MED: 01M - AVGI - Remnants

[Landy]

Surprised a topic hasn't been made, not sure if it belongs here or in the active storms category since it has no name as of now. Appears to be a non-frontal system travelling southeastward. Latest GFS makes it landfall close to Tel Aviv in a bit less than 18 hours.

[DioBrando]

Surprised a topic hasn't been made, not sure if it belongs here or in the active storms category since it has no name as of now. Appears to be a non-frontal system travelling southeastward. Latest GFS makes it landfall close to Tel Aviv in a bit less than 18 hours.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1202597975784820766/us_sat-en_2024_02_01_12_30_5765_126.png?ex=65ce09a4&is=65bb94a4&hm=d3581d52cfad886c9af2c1cb1185881e91cd1e3cd2fbe2cc5443d3a992386e4d&

How rare is a Tel Aviv landfall

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Surprised a topic hasn't been made, not sure if it belongs here or in the active storms category since it has no name as of now. Appears to be a non-frontal system travelling southeastward. Latest GFS makes it landfall close to Tel Aviv in a bit less than 18 hours.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1202597975784820766/us_sat-en_2024_02_01_12_30_5765_126.png?ex=65ce09a4&is=65bb94a4&hm=d3581d52cfad886c9af2c1cb1185881e91cd1e3cd2fbe2cc5443d3a992386e4d&
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1202624025877286994/meteosat10_medstorm_band02_202402011327.png?ex=65ce21e7&is=65bbace7&hm=468f03c834bdf0bb145473aae5f14c24a6ffe510ee66de4c5f578d37b64aead4&

I only noticed this storm some hours ago. The Hellenic National Meteorological Service named it to 'Avgi' on 28 January, when it was an extratropical windstorm, and it affected Cyprus and South Turkey in the following days. Now this small, but well-defined convective vortex locates over a weakening upper-level low/trough area, however, models indicate very shallow warm core that barely evident even at the 850 hPa level, so it possibly not fully tropical(-like). Despite, the convection is quite strong with cloud top temperatures of -45 to -50 °C.

[cycloneye]

Avgi looks good. I moved the thread to active storms forum.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

This ship reported maximum winds of 27 kt south of the cyclone (32.1N, 31.5E) at 16 UTC: https://www.meteociel.com/temps-reel/obs_boueebateau.php?affint=1&code2=JZR5NVG&jour2=1&mois2=1&annee2=2024
VIS satellite animation:

[Hurricane2022]

Avgi looks good. Hi Landy. Moved the thread to active storms forum.

https://i.imgur.com/CEkRwf0.jpeg

I think Avgi seems to be a strong candidate to compete with TS Marco '08 for the title of smallest (sub)tropical storm on record

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1753152757488582839

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

ASCAT confirmed the maximum winds of 25-30 kt, however, it couldn't catch the very tiny circulation of the cyclone.

[Subtrop]

UKM

ME, 01, 2024020112, 03, UKM, 0, 337N, 307E, 26, 1017, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, , , 221, , , M, , , , , AVGI

[DanieleItalyRm]

Many tiny <45kt storms in the Globe can form small eyes with cloud tops -45/-50C. Especially in tropical transition. AVGI have -52/-55°C max top cloud. See Pablo 10.25.2019, TS wind in 50km radius, 30kt for Ascat but 45kt real. AVGI's EX phase is readable for it is broader. SS/TS phase of AVGI could have maximum winds in just 30km radius.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It made landfall around 06 UTC, and in Bet Dagan (near Tel Aviv) the pressure dropped to 1013.4 hPa with sustained winds of 50 km/h (27 kt) at that time. https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=40179&decoded=yes&ndays=1&ano=2024&mes=02&day=02&hora=18

Based on the available data, it likely was a 35-40 kt storm yesterday.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Real this Winds data?
" maximum gusts of 92 km/h (57 mph) in Haifa, 87 km/h (54 mph) in Ashkelon Port, and 80 km/h (50 mph) in Beit Dagan "
https://watchers.news/2024/02/02/medica ... in-israel/

[Europa non è lontana]

UKM added Avgi to their database yesterday.

[AJC3]

Based on a quick examination of the available data (ASCAT, surface and ship observations) I have labeled this cyclone as a Tropical Depression with peak MSW of 30kt.

Several people have made the case that due to the cyclone's small size, scatterometer data underestimated AVGIs peak winds, and that it may have (or likely) reached tropical storm strength, with MSW of at or slightly above 35kt. While I'm open to that possibility, for now I'm conservatively showing a 30kt peak, with enough of a warm core and great satellite presentation to call it a tropical, rather than subtropical cyclone. Aa always, I am open to changing this if presented with additional convincing data, or a stronger analysis from an official met agency. Feel free to add to this thread with any such data. Thanks.