Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

I think it will move into phase 8 eventually, but its going to be a very very slow process lol

[Itryatgolf]

I think it will move into phase 8 eventually, but its going to be a very very slow process lol

I believe once it happens, the ensembles will adjust accordingly and pretty fast imo

[Brent]

It's official we hit 70 today after we had a high of 6 2 weeks ago

[Ptarmigan]

I notice when it gets cold, it gets very warm.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter Cancel. Alright, let’s see if that gets the ball rolling.

[txtwister78]

As mentioned yesterday this is your target period to watch for a return to winter.

In the meantime, bring on the rain Fri night/early Saturday.

[gpsnowman]

It's that time of year. My nose detects cedar pollen in the air. My first allergy day in many months is here. Just lovely.

[txtwister78]

It's that time of year. My nose detects cedar pollen in the air. My first allergy day in many months is here. Just lovely.

It's factory down here in SC TX from about mid Dec into mid-February. Local news mets in the past have gone up to the Hill Country to literally shake the cedar trees and yeah, it's not a pretty sight...fortunately I don't suffer from it like I do mold but that's something I'm willing to put up with in favor of rain.

[gpsnowman]

It's that time of year. My nose detects cedar pollen in the air. My first allergy day in many months is here. Just lovely.

It's factory down here in SC TX from about mid Dec into mid-February. Local news mets in the past have gone up to the Hill Country to literally shake the cedar trees and yeah, it's not a pretty sight...fortunately I don't suffer from it like I do mold but that's something I'm willing to put up with in favor of rain.

Yeah I've seen some videos from central Texas showing how much pollen gets released just from a breezy day. Add another reason why rain is always good, for ridding the air and ground of that horrible air poison.

[orangeblood]

Orangeblood cosgrove is one of the best meteorologists out there, obviously hes not always right, but he definitely hits the mark more times than he misses with his forecasts, especially with the winter, its very complicated to make a forecast with the MJO being a mess right now, we arent down with winter

Maybe better than most long term mets out there but the point is, the long range forecasting profession is a literal guessing game if trying to pin point 1-2 week periods during a full season. Flip of a coin, casino game. As has been mentioned on here several times....there are just way too many unknown variables to have any soft of consistency in these forecasts. It's almost strictly for entertainment purposes IMHO.

Case in point, most long range mets felt they had a good feel for this upcoming winter/MJO/ENSO patterns then mother nature threw a wrinkle into things (which it always does) - Warm water off the coast of eastern Australia (not seen by any long range model) flared up and now we have the MJO stalling in warm phases during the prime part of the winter season.

Things are slowly starting to progress back to a colder pattern but ++PNA threat (core cold northeast and little moisture) coming into light now. The clock is ticking, TICK-TOCK!!!!

[Cpv17]

Just give me some consistent rains. If we get anything wintry then that’ll just be icing on the cake.

[Tejas89]

A very warm finish to the month is going to temper the record books on an otherwise chilly January.

Even so it’s nice to get outside and work on the patio.

[orangeblood]

Our cold air source region is torching end of week 2 on Ensembles...not a good sign!!

[Brent]

Our cold air source region is torching end of week 2 on Ensembles...not a good sign!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_c_anom/1706616000/1707998400-gGRkpOr3AeY.png

Yeah this is concerning me I've heard from people in Minnesota about the lack of snow this winter and 50s this week.. Shrugs not exactly what you want to hear if you want more winter

[orangeblood]

Our cold air source region is torching end of week 2 on Ensembles...not a good sign!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_c_anom/1706616000/1707998400-gGRkpOr3AeY.png

Yeah this is concerning me I've heard from people in Minnesota about the lack of snow this winter and 50s this week.. Shrugs not exactly what you want to hear if you want more winter

Doesn't look too promising at this point...No pressure builds in Canada, Greenland Block or Siberian Air to tap into. It appears there's just a lot of modified Pacific Air that will be stagnant in North America for quite awhile coming up.

[Stratton23]

The 12z EPS is trending a little more colder looking at surface temperature anomalies for the valentines period, similar to the CMC ensemble , Cold south and a torch in alaska, no big cold, but still trending below normal, in my opinion the valentines time frame maybe our best chance at seeing wintry mischief

[DukeMu]

The NWS 8-14 day outlook for SETX is mild, with a better chance of rain. There's a potential cool down beginning about the 12th, but that may not translate into wintry stuff. Climo puts its thumb on the scale after Valentine's Day and we need a freak 2021 set-up for glory.

I'm enjoying the mild, and DRY weather this week. DPs in the 30s and 40s. It's Chamber of Commerce weather. Give me this in May or June!

We're closing January with about 8.5 inches of precip for the month, ranging from sleet, freezing rain, teeny tiny snow to deluge. Welcome to Texas!

[HockeyTx82]

I find the lack of posts disturbing......

[Brent]

Not even a freeze in sight here wow at the beginning of February!!!

Last year had an ice storm on this date and I don't remember any winter after that

[Lagreeneyes03]

I find the lack of posts disturbing......

Winter may indeed be over, especially since there are many calls for a rapid warm for Spring in March