Texas Winter 2023-2024

[gpsnowman]

Bring it back!
 https://x.com/jimnicar/status/1751658093312692635

https://youtu.be/ID_JLO1ad2s?si=JH81XxH2Iio-apuq

We moved from San Antonio to DFW in the summer of 84 and I remember being mad that I missed the epic snow in San Antonio. To be fair Jan and Feb 85 had a couple good snows with some frigid air in North Texas.

[Stratton23]

Right now model support is low for what the GFS shows, we will see if that changes in the coming days

[txtwister78]

Bring it back!
 https://x.com/jimnicar/status/1751658093312692635

https://youtu.be/ID_JLO1ad2s?si=JH81XxH2Iio-apuq

We moved from San Antonio to DFW in the summer of 84 and I remember being mad that I missed the epic snow in San Antonio. To be fair Jan and Feb 85 had a couple good snows with some frigid air in North Texas.

Yeah 80's was an epic decade for severe cold and a few big snowfall events for Texas. Jan 85, we saw two snowfall events in SA. One that began right after New Year's Day and the other came a week later which of course is what the video highlights. Little did I know then how unusual that was for San Antonio or even Texas in general. Feb 2021 would've been great but for the significant power outages/extreme cold.

[gpsnowman]

https://youtu.be/ID_JLO1ad2s?si=JH81XxH2Iio-apuq

We moved from San Antonio to DFW in the summer of 84 and I remember being mad that I missed the epic snow in San Antonio. To be fair Jan and Feb 85 had a couple good snows with some frigid air in North Texas.

Yeah 80's was an epic decade for severe cold and a few big snowfall events for Texas. Jan 85, we saw two snowfall events in SA. One that began right after New Year's Day and the other came a week later which of course is what the video highlights. Little did I know then how unusual that was for San Antonio or even Texas in general. Feb 2021 would've been great but for the significant power outages/extreme cold.

A forum member from San Antonio a few years back had to remind me of when this was, but in January 1982 we had a heavy snow event for a few hours while I was a 2nd grader. Teacher let us kids play in the recess yard. After school the snow had melted completely and the sun was out.

[txtwister78]

Man, just give us enough cold to work with.

[Brent]

Our TV met is saying not til after the 10th for anything wintry. Well see

[Stratton23]

I think better opportunities for wintry precip might not come into picture until after the 10th, we need that MJO to move into phases 8/1 and 2 and its moving at a snails pace right now

[Ptarmigan]

Not sure what happened in Feb of 2010 but boy there is sure a lot of talk about it lately.

Feb 2010 was a cold month all across the South. Some -10F along the gulf coast for the monthly average. Pensacola had measurable snow. Not any particularly brutal cold but persistent. It was about as blocky an El Nino period in recent memory. The northern US was warm.

Houston was -9.2F below normal. Only 2 days that month was at or above normal. For the craziness in 2021, it still was not colder for the month than 2010 at IAH.

https://i.imgur.com/TcgMKZb.png

February 2010 is cold because the temperatures were below average. The highs are over 10°F below normal. The overall daily average for some days are over 15°F below normal.

[Ptarmigan]

https://youtu.be/ID_JLO1ad2s?si=JH81XxH2Iio-apuq

We moved from San Antonio to DFW in the summer of 84 and I remember being mad that I missed the epic snow in San Antonio. To be fair Jan and Feb 85 had a couple good snows with some frigid air in North Texas.

Yeah 80's was an epic decade for severe cold and a few big snowfall events for Texas. Jan 85, we saw two snowfall events in SA. One that began right after New Year's Day and the other came a week later which of course is what the video highlights. Little did I know then how unusual that was for San Antonio or even Texas in general. Feb 2021 would've been great but for the significant power outages/extreme cold.

1980s had a lot of freezes. Same with 1970s. The late 1970s was quite cold. 1880s and 1890s had some big cold blasts in 1886, 1895, and 1899. Think about 1886, 1895 or 1899 type freeze happening today.

[Tammie]

Larry Cosgrove’s take on the weeks ahead: “The aggravation of a slow-to-change weather pattern….”

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/29/ ... r-pattern/

“Sometimes a 500MB longwave pattern sets up that just screams cold and snow. Other times, the numerical models that indicate such a shift keep pushing the event back day by day. In the current situation, it is wisest to hold on to the idea of another flip in the configuration across North America, even though the entire shift in key atmospheric features has been altered, once again, to happen in the middle of next month, and not earlier as was previously described.

The near term outside of the West will be relatively calm and mild, aside from some minor snowfall from the Great Lakes into the Virginias later this week. The cold/moist disturbance affecting California, the Desert and Intermountain Regions will slowly head east, trying to undercut the ridging over Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. Many districts to the left of the Continental Divide will see increased heating demand and deep soil moisture recharge.

It appears that the small storm will progress eastward, just below the Interstate 10 corridor from Texas into Florida from February 3 – 5. Heavy rains are the most probable result, though the impressive cold pool aloft associated with low pressure could support brief snow/sleet as well as intense thunderstorms close to the Gulf Coast. The area from the middle and northern High Plains to Appalachia and the Northeast will stay mild/cool and dry. in the medium range. All the while another, larger and stronger storm will approach the West, and another full-latitude trough looks to take shape close to, or to the right of, the International Dateline.

That broad, strong trough and vortex that forms will be the key to ridge building along the West Coast form Alaska to California. The alignment seems set by all of the model ensemble platforms on February 13, at which time a new Arctic air mass should descend southward through the Prairie Provinces and into the lower 48 states. You can also make out an impulse in the subtropical jet stream coming into Mexico, which could set up a frozen precipitation event in the south central states in the middle period of February.

