Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Tammie]

Mr. Cosgrove is a firm believer that Wxman57’s wall will come tumbling down!

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/01/ ... 48-states/

I suspect that after the January Thaw, many are ready to sample the true nature of winter. That appears, gradually, to be the case during the course of the next two weeks, starting in California and the Intermountain Region, then shifting into the Great Plains and Texas before visiting the Northeast.

A storm edging into the Golden State today will deliver astounding amounts of snowfall to the High Sierra. Enough moisture and upper energy are present to support as much as seven feet of new snow in the highest elevations in California and Nevada. The cold-core nature of this feature could trigger thunderstorms and hail from the Pacific shoreline into the Desert Regions. The moisture fetch will resume as the system moves into Texas this weekend, but instability is not particularly high. So while places like Corpus Christi and Houston in TX are liable to see some stronger convection, precipitation amounts will mostly stay between 1 and 2 inches. Some brief sleet or wet snow could occur with the 500MB cold dome in Texas, but no accumulations are likely. The low pressure will move through GA and FL before winding up as an oceanic storm below Bermuda early next week.

So when will the temperatures fall, and how low? You may have noticed that the numerical models do not show exceptional cold just yet, and I doubt that anything really extreme will show in southern Canada or the Upper Midwest until February 12. But given the severity of what is promised by all of the schemes in the 11-15 and 16-20 day time frames, emphasis for Arctic air will shift to east of the Rocky Mountains. The potential is present for a rare -EPO/-AO/-NAO (Alaska/Arctic Canada/Greenland) triple blocking configuration, in conjunction with an active southern branch jet stream running into Mexico then on through Florida. We may see two strong storms arise from this set-up, with frozen precipitation impacts in TX/OK/AR/LA and also in Appalachia, the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The upper air presentation on the ensemble platforms for February 15 – 17 is almost a textbook image of a major Nor’easter. If that is indeed the case, this will be the first time in a long while that the snow-starved Interstate 95 corridor above Richmond VA has a shot at seeing important snowfall.

But let’s not jinx it…give this situation time to develop!

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1753074815681036739

[Brent]

Man, I’d hate to pay some of yalls electric bills.

I had my heat on 90*F from mid-January up until week. Finally turned it down to 80-85*F.

I'm liable to cry when I open my bill...

How is that possible mine never goes above 80 ever or below 65

I can't even imagine my apartment being 90 degrees well it probably was after the derecho in June and I left

[txtwister78]

Slight risk added by SPC to portions of SC TX including the San Antonio metro for tomorrow evening.

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1753104589182894482

[gpsnowman]

Loving this day off. Took the dogs for a walk, picked up a twelver and now I'm sitting outside with a cold Shiner enjoying this warm day. But if it doesn't get cold again with a snowstorm in the next month and change I'm going to be pissed.

[Stratton23]

Regardless of where the core of the cold ends up, we still look likely to be below normal temperatures wise for valentines weekend, just need enough cold air to work with, this pattern is sufficient for that, i think ensembles will adjust a little more westward with time with the cold air, this will be our best shot at wintry precipitation in my opinion

[txtwister78]

Latest extended HRRR brings 2 inches of rain across the San Antonio metro points east with the storms tomorrow night.

[bubba hotep]

Latest extended HRRR brings 2 inches of rain across the San Antonio metro points east with the storms tomorrow night.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin/total_precip_inch/1706810400/1706968800-MKdjpLpiUd4.png

Things look pretty good overall but have trended east pretty hard since last week when it looked like Western North Texas out into the Panhandle were going to cash in.

[Brent]

73 degrees on the first day of February

[Ntxw]

Wonder if we will do a 1973 type precip flip. 1972 was the growing Nino but 1973 was the wetter year backend. So far, for most, 2024 has started wetter than 2023.

Same with 2006-2007.

[Cpv17]

Wonder if we will do a 1973 type precip flip. 1972 was the growing Nino but 1973 was the wetter year backend. So far, for most, 2024 has started wetter than 2023.

Same with 2006-2007.

Can we have a repeat of the 2007 summer? Sign me up!

[Ntxw]

Wonder if we will do a 1973 type precip flip. 1972 was the growing Nino but 1973 was the wetter year backend. So far, for most, 2024 has started wetter than 2023.

Same with 2006-2007.

Can we have a repeat of the 2007 summer? Sign me up!

I mean nothing is sure fire now with a changing averages, but historically during El Nino when the second year is wetter (even with La Nina growing) it's the cooler summer compared to the previous.

[South Texas Storms]

Wonder if we will do a 1973 type precip flip. 1972 was the growing Nino but 1973 was the wetter year backend. So far, for most, 2024 has started wetter than 2023.

Same with 2006-2007.

Can we have a repeat of the 2007 summer? Sign me up!

Yes please! Best weather summer of my life...rained every week and we didn't have any heat waves if I remember correctly

[Stratton23]

Anything to keep away that awful death ridge pattern in the summer for as long as possible ill take

[rwfromkansas]

Wish the rain would trend west. The western N TX lakes need help before La Niña. Again.

[wxman57]

Mr. Cosgrove is a firm believer that Wxman57’s wall will come tumbling down!

