2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1755650386415718631

I also plotted the OISST data and added 2005 and 2010 there for comparison. 2024 is nearly 2 month ahead of 2005/2010 and 4 month ahead of climo

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1755650386415718631

https://i.imgur.com/9yJAchD.png
I also plotted the OISST data and added 2005 and 2010 there for comparison. 2024 is nearly 2 month ahead of 2005/2010 and 4 month ahead of climo

Truly in a league of its own. No longer will we use those years to gauge the upper bounds of warmth in the tropical Atlantic.

[Woofde]

Another interesting factor in the NMME is the negative PDO. While the SSTs show up as marginally above average, the general horseshoe pattern is very clear. Cansips show this as well. This would generally suppresses the Eastern Pacific and favor the Atlantic.

A likely la Nina or atleast neutral Enso, extremely warm AMO and a favorable PDO, this season definitely has potential. If we make it past the spring barrier and not much has changed, I'm betting on some extreme forecasts. It's hard to see anything that could hinder it right now

[Deshaunrob17]

The MDR been at least .85 degrees C warmer than normal since November Current it’s 1.2 degrees warmer than normal - Yikes….Remember the years when it would be a huge milestone to hit .8 degrees warmer than normal

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a little thing to keep in mind.

2013 as of February 7:


2024 as of February 7:

[cycloneye]

Animation of the Coral Reef shows how the ENSO area is getting less warm with time. And on the Atlantic side, wow, look at the canary current how warm it is.

[Teban54]

Something to keep in mind: There's still a high degree of uncertainty regarding steering patterns and thus tracks, as shown by NMME members.

(A comment also mentions model skills in predicting track patterns via precip anomalies seem to have improved, with 2022 and 2023 as examples.)

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1755215927279247375

[cycloneye]

Something to keep in mind: There's still a high degree of uncertainty regarding steering patterns and thus tracks, as shown by NMME members.

(A comment also mentions model skills in predicting track patterns via precip anomalies seem to have improved, with 2022 and 2023 as examples.)

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1755215927279247375?s=20

In terms of tracks, the analog 1933 that has been mentioned a lot on social media, had different tracks.

[Blown Away]

Something to keep in mind: There's still a high degree of uncertainty regarding steering patterns and thus tracks, as shown by NMME members.

(A comment also mentions model skills in predicting track patterns via precip anomalies seem to have improved, with 2022 and 2023 as examples.)

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1755215927279247375?s=20

In terms of tracks, the analog 1933 that has been mentioned a lot on social media, had different tracks.


https://i.imgur.com/AkOYcfw.jpeg

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/climaterisks/ ... 4enso.html

1933 may be a good analog, La Nina appeared @May and peaked during the hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Not so fast the warming in MDR?

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1756024360916193412




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756024736578945387

[zzzh]

Those models are playing catchup, it's been correcting themself since Dec.

[SFLcane]

Not so fast the warming in MDR?

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1756024360916193412

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756024736578945387

The effect will be minimal folks are reading into that too much.

[Hurricane2022]

Not so fast the warming in MDR?

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1756024360916193412

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756024736578945387

Andy Hazelton must be raw from scratching himself to start canceling the 2024 season... But either way, since it's still February, we really have to watch how things play out before we scream across the 7 seas and continents that This season will rival 1933, 2004, 2005 and perhaps 2017 in terms of cyclonic activity, despite the waters being well above the normal temperature for this month, as everyone already knows. There are many things that could come up at the last minute and prevent 2024 from being extremely active and possibly record-breaking, as we saw in 2022, and accidentally in late 2021.

[cycloneye]

The C35 looks the sane as NMME and CanSips.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756307161213251667




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756308104201793901

[LemieT]

The C35 looks the sane as NMME and CanSips.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756307161213251667

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756308104201793901

I think it's safe to say even at this early stage that 2024 should turn out to be an active year. Let's leave the *hyperactive* discussion off the table for now but barring something really drastic and completely unforeseen (THC collapse, "wave-breaking" I'm looking at you ), it's hard to see how this season doesn't produce healthy numbers.

For me a larger takeaway from all that we have seen is at least we should all be preparing for increased heavy precip. events. The Caribbean islands especially should make sure flood preps are in place, enacted or updated as a matter of urgency. Even if no named storms impact the region, based on what the models are currently suggesting (wet Caribbean look), we need to be on the lookout for high impact rain events this year.

