Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

Winter is not over lol, especially with global/ ensemble guidance showing blocking retrograding over Alaska and a new -NAO signature over greenland as we head towards valentines weekend, this mild pacific air pattern will get eroded with time

[Tammie]

Beautiful graphs of this Pineapple Express. So impressive!
https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/17526687 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Tammie]

Cosgrove weighs in with pretty maps…
“THE THAW ENDS AROUND FEBRUARY”

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/31/ ... bruary-12/

“The warmer values and relatively calm conditions of the January Thaw will stick around into February. But conditions are changing aloft and upstream that will make life uncomfortable for many in North America, with potential cold and frozen precipitation impacts in the middle and later days of the new month.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a big player in the change. While most of the numerical models had the MJO signature weakening and/or retrogressing, satellite evidence shows a huge and strong impulse approaching the International Dateline and beginning to link to the third storm in the polar jet stream sequence. In time this will cause that disturbance to expand and deepen, pumping up ridging along the West Coast and Alaska. Further east, an oceanic storm will force warm advection into Greenland, creating an Omega block. And thus, in Week 2, a -EPO and -NAO scenario that forces cold air out of the Arctic Circle and into Canada and the USA locations east of the Rocky Mountains.

The now-impressive storm in the Gulf of Alaska will be compressed and forced to undercut the Upper Midwest ridge, providing heavy rain and thunderstorms from Texas and Oklahoma through ,most of Dixie, exiting GA and FL on Tuesday morning. Temperatures may drop behind this system, but not for long. It is the mid-month feature that is the concern here.

The second feature will also dig southeast into the Lone Star State, but prove far stronger as ridging shoots up behind its cold pool. Track forecasts suggest a path from C TX into the Hampton Roads VA vicinity, with rain changing to sleet and snow north of the low center. A second wave in the subtropical jet stream looks to target the south central states much in the way we saw in mid-January, with perhaps more precipitation and cold air involved.

So use these relatively nice days (outside of the West, where some ranges will be hit with an absurd amount of snow to go along with cold air) and enjoy the remaining days of the Thaw. Because winter still has some punches to throw at you.”

[Yukon Cornelius]

Not even a freeze in sight here wow at the beginning of February!!!

Last year had an ice storm on this date and I don't remember any winter after that

Same. Both the highs and lows are also being forecasted as warmer and warmer.

[wxman57]

After the partial failure of my Red River wall earlier this month that allowed temps to reach 20F in Houston, I have fired the crew who helped build it and hired a new crew. My new wall will be about 500 ft wide at the base and extend to about 3000 ft up. It will be the best wall yet.

First Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall2.jpg

Newly-Designed Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall1.jpg

[Portastorm]

After the partial failure of my Red River wall earlier this month that allowed temps to reach 20F in Houston, I have fired the crew who helped build it and hired a new crew. My new wall will be about 500 ft wide at the base and extend to about 3000 ft up. It will be the best wall yet.

First Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall2.jpg

Newly-Designed Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall1.jpg

How thoughtful of you, sir! Promoting economic development by creating construction jobs and ensuring pleasant weather all "winter" season.

[gpsnowman]

After the partial failure of my Red River wall earlier this month that allowed temps to reach 20F in Houston, I have fired the crew who helped build it and hired a new crew. My new wall will be about 500 ft wide at the base and extend to about 3000 ft up. It will be the best wall yet.

First Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall2.jpg

Newly-Designed Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall1.jpg

The return of winter is confirmed.

[Fifty Rock]

After the partial failure of my Red River wall earlier this month that allowed temps to reach 20F in Houston, I have fired the crew who helped build it and hired a new crew. My new wall will be about 500 ft wide at the base and extend to about 3000 ft up. It will be the best wall yet.

First Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall2.jpg

Newly-Designed Wall:
http://wxman57.com/images/wall1.jpg

I would have to agree on the firing of the first group. The engineering shortfalls were definitely an issue.

[mcheer23]

Long range GFS pushed right through that wall

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1752747463864131980

[txtwister78]

Still watching Friday night into early Saturday morning for an isolated severe weather threat across SC TX where we may have just enough instability for a few surface based storms. In fact SPC has a marginal risk out now for much of the region. Hail looks to be the main threat, but hopefully we pick up a quick inch or two of rain from this system.

[Texas Snowman]

I realize this is fantasy land, but my goodness…

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1752758561262715190

[orangeblood]

starting to look a little better...ridge more along the coast, not interior and signs of cross polar flow with STJ cutting underneath

[txtwister78]

I realize this is fantasy land, but my goodness…

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1752758561262715190

Nice cross polar flow pattern late in the run with an active jet underneath.... yeah I'll take that all day, but now we wait for ensemble support to start showing up. 500mb heights certainly look favorable around this time. CMC ensembles are out in front for now.

[Iceresistance]

Well hello there, quick start to storm season?


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SC9fb.gif

[Brent]

Our TV met just teased 3 cold icons and a snowflake for mid February

[CaptinCrunch]

starting to look a little better...ridge more along the coast, not interior and signs of cross polar flow with STJ cutting underneath

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1706702400/1708084800-jgOJBjhVhu0.png

That ridge should push more off the west coast and into Alaska, allowing for more of a central to eastern trough for more forcing of that south.

[orangeblood]

starting to look a little better...ridge more along the coast, not interior and signs of cross polar flow with STJ cutting underneath

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1706702400/1708084800-jgOJBjhVhu0.png

That ridge should push more off the west coast and into Alaska, allowing for more of a central to eastern trough for more forcing of that south.

Euro ENS getting there, heights and pressure starting to build where you want to see it...still not getting fresh cold air from Arctic or Siberia yet! Still a lot of Pacific air in North America

[Stratton23]

All of the teleconnections go negative after the 11/12th, this pacific air will eventually get flushed out

[Itryatgolf]

starting to look a little better...ridge more along the coast, not interior and signs of cross polar flow with STJ cutting underneath

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1706702400/1708084800-jgOJBjhVhu0.png

Griteater made a post on Twitter that the pattern should set up very similar to mid January but mjo more in western hemisphere than eastern hemisphere this time

That ridge should push more off the west coast and into Alaska, allowing for more of a central to eastern trough for more forcing of that south.

Euro ENS getting there, heights and pressure starting to build where you want to see it...still not getting fresh cold air from Arctic or Siberia yet! Still a lot of Pacific air in North America

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1706702400/1707998400-Tj8eWBmD2wI.png

Griteater from twitter said the pattern should be very similar to mid Jan but mjo more in western than eastern hemisphere this time