SPAC: NAT - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

[div]95P INVEST 240202 1800 20.7S 171.5W SHEM 15 1009[/95Pdiv]

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2S 175.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 174.4W, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS
HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030120Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH CURVED LOW-LEVEL
FORMATIVE CLOUD BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN
AT TAU 36. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER
SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.8S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 172.2W, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS RATHER BROAD, IT IS CONSOLIDATING QUICKLY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), ENHANCED BY A LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A 040000Z PHASE
CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEET SHOWED RESULTS OF INVEST 95P BEING MORE
TROPICAL IN NATURE, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT (AIDED BY A
POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GFS WITH ITS USUAL
FORWARD LEANING CALCULATIONS HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST CONCERNING
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES INVEST
95P WILL CONTINUE ON A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM, THEN
QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT TO A EASTWARD TRACK, REMAINING SOUTH OF AMERICAN
SAMOA, THEN BY TAU 24 MAKE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN GENERALLY
TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA
AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 25 KNOTS WITH A PEAK OF 30KTS. THOUGH INTENSITY
GUIDANCE DOES NOT LIKE THE SYSTEM AS MUCH, IT IS STILL A SLEEPER THAT
SHOULD NOT BE OVER LOOKED WITH IT BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Teban54]

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FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 168.3W TO 16.1S 161.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 168.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 172.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 050109Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER AND
FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING
TOWARDS ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE
ON THE TRACK OF INVEST 95P CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND MAKE AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CLEAR AGREEANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON THE SYSTEM GETTING UP TO 35
KNOTS THEN A SPLIT AROUND TAU 60 WITH SOME SHOWING A STEEP DECLINE AND
OTHERS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[Subtrop]

SH, 10, 2024020512, , BEST, 0, 147S, 1649W, 35, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 75, 1002, 175, 25, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shB52024 to sh102024,

[Subtrop]

GALE WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 051305 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 165.6W AT 051200
UTC MOVING EAST AT 16 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.5S 162.2W AT 060000 UTC
AND NEAR 16.9S 159.1W AT 061200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 002.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 167.2W
AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD06F MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 9
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED FROM THE PAST 6 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AREA OF LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP
YEILDS DT=2.0, PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YEILDS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 15.4S 163.9W MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 16.8S 160.6W MOV SES AT 17 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 18.4S 157.9W MOV ESE AT 16 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 19.4S 156.0W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1754531310125658270

[Subtrop]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 060749 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CATEGORY 1 CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
158.7W AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ONTO THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SUPPOSED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANIZATION
REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT = 3.0, PT AGREE WITH MET = 3.0,
MEANWHILE, FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 17.2S 156.0W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.1S 153.8W MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 18.7S 152.0W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.8S 150.1W MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT[N-E-T] CATEGORY 2 [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1
SOUTH 156.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAUKE OR ABOUT
395KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF AITUTAKI AT 061200UTC. CYCLONE IS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS.
ON THE CURRENT PATH, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE 430KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MAUKE ISLAND OR 640KM EAST OF AITUTAKI ISLAND AT 070000UTC.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ASKMeteo/status/1755694605859688918