[cycloneye]

The C35 looks the sane as NMME and CanSips.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756307161213251667

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756308104201793901

I think it's safe to say even at this early stage that 2024 should turn out to be an active year. Let's leave the *hyperactive* discussion off the table for now but barring a really drastic and completely unforeseen (THC collapse, "wave-breaking" I'm looking at you ), it's hard to see how this season doesn't produce healthy numbers.

For me a larger takeaway from all that we have seen is at least we should all be preparing for increased heavy precip. events. The Caribbean islands especially should make sure flood preps are in place, enacted or updated as a matter of urgency. Even if no named storms impact the region, based on what the models are currently suggesting (wet Caribbean look), we need to be on the lookout for high impact rain events this year.

Also another drastic, that El NIño stays thru the summer. Agree 100% about the Caribbean.

[LemieT]

The C35 looks the sane as NMME and CanSips.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756307161213251667

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756308104201793901

I think it's safe to say even at this early stage that 2024 should turn out to be an active year. Let's leave the *hyperactive* discussion off the table for now but barring a really drastic and completely unforeseen (THC collapse, "wave-breaking" I'm looking at you ), it's hard to see how this season doesn't produce healthy numbers.

For me a larger takeaway from all that we have seen is at least we should all be preparing for increased heavy precip. events. The Caribbean islands especially should make sure flood preps are in place, enacted or updated as a matter of urgency. Even if no named storms impact the region, based on what the models are currently suggesting (wet Caribbean look), we need to be on the lookout for high impact rain events this year.

Also another drastic, that El NIño stays thru the summer. Agree 100% about the Caribbean.

More than most, we who follow the weather know that NOTHING is off the table. Like Mark Sudduth usually says, probability is only 100% when it's actually happening.

[LemieT]

The C35 looks the sane as NMME and CanSips.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756307161213251667

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756308104201793901

I think it's safe to say even at this early stage that 2024 should turn out to be an active year. Let's leave the *hyperactive* discussion off the table for now but barring something really drastic and completely unforeseen (THC collapse, "wave-breaking" I'm looking at you ), it's hard to see how this season doesn't produce healthy numbers.

For me a larger takeaway from all that we have seen is at least we should all be preparing for increased heavy precip. events. The Caribbean islands especially should make sure flood preps are in place, enacted or updated as a matter of urgency. Even if no named storms impact the region, based on what the models are currently suggesting (wet Caribbean look), we need to be on the lookout for high impact rain events this year.

To quote myself from last year's indicators thread:

QUOTE (really copy and paste )
I was reading some early season forecasts and the reasoning behind them for 2017. Models late in the pre-season suggested a possible El Nino forming by peak seaosn and no one really knew what the season would hold. Even after Harvey formed East of Barbados in mid-August a lot of people were declaring the MDR dead due to dry air. We all know how that panned out.

I have found in many cases the big years had some seemingly clear negative factors going against them from early. Seasons where all of the markers suggested they would/should be favorable, often struggled with a previously silent hinderance; 2013/2022 of most recent vintage.

I put it like this, sometimes you can have "too much of a good thing". 2020 was also a case like this even though it had a record number of storms, the ACE really didn't bear out its potential. The WAM was alsmot too strong and the waves too big so it was overwhelming itself.

Last year amid the hype I went 17/8/3 ACE:135 for my numbers and still busted high.
This year I am 15/7/3 ACE:105 and in some ways I feel I will be on the other side of the spectrum this time around.

Time always tells and it seems very rare in this modern era for a season to go by without one blockbuster storm, active or not. To that end, I say the hurricane season is never "dead". (END QUOTE)

Moral of the story: We have no idea what's coming. This is what makes this process of forecasting every year so exciting, challenging, mentally stimulating and dare I say it, addictive.
The signs are ominous to be sure, but always leave room for something completely unforeseen to throw a wrench into the works.
Bottom line is: BE PREPARED

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Nothing that hasn't been said already but here's 2005/2010/2024 compared graphically (Feb 9 because the 10th isn't available on the site:):

[zzzh]

Feb 9 is also the latest date I can find. I think it takes a day for OISST to update, so it will always be 1 day behind.

(Thanks to weatherbell.com for the colorbar )