Texas Winter 2023-2024

[ATXAG95]

The weeds and grass are starting to try and come out in my yard.

[Brent]

The Euro already lost my snowstorm this weekend

What a winter

[Fifty Rock]

The Euro already lost my snowstorm this weekend

What a winter

Something is out to lunch, you should be in the 50’s and 60’s this weekend.

[DukeMu]

Meanwhile, the trees here are already starting to bloom.

Everything is brown in College Station...except some of the weeds!

I'm seeing 40s and 50s in SETX after Valentine's Day. North Texas *has a chance.* at some wintry stuff.

There's too much brown ground between here and Canada to prevent significant and rapid moderation of any cold air in a blue norther.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro shows arctic air entering the US at the end of its run and entering the texas panhandle , this is the kind of pattern that could deliver winter weather all the way down to the deep south, its still February and this pattern has potential to really unload some much colder air, its not very often you see the teleconnections stay negative for this long, AO, NAO, EPO looks to stay negative through the first week of march

[Iceresistance]

The Euro already lost my snowstorm this weekend

What a winter

Just keep watching the Ensembles, they are still showing a promising signal for Late February/Early March.

[gpsnowman]

I'm smoking ribs all day Sunday for the Super Bowl. Hope all the rain falls on Saturday. Then bring the arctic snow hounds!!!

[Stratton23]

Guidance keeps the teleconnections negative ( especially the AO) through mid march (10-11th ish), not sure ive ever seen a stretch where they stay negative for that long

[txtwister78]

Canadian Ensemble continues to advertise a much colder/active pattern around the 17-21st timeframe. Despite the knock on its operational for having a colder bias, the ensemble actually does fairly well at picking up these colder patterns/airmasses in the long range. The GFS and Euro continue to move slowly in that direction although not as cold yet.

But it seems models are beginning to converge on that 17th-21st timeframe as the time period to really watch across the southern plains. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

AO is tanking.

[Brent]

GFS trying to show that Euro storm from yesterday up here Sunday Monday timeframe

Well it's something anyway

[Itryatgolf]

AO is tanking.

A -epo with a -ao is a good combo and -nao but as you know, don't want it too negative to where we just have cold and dry. My only concern imo

[Ntxw]

AO is tanking.

A -epo with a -ao is a good combo and -nao but as you know, don't want it too negative to where we just have cold and dry. My only concern imo

This looks like a full cryosphere block with +PNA. Storm tracks should be determinate factor with the *coldest* air centered to the east.

Suggestive analogs point towards colder period east of the Rockies by mid month. We're done with the La Nina-esque cold blasts, it's full chill El Nino now coming.

[Stratton23]

full cyropshere block? Ive never heard of that before

[Itryatgolf]

AO is tanking.

A -epo with a -ao is a good combo and -nao but as you know, don't want it too negative to where we just have cold and dry. My only concern imo

This looks like a full cryosphere block with +PNA. Storm tracks should be determinate factor with the *coldest* air centered to the east.

Suggestive analogs point towards colder period east of the Rockies by mid month. We're done with the La Nina-esque cold blasts, it's full chill El Nino now coming.

Do you believe there is reason to be optimistic about upcoming pattern for us?

[Ptarmigan]

The warm has to go somewhere once the cold air goes south. A warm Alaska usually means cold Lower 48.

That's why I like to see Alaska very cold. Stay cold, Alaska!

The ptarmigans will like it.

[Ptarmigan]

AO is tanking.

That could be the start of a cold air heading southwards. Fight sign polar vortex may break off.

[Brent]

A -epo with a -ao is a good combo and -nao but as you know, don't want it too negative to where we just have cold and dry. My only concern imo

This looks like a full cryosphere block with +PNA. Storm tracks should be determinate factor with the *coldest* air centered to the east.

Suggestive analogs point towards colder period east of the Rockies by mid month. We're done with the La Nina-esque cold blasts, it's full chill El Nino now coming.

Do you believe there is reason to be optimistic about upcoming pattern for us?

JB is comparing it to around January 20 1985 but that appears to have been dry cold here

Also its JB so take it with a grain of salt. I don't want dry cold anyway. If were gonna do this it better snow or I would just assume we move onto spring

[Stratton23]

Overnight ensembles continue to come in colder

[Harp.1]

Overnight ensembles continue to come in colder

When will all of this start showing up on the operational model runs?