Texas Winter 2023-2024

[orangeblood]

GFS and Canadian Operationals big outliers when compared to their ENS members...Arctic HP coming down next week not even close to what the Ops are showing!

[Stratton23]

Looks like the euro maybe caving towards the CMC as well

[Stratton23]

Euro has caved at least with the 500 mb pattern setup, all three globals show a system ejecting out of mexico with some cold air trying to meet up, interesting week ahead

[Ntxw]

Euro has caved at least with the 500 mb pattern setup, all three globals show a system ejecting out of mexico with some cold air trying to meet up, interesting week ahead

Can already smell this could be another case of cold air damming and upper levels not agreeing. By the way, heard the Euro OP is going away this year as it is currently.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx really? Any reason why they would get rid of the euro Op? That is some really interesting news

[orangeblood]

Euro has caved at least with the 500 mb pattern setup, all three globals show a system ejecting out of mexico with some cold air trying to meet up, interesting week ahead

Can already smell this could be another case of cold air damming and upper levels not agreeing. By the way, heard the Euro OP is going away this year as it is currently.

Doesn't look quite right for that...west coast ridge isn't strong enough, even dense cold will likely get crushed by the Pacific jet crash coming through. Westerlies are way too strong almost at all levels above surface for any prolonged cold air damming IMHO

[Ntxw]

Ntwx really? Any reason why they would get rid of the euro Op? That is some really interesting news

StormVista put out an excerpt not long ago. ENS will run earlier and basically control is the Euro. We'll have to see, it's later in the year I think.

[Ntxw]

Euro has caved at least with the 500 mb pattern setup, all three globals show a system ejecting out of mexico with some cold air trying to meet up, interesting week ahead

Can already smell this could be another case of cold air damming and upper levels not agreeing. By the way, heard the Euro OP is going away this year as it is currently.

Doesn't look quite right for that...west coast ridge isn't strong enough, even dense cold will likely get crushed by the Pacific jet crash coming through. Westerlies are way too strong almost at all levels above surface for any prolonged cold air damming IMHO

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1707480000/1708041600-Ge2pqlajA7w.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1707480000/1708257600-pplaTSvbeig.png

Your points are valid and is a concern. But it is also not impossible for things to sway with even a little opening. There will be a HP dome sitting over the US-Canadian border the ENS have shown this for over a week. If there is any weakness to our south/southwest, it is also a magnet for cold to pool, i.e. HP transport cold air damming. Could it be moderated? Certainly, but we're looking at possibilities here. Besides we don't need brutal cold, just cold enough for a chance.

Contrary after 1 month below we are risk for another much above normal month, what's new there. Doesn't matter the ENSO. It's like without anomalous patterns we revert back to the old warmth regime.

[Brent]

Truly amazing how we can't get any good trends here for snow even up here.. the 3km NAM has zero snow

If Sunday busts they were so dead wrong about this entire winter here. Like I don't even get it people said it would be better than last winter and it's not been at all

[Ntxw]

Truly amazing how we can't get any good trends here for snow even up here.. the 3km NAM has zero snow

If Sunday busts they were so dead wrong about this entire winter here. Like I don't even get it people said it would be better than last winter and it's not been at all

Kind of wild when the runs were showing 3 feet of snow. Track/precip shield has shifted somewhat south, with still marginal cold outside the Panhandles. Amarillo-Lubbock may cash big on this one. Might be colder west and southwest of the ULL than north.

Even central Texas might be colder at the surface than parts of northeast Oklahoma as the low crosses.

[vbhoutex]

This is SE Texas centric.
​

Lindner, Jeff (Flood Control)​
Fri 2/9/2024 7:08 AM
Heavy Rainfall possible over the area on Saturday.

A slow moving frontal boundary combined with a strong upper level disturbance and increasing moisture over the area will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. A weak and slow moving cold front will creep into the area late tonight and slowly progress southward on Saturday. An upper level disturbance ejecting out of a large trough over the SW US will move across SE TX on Saturday with lift increasing around sunrise and lasting into the afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region as early as sunrise, but more likely in the 900am-300pm time period. Given the moisture values in place over the region, heavy rainfall will be possible. High resolution guidance shows a period around midday on Saturday where cell training along the slow moving boundary is possible and global guidance has been showing this for days with varying locations. High resolution guidance varying on the location from the US 59 corridor to the HWY 105 corridor for the potential for cell training along the slow moving front. Will have to monitor the frontal movement to see where the boundary lies as the upper level disturbance moves across…WPC has outlooked a large portion of the area in a marginal and slight risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding on Saturday.

