will make a full impact from TX and the Great Plains to the East Coast. When that happens, then the wintry weather will return much like it did in mid-January. My confidence in that scenario is high.

Have a pleasant weekend, and enjoy the lack of frozen pipes, inoperative heaters and flooded yards!”

[gpsnowman]

Another excellent read from Larry Cosgrove. Link with maps here:
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/26/ ... h-america/

“In making a forecast for February, I can describe two atmospheric events that must happen. One is the Madden-Julian Oscillation needs to progress from Phases 2,3, and 4 (Indian Ocean and Indonesia/Malaysia) to MJO sectors 6, 7, 8, and 1 (western to central equatorial Pacific Basin). The signature must remain convectively strong and linked to the polar jet stream. This set-up is not evident now but should be in about ten days.

The other issue to look at is the emergence of a threat for a full-latitude, deep storm that shifts into the Southwest, then emerges in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. Aside from a small disturbance exiting the High Plains today (which may go on to trigger some decent snows in Appalachia and New England this weekend), we will probably have to wait until February 3 before one of the larger cyclones below the Aleutian Islands can approach California and northern Mexico. The ridge complex over much of Canada and the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states may not let that system pass. But there is enough evidence from model guidance (CFS, GFS and GGEM panels) to suggest that ridging retrogresses to Alaska and the energy will make a full impact from TX and the Great Plains to the East Coast. When that happens, then the wintry weather will return much like it did in mid-January. My confidence in that scenario is high.

Have a pleasant weekend, and enjoy the lack of frozen pipes, inoperative heaters and flooded yards!”

Thanks for posting these Tammie. Just like any other winter weather scenario in Texas we need to be patient. I'm ready for Fab Feb but will enjoy the sun and warmer temps before it gets cold again. I do believe a big snow will dump on us sometime in February. Still a lot of winter to go.

[Brent]

NAM is trying to show a little snow here in the morning but otherwise yeah I'm ready for a break and sunny weather. Everyone knows winter isn't over here anyway

[Quixotic]

Strangest El Niño that I remember. The January stuff was more Nina than nino. Now it’s starting to get its act together. If the cold returns I think we will get what we hoped for.

[orangeblood]

Really interesting and anomalous blocking showing up over Hudson Bay on all of the globals....this could set the stage for a really deep/amped up storm to move across the southern US Feb 2-5th

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really interesting and anomalous blocking showing up over Hudson Bay on all of the globals....this could set the stage for a really deep/amped up storm to move across the southern US Feb 2-5th
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/%20namer/z500_anom/1706270400/1707048000-Nba1qBu00qw.png

The models are pretty consistent with that block. Starting next weekend, things look very interesting. Also, if our long range mets are correct, the week after that, we may have a major arctic outbreak.

[Stratton23]

Very impressive hudson bay blocking, fingers crossed the patterns delivers a huge storm

[Ntxw]

If the rex block truly does form like that in C-Canada/Hudson Bay we will be entering a period of model mayhem. There's low chance with the slowed patterned below would they get it right that easily.

[Ntxw]

Also this has been one of the non-warmest mild periods I've seen. Cloudy, damp 50s/60s is not the same as bright and sunny 50s/60s.

[Ntxw]

For fun, 500mb one of North Texas' greatest run of winter/snow...mid Feb 1978.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx pattern looks similar to that 1978 graphic, hopefully we can cash in on a big one!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For fun, 500mb one of North Texas' greatest run of winter/snow...mid Feb 1978.

https://i.imgur.com/rN3C6M9.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yRjaees.png

So there is enough cold air within the low to provide snow for Texas? That's the only thing i was curious about, since it's coming directly from the Pacific.

[Ntxw]

For fun, 500mb one of North Texas' greatest run of winter/snow...mid Feb 1978.

https://i.imgur.com/rN3C6M9.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yRjaees.png

So there is enough cold air within the low to provide snow for Texas? That's the only thing i was curious about, since it's coming directly from the Pacific.

I don't think it will be all that cold. It is later in the winter though, early on there was absolutely no cold. Now it's just modified piece of that Alaskan air. It takes a lot of pieces to go right but not as much needed compared to earlier blocking.

[Stratton23]

New euro weeklies suggest we start getting cold during the first week of february, and the cold pattern stays locked in through the entire month and into the middle of march