All of this means is that we need to stay glued to upcoming changes in the forecast pattern. We still have a long way to go before we reach what looks to be a very mild/warm arrangement in the second week of March.”

[Edwards Limestone]

Bring it back!
 https://x.com/jimnicar/status/1751658093312692635

This is awesome. I actually lived in Moore-Hill when I was at UT. My dad lived there in the 1960s when he played football for DKR at Texas.

That is a very steep hill on 21st street! (not 24th actually)

[DukeMu]

We moved from San Antonio to DFW in the summer of 84 and I remember being mad that I missed the epic snow in San Antonio. To be fair Jan and Feb 85 had a couple good snows with some frigid air in North Texas.

Yeah 80's was an epic decade for severe cold and a few big snowfall events for Texas. Jan 85, we saw two snowfall events in SA. One that began right after New Year's Day and the other came a week later which of course is what the video highlights. Little did I know then how unusual that was for San Antonio or even Texas in general. Feb 2021 would've been great but for the significant power outages/extreme cold.

1980s had a lot of freezes. Same with 1970s. The late 1970s was quite cold. 1880s and 1890s had some big cold blasts in 1886, 1895, and 1899. Think about 1886, 1895 or 1899 type freeze happening today.

The Ohio River froze over twice in the late 70s.

[Wthrfan]

We moved from San Antonio to DFW in the summer of 84 and I remember being mad that I missed the epic snow in San Antonio. To be fair Jan and Feb 85 had a couple good snows with some frigid air in North Texas.

Yeah 80's was an epic decade for severe cold and a few big snowfall events for Texas. Jan 85, we saw two snowfall events in SA. One that began right after New Year's Day and the other came a week later which of course is what the video highlights. Little did I know then how unusual that was for San Antonio or even Texas in general. Feb 2021 would've been great but for the significant power outages/extreme cold.

1980s had a lot of freezes. Same with 1970s. The late 1970s was quite cold. 1880s and 1890s had some big cold blasts in 1886, 1895, and 1899. Think about 1886, 1895 or 1899 type freeze happening today.

Those people were of a different stock than most today! Can’t imagine how cold that must have felt without significant indoor heat and poorly insulated housing.

[txtwister78]

Although not a huge surprise with the chaotic MJO, the pattern continues to look delayed if you're a winter weather fan. Models have trended warmer this weekend from just a few runs prior and as a result we watch this disturbance that could now bring some severe weather to portions of SC TX points east Friday night or Saturday.

[Stratton23]

Of course they have trended warmer, what a surprise, good news is the MJO is making progress towards phase 8, I think our best opportunity for wintery precipitation will come after the 10th, slow to change, if we cant get at least one wintry precip event in february, it would be a pretty pathetic way to finish winter

[txtwister78]

Of course they have trended warmer, what a surprise, good news is the MJO is making progress towards phase 8, I think our best opportunity for wintery precipitation will come after the 10th, slow to change, but the cold will win out in due time

I think the 10th looks to be a stretch right now based on the MJO moving back into the warmer phases before eventually swinging back toward 8. Looking more like the 14th-15th right now to me (mid month range) and while that may seem like no big deal, more and more members have slowed with time on getting it there even during that timeframe. Not what you want to see if you're a winter weather fan with these runs so far but that could change.

For a time, it looked as if it wanted to briefly hit 8 before swinging back but now looks less likely hence the warming trend for this weekend.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 it will change i think, but its just going to be a very slow process to occur, even cosgrove says 13th and beyond is when things flip, now if we get closer to that time frame and things are looking still warm ( in the case the mjo is still stuck in phase 7) then winter down here is done, im just hoping for one snow event, even though thats never a guarantee in the state lol

[Stratton23]

I am curious as to why the MJO is almost stalling in phase 7 and not progressing ( yet) what is causing that to happen?

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 it will change, its just going to be a very slow process to occur, even cosgrove says 13th and beyond is when things flip

Based on what I've seen from those who post his discussions on here, it would suggest he's adjusted his timeframe as well based on trends and so like him, I'm not saying it won't happen. All I'm saying is what the trends thus far have shown via the MJO. Naturally, delayed doesn't mean denied but make no mistake signs all point to a warmer first half of February than what some may have thought/hoped for as it relates to the return of winter. In Texas. Keep in mind that window begins to close fairly quickly as we move beyond the mid-month range climatologically.

My main point is you don't like to see the MJO moving back and then stalling/crawling around in those warmer phases in the prime target area where you look for cold in our region.

[Brent]

txtwister78 it will change, its just going to be a very slow process to occur, even cosgrove says 13th and beyond is when things flip

Based on what I've seen from those who post his discussions on here, it would suggest he's adjusted his timeframe as well based on trends and so like him, I'm not saying it won't happen. All I'm saying is what the trends thus far have shown via the MJO. Naturally, delayed doesn't mean denied but make no mistake signs all point to a warmer first half of February than what some may have thought/hoped for as it relates to the return of winter. In Texas. Keep in mind that window begins to close fairly quickly as we move beyond the mid-month range climatologically.

My main point is you don't like to see the MJO moving back and then stalling/crawling around in those warmer phases in the prime target area where you look for cold in our region.

I mean I'm pretty sure winter isn't over especially up here but we still need a lot of snow to get anywhere near climo. That inch or two 2 weeks ago didn't do much and it didn't even snow that much towards OKC and west. Pretty pathetic for up here so far tbh