Rainfall:

Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible near/along the stalling frontal boundary which currently looks to be north of US 59/I-10. Isolated higher amounts are certainly possible especially if we are able to get deeper convection going. Guidance continues to suggest the corridor from about Sealy to Hempstead to Conroe with the greatest focus, but this could shift around some. Elsewhere rainfall amounts of generally less than an inch is expected. Higher resolution guidance is a bit further south with the axis of heavier rainfall…running from about Wallis to Katy to The Woodlands to Cleveland compared to the global guidance which is further north. Think the high resolution guidance may be on the right track as they usually capture these sort of weak boundaries/fronts better.

Hydro:

Grounds are wet from the recent rains and additional heavy rainfall will quickly convert to run-off. High resolution guidance are pointing toward areas that area already sensitive to additional heavy rainfall. Good news is this looks to be a fairly narrow band with rainfall totals dropping off to the south and north and this will help to cut back on overall run-off into area watersheds, but where the heavy rain does fall…rises on creeks and rivers will be possible into the weekend and early next week (northern Waller, northwest Harris, and Montgomery Counties). The San Jacinto basin remains vulnerable to heavy rainfall with full pools at both Conroe and Houston, above normal flows in tributaries, and wet grounds across the entire basin.

Severe Threat:

There will be a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms on Saturday morning into afternoon along and ahead of the weak front where surface destabilization is greatest. Overall instability is lacking, but enough to support a few strong to severe storms with a damaging wind gust threat. The risk of severe weather continues into Sunday as the main storms system moves across TX…but this looks focused to our northeast.

Sea Fog:

Dewpoints are now above nearshore water temperatures and Galveston experienced their first bout of sea fog between 400am and 600am this morning when visibilities dropped to 1.25 miles. Little change is expected through the weekend with warm dewpoints over the colder water temperatures leading to sea fog formation. Fog will likely lock in along the coast today and move inland some each evening. Visibilities will vary significantly over short distances. Sea fog will end on Sunday evening as a cold front sweeps off the coast.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Euro has caved at least with the 500 mb pattern setup, all three globals show a system ejecting out of mexico with some cold air trying to meet up, interesting week ahead

Can already smell this could be another case of cold air damming and upper levels not agreeing. By the way, heard the Euro OP is going away this year as it is currently.

DFW Ice Storm?

[jasons2k]

Truly amazing how we can't get any good trends here for snow even up here.. the 3km NAM has zero snow

If Sunday busts they were so dead wrong about this entire winter here. Like I don't even get it people said it would be better than last winter and it's not been at all

Kind of wild when the runs were showing 3 feet of snow. Track/precip shield has shifted somewhat south, with still marginal cold outside the Panhandles. Amarillo-Lubbock may cash big on this one. Might be colder west and southwest of the ULL than north.

Even central Texas might be colder at the surface than parts of northeast Oklahoma as the low crosses.

When I was at TTexas TTech in the 90’s, we experienced this a couple of times with cold-core ULLs in a Pacific Airmass being just cold enough to get us snow up on the Llano Estacado. One time, we spent an entire Met class analyzing the event with Dr. Peterson. Fun times.

[ElectricStorm]

Truly amazing how we can't get any good trends here for snow even up here.. the 3km NAM has zero snow

If Sunday busts they were so dead wrong about this entire winter here. Like I don't even get it people said it would be better than last winter and it's not been at all

Most winters here in the last 10 years or so outside of Feb 2021 have been pretty bad for snow. It seems like we'll get a small storm sometimes but not anything big. Honestly most winters now seem to be a few cold shots and otherwise pretty mild.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Snow forecast looking better for us now, with a winter storm watch in place. Fingers crossed.

[SnowintheFalls]

Snow forecast looking better for us now, with a winter storm watch in place. Fingers crossed.

Let's hope that it pushes a bit more south. It is frustrating being right on the line!

[Brent]

I've found models that don't even RAIN here now on Sunday...

All I can do is laugh at this point

[Yukon Cornelius]

Snow forecast looking better for us now, with a winter storm watch in place. Fingers crossed.

Let's hope that it pushes a bit more south. It is frustrating being right on the line!

It seems to be trending more south. Let’s hope.

[orangeblood]

Turn out the lights ladies and gentlemen!! See you all next winter…

[Gotwood]

Turn out the lights ladies and gentlemen!! See you all next winter…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1707501600/1708884000-qKPscrkaSUg.png

Yeah I’m honestly intrigued by the spring feels like it has a chance to produce quite a few severe chances.