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/01/ ... 48-states/

I suspect that after the January Thaw, many are ready to sample the true nature of winter. That appears, gradually, to be the case during the course of the next two weeks, starting in California and the Intermountain Region, then shifting into the Great Plains and Texas before visiting the Northeast.

A storm edging into the Golden State today will deliver astounding amounts of snowfall to the High Sierra. Enough moisture and upper energy are present to support as much as seven feet of new snow in the highest elevations in California and Nevada. The cold-core nature of this feature could trigger thunderstorms and hail from the Pacific shoreline into the Desert Regions. The moisture fetch will resume as the system moves into Texas this weekend, but instability is not particularly high. So while places like Corpus Christi and Houston in TX are liable to see some stronger convection, precipitation amounts will mostly stay between 1 and 2 inches. Some brief sleet or wet snow could occur with the 500MB cold dome in Texas, but no accumulations are likely. The low pressure will move through GA and FL before winding up as an oceanic storm below Bermuda early next week.

So when will the temperatures fall, and how low? You may have noticed that the numerical models do not show exceptional cold just yet, and I doubt that anything really extreme will show in southern Canada or the Upper Midwest until February 12. But given the severity of what is promised by all of the schemes in the 11-15 and 16-20 day time frames, emphasis for Arctic air will shift to east of the Rocky Mountains. The potential is present for a rare -EPO/-AO/-NAO (Alaska/Arctic Canada/Greenland) triple blocking configuration, in conjunction with an active southern branch jet stream running into Mexico then on through Florida. We may see two strong storms arise from this set-up, with frozen precipitation impacts in TX/OK/AR/LA and also in Appalachia, the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The upper air presentation on the ensemble platforms for February 15 – 17 is almost a textbook image of a major Nor’easter. If that is indeed the case, this will be the first time in a long while that the snow-starved Interstate 95 corridor above Richmond VA has a shot at seeing important snowfall.

But let’s not jinx it…give this situation time to develop!

Do not doubt my new and improved wall. I have used the finest granite blocks, some larger than those used in the pyramids. It will hold. Winter is over. The cold-mongering Larry Cosgrove will be thwarted. Here come the 80s later in the month! Meanwhile, I took a vacation day tomorrow to go for a longer bike ride. Low 70s is still pretty cool, so I'll need a long-sleeve insulated jersey.

[gpsnowman]

Mr. Cosgrove is a firm believer that Wxman57’s wall will come tumbling down!

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/01/ ... 48-states/

I suspect that after the January Thaw, many are ready to sample the true nature of winter. That appears, gradually, to be the case during the course of the next two weeks, starting in California and the Intermountain Region, then shifting into the Great Plains and Texas before visiting the Northeast.

A storm edging into the Golden State today will deliver astounding amounts of snowfall to the High Sierra. Enough moisture and upper energy are present to support as much as seven feet of new snow in the highest elevations in California and Nevada. The cold-core nature of this feature could trigger thunderstorms and hail from the Pacific shoreline into the Desert Regions. The moisture fetch will resume as the system moves into Texas this weekend, but instability is not particularly high. So while places like Corpus Christi and Houston in TX are liable to see some stronger convection, precipitation amounts will mostly stay between 1 and 2 inches. Some brief sleet or wet snow could occur with the 500MB cold dome in Texas, but no accumulations are likely. The low pressure will move through GA and FL before winding up as an oceanic storm below Bermuda early next week.

So when will the temperatures fall, and how low? You may have noticed that the numerical models do not show exceptional cold just yet, and I doubt that anything really extreme will show in southern Canada or the Upper Midwest until February 12. But given the severity of what is promised by all of the schemes in the 11-15 and 16-20 day time frames, emphasis for Arctic air will shift to east of the Rocky Mountains. The potential is present for a rare -EPO/-AO/-NAO (Alaska/Arctic Canada/Greenland) triple blocking configuration, in conjunction with an active southern branch jet stream running into Mexico then on through Florida. We may see two strong storms arise from this set-up, with frozen precipitation impacts in TX/OK/AR/LA and also in Appalachia, the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The upper air presentation on the ensemble platforms for February 15 – 17 is almost a textbook image of a major Nor’easter. If that is indeed the case, this will be the first time in a long while that the snow-starved Interstate 95 corridor above Richmond VA has a shot at seeing important snowfall.

But let’s not jinx it…give this situation time to develop!

Do not doubt my new and improved wall. I have used the finest granite blocks, some larger than those used in the pyramids. It will hold. Winter is over. The cold-mongering Larry Cosgrove will be thwarted. Here come the 80s later in the month! Meanwhile, I took a vacation day tomorrow to go for a longer bike ride. Low 70s is still pretty cool, so I'll need a long-sleeve insulated jersey.

Oh come on now. Winter will return. I do hope you will not freeze to death cycling in the 70s. Make sure you bring your First Alert necklace in case you fall and can't get up.

[Stratton23]

I have my cold air demolition on standby for mid month, I will ensure the wall falls! Muwahaha, might as well call me the cold miser lol

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1753261287310594364

[ElectricStorm]

If the 0z HRRR verifies we might see a shift east in the marginal risk across W and C OK. Looks like a decent overnight line although it might be weakening by the time it gets here. I'll certainly take it though.