Texas Winter 2023-2024

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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3461 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:37 pm

https://twitter.com/KATVJames/status/17 ... 6328981699
Little Rock met with an interesting analog. Bring on another DFW footer!!!
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3462 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:36 pm

Fingers crossed for a big snowstorm!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3463 Postby Itryatgolf » Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:54 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Fingers crossed for a big snowstorm!

I keep hearing 2nd of February for a return to winter. If we can get a -ao/nao, we may be in business.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3464 Postby Itryatgolf » Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:59 pm

gpsnowman wrote:https://twitter.com/KATVJames/status/1751329386328981699
Little Rock met with an interesting analog. Bring on another DFW footer!!!

Eric webb likes that analog also fwiw. In the mid south, we got a big snow beginning of Feb 2010 and then the -nao kicked in after that. Pretty strong
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3465 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:01 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Fingers crossed for a big snowstorm!

I keep hearing 2nd of February for a return to winter. If we can get a -ao/nao, we may be in business.


More like after the 9th of February for Winter to return across the northern half of the state.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3466 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:10 pm

Im hoping this pattern can deliver winter weather opportunities further south than just the northern half of the state
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3467 Postby Quixotic » Sat Jan 27, 2024 10:18 pm

It’s coming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3468 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 27, 2024 10:32 pm

Quixotic wrote:It’s coming.

Agreed. The storm next weekend should just be a rain maker for Texas but a snow whopper for the east coast. But then some colder air should accompany the following storms as they traverse the southern tier. At least that is the plan!! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3469 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 28, 2024 1:00 am

Not sure what happened in Feb of 2010 but boy there is sure a lot of talk about it lately.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3470 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 28, 2024 1:17 am

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2010/02 ... e-century/

https://www.weather.gov/tae/event-20100 ... he%20night.

A couple of articles I found on it. Greatest snow for me living in DFW. Many other areas of the country cashed in as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3471 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:20 am

February 4th-5th timeframe definitely needs to be watched. These are the type of dynamic setups that can sometime overperform models and pull just enough cold air in to deliver. GFS op and its ensemble starting to see it. With the MJO waffling about, you look for these "surprise" events that models don't often see in the long range.

Image
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3472 Postby lukem » Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:23 am

6Z GFS showing some pretty hefty snow amounts in west central and north Texas next weekend. Even if it's not snow, it looks like a ton of precipitation. As someone mentioned earlier, many of the lakes in the western part the state need runoff badly. Hopefully this storm delivers!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3473 Postby Tammie » Sun Jan 28, 2024 11:05 am

txtwister78 wrote:February 4th-5th timeframe definitely needs to be watched. These are the type of dynamic setups that can sometime overperform models and pull just enough cold air in to deliver. GFS op and its ensemble starting to see it. With the MJO waffling about, you look for these "surprise" events that models don't often see in the long range.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1706421600/1707048000-15Chkutcux0.png


I’ll order #p28, please and thank you!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3474 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 28, 2024 11:18 am

Model mayhem period. Road is blocked to the max, will it go left or right?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3475 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:06 pm

Dynamic system still showing on the 12z op run and GEFS, could be an interesting week ahead
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3476 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:35 pm

Lock in 28.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3477 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:51 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Not sure what happened in Feb of 2010 but boy there is sure a lot of talk about it lately.


Feb 2010 was a cold month all across the South. Some -10F along the gulf coast for the monthly average. Pensacola had measurable snow. Not any particularly brutal cold but persistent. It was about as blocky an El Nino period in recent memory. The northern US was warm.

Houston was -9.2F below normal. Only 2 days that month was at or above normal. For the craziness in 2021, it still was not colder for the month than 2010 at IAH.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3478 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Jan 28, 2024 1:13 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3479 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 28, 2024 2:45 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3480 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:27 pm

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