Texas Winter 2023-2024

[ElectricStorm]

Marginal is slightly further east but not quite here yet, slight risk and 2% tornado area expanded.

[orangeblood]

SOI values for 2 Feb, 2024
Average SOI for last 30 days 2.20
Average SOI for last 90 days -3.36
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -29.01

After a miserable layover, the MJO has finally departed....now time to monitor how this pattern change will evolve!!

But not much on the 2 week horizon according to the Euro ENS, 50 iterations and barely any sniffing the freezing mark

[Tammie]

From Larry Cosgrove this beautiful morning…
A “Conspiracy Of Storms” Scheduled To Bring Winter Precipitation And Arctic Air To Most Of The USA…

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/02/ ... f-the-usa/

“It may seem tough to think about winter right now, even though the calendar reads February 2. After all, the harshest cold is stuck above the Arctic Circle, and the chances for snow are greatest over the mountain ranges of the West. But changes are in store, easily detectable on satellite data and on the numerical model runs. As it turns out, President’s Day weekend could follow a tradition seen in past examples of that holiday.

You know what I am talking about. In my memory, 1979 and 2003 were special, with widespread cases of heavy snow and bitter cold. This is NOT to say that February 16 – 19 will turn out to be like those two cases. But consider that we have had five days worth of model guidance suggesting an impressive storm with a blocking configuration and active subtropical jet stream. I suspect that Arctic air drainage will get going as a James Bay vortex forms in the 11-15 day period, while two disturbances now over the Pacific Basin process and interact with the cAk gyre. Another, larger storm complex over and below the Kamchatka Peninsula will amplify further, settling between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands. That system in turn pumps up an incredible -EPO/-AO/-NAO blocking ridge structure that forces cold air and energy further south and east. Into the U.S.

We should remain with the cold West vs. mild Central/East alignment through February 12 or so. A disturbance moving through Texas into Georgia/Florida this weekend is in itself not a big deal (although producing strong thunderstorms along the Interstate 10 corridor). But a similar, though further south, system ten days from now will start the proverbial ball rolling, setting up a boundary over the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic Ocean. The next two impulses in the series may interact with energy from the Great Lakes to produce a notable system off of the Delmarva Peninsula during the holiday weekend.

Exciting stuff, huh? Have a wonderful first weekend in February. And if you live in/near the High Sierra and San Juan ranges, stay calm and stay safe!”

[Tammie]

Interesting thread by Bastardi:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/175 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Iceresistance]

Interesting thread by Bastardi:

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1753438332552359956

Fixed the Tweet for you

[Tammie]

Interesting thread by Bastardi:

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1753438332552359956

Fixed the Tweet for you

Thank you!!! Still don’t know how to do that!

[Ntxw]

Euro and Canadian gives us a potential cold pool to work with in west-central Canada while the GFS shunts it to Atlantic Canada by mid Feb. Which will be right? Neither is in the range of dislodging any yet.

[Edwards Limestone]

Natural gas markets have completely collapsed.

[Stratton23]

I like the 500 mb height pattern on the GEFS and GEPS, blocking linking from alaska to greeland, also both show a potentially active STJ with disturbances riding in from the desert sw, could be a very interesting period ahead

[orangeblood]

Euro and Canadian gives us a potential cold pool to work with in west-central Canada while the GFS shunts it to Atlantic Canada by mid Feb. Which will be right? Neither is in the range of dislodging any yet.

Pressure Builds starting to finally show up in our source region, end of week 2...still have time to get a memorable last few innings of winter in but a lot of variables still need to come together!

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/noaasatellites/status/1753428558809313343

[ElectricStorm]

Marginal risk expanded east again. First one of the year here

[wxman57]

Punxsatawney Phil has a special look-out hole in my wall. Good to see he's on my side.

http://wxman57.com/images/groundhog.JPG

[Iceresistance]

This was earlier today

 https://twitter.com/WxScholl/status/1753553437751439679

[Iceresistance]

I found this image on a Discord Server (NOT MY IMAGE), picture was taken at 5:15 PM CST


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SClaL.png

[ElectricStorm]

Confirmed tornado near Sagerton, TX. 2% tor area putting in work

[Cpv17]

That’s quite a storm near Haskell

[Iceresistance]

Another one!

 https://twitter.com/wxscholl/status/1753561864171143261

[rwfromkansas]

Anybody going to the storm chaser summit in DFW this weekend?

Looks pretty good. Don’t chase, but some neat sessions.

[gpsnowman]

Gorgeous line of storms headed our way from the west. Too bad most of us will be sleeping as the lines passes through.