Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

Starting to mix at 38-39 degrees here. What a weird storm. We may not even go below freezing the entire event

[Wthrfan]

Was in downtown OKC for a Superbowl party and headed home early because it was accumulating on the roads. Got back to north Edmond and the grass isn’t even covered with a mix of snow and rain at 35 degrees. 10 miles south made all the difference.

[Gotwood]

So what is the current consensus? Winter over?

[kirium]

Was in downtown OKC for a Superbowl party and headed home early because it was accumulating on the roads. Got back to north Edmond and the grass isn’t even covered with a mix of snow and rain at 35 degrees. 10 miles south made all the difference.

I'm also in Edmond, we've been just north of the snow line since like 5pm. I mean it's snowed, but been almost all mix.

[Stratton23]

Models are trending colder for this weekend, will need to watch this weekend as models differ on the evolution of a storm coming out of mexico and the trough dropping down from the central US, GFS digs it a bit more to the west, cmc not so much

[Brent]

So what is the current consensus? Winter over?

Sure looks like it. My coldest high is mid 40s and way too many 60s and time is ticking and I'm tired of hearing about the SSW or whatever it is. Clearly it's not helping

Even this snow tonight... It's gonna be gone quick. We may push 50 tomorrow afternoon shrugs

[Gotwood]

So what is the current consensus? Winter over?

Sure looks like it. My coldest high is mid 40s and way too many 60s and time is ticking and I'm tired of hearing about the SSW or whatever it is. Clearly it's not helping

Even this snow tonight... It's gonna be gone quick. We may push 50 tomorrow afternoon shrugs

Very weird winter for sure.

[Brent]

Wow the warm air destroyed us here

I don't want to talk about this absolutely pathetic embarrassing joke of a winter ever again. It's too late to make up for it now. Dont care what the rest of it does we wasted our chances because of this stupid endless Pacific air

Bring on La Nina. It can't possibly get any worse

[Gotwood]

Wow the warm air destroyed us here

I don't want to talk about this absolutely pathetic embarrassing joke of a winter ever again. It's too late to make up for it now. Dont care what the rest of it does we wasted our chances because of this stupid endless Pacific air

Bring on La Nina. It can't possibly get any worse

Who would have thought the January thaw would turn into winter cancel? lol. I greatly regret not taking my Colorado trip this year.

[Brent]

Wow the warm air destroyed us here

I don't want to talk about this absolutely pathetic embarrassing joke of a winter ever again. It's too late to make up for it now. Dont care what the rest of it does we wasted our chances because of this stupid endless Pacific air

Bring on La Nina. It can't possibly get any worse

Who would have thought the January thaw would turn into winter cancel? lol. I greatly regret not taking my Colorado trip this year.

I have so many regrets this winter. I mean I almost went to Kansas in November but my brain was like just wait we'll get ours. I just can't believe it that again we didn't. Like I don't understand

Although I may still go to Colorado I've had a plan floating around all winter and this may be the right time to go I dunno

[wxman57]

Wow the warm air destroyed us here

I don't want to talk about this absolutely pathetic embarrassing joke of a winter ever again. It's too late to make up for it now. Dont care what the rest of it does we wasted our chances because of this stupid endless Pacific air

Bring on La Nina. It can't possibly get any worse

Typical El Nino winter, Brent. We had 5 freezes here in Houston last month, which is a little colder than normal. Lots and lots of rain (11") over the past 6 weeks. Yep, that's El Nino. We managed to reach 80 degrees in much of Houston yesterday afternoon (IAH only 78). Felt great until that cold air reached us late in the afternoon.

GFS keeps flip-flopping on the strength of Saturday's front. Euro and Canadian has a moderate cold front, similar to the 06Z GFS. Possibly 30s in SE TX Monday, then back up to close to 80 by mid week. Hopefully, that's it for winter. On to the warmth of spring!

[Brent]

Wow the warm air destroyed us here

I don't want to talk about this absolutely pathetic embarrassing joke of a winter ever again. It's too late to make up for it now. Dont care what the rest of it does we wasted our chances because of this stupid endless Pacific air

Bring on La Nina. It can't possibly get any worse

Typical El Nino winter, Brent. We had 5 freezes here in Houston last month, which is a little colder than normal. Lots and lots of rain (11") over the past 6 weeks. Yep, that's El Nino. We managed to reach 80 degrees in much of Houston yesterday afternoon (IAH only 78). Felt great until that cold air reached us late in the afternoon.

GFS keeps flip-flopping on the strength of Saturday's front. Euro and Canadian has a moderate cold front, similar to the 06Z GFS. Possibly 30s in SE TX Monday, then back up to close to 80 by mid week. Hopefully, that's it for winter. On to the warmth of spring!

See but everyone here said no way it'll be as bad as last winter and yet in some ways I feel like it's been worse. I mean I've missed a foot of snow this winter by 3 hours to be that close just sucks. I feel like our pattern is changing and it's never going to snow like it used to here. 2 years of this nonsense

[wxman57]

See but everyone here said no way it'll be as bad as last winter and yet in some ways I feel like it's been worse. I mean I've missed a foot of snow this winter by 3 hours to be that close just sucks. I feel like our pattern is changing and it's never going to snow like it used to here. 2 years of this nonsense

The fast zonal flow is never conducive to snow down south. A pretty strong El Nino will do that. Most El Nino winters are cold and wet down south. Some are snowier than others. We'll be in La Nina next winter. I'll bet we see a significantly different winter pattern, although La Nina winters are typically warmer and drier down here. I've been following the weather for 60+ years (44 professionally). The pattern will change to a very snowy one, eventually.

[bubba hotep]

00z Ensembles say, "Move on to the Spring Thread"

[Brent]

00z Ensembles say, "Move on to the Spring Thread"

Fine with me. Its not going to snow anyway so what's the point

[orangeblood]

See but everyone here said no way it'll be as bad as last winter and yet in some ways I feel like it's been worse. I mean I've missed a foot of snow this winter by 3 hours to be that close just sucks. I feel like our pattern is changing and it's never going to snow like it used to here. 2 years of this nonsense

The fast zonal flow is never conducive to snow down south. A pretty strong El Nino will do that. Most El Nino winters are cold and wet down south. Some are snowier than others. We'll be in La Nina next winter. I'll bet we see a significantly different winter pattern, although La Nina winters are typically warmer and drier down here. I've been following the weather for 60+ years (44 professionally). The pattern will change to a very snowy one, eventually.

The strange dynamic is that almost the entire Northern Hemisphere is substantially above normal the past 2 months, this warmer base state has thrown a wrinkle into this winter. It should be more below normal that what has occurred across southern US during a typical El Nino.

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/19/tonga-volcano-eruption-ozone-depletion/

[South Texas Storms]

So disappointing to see what was expected to be a nice widespread soaking rain event across much of the state this weekend disappear due to a stronger northern stream disturbance. Models were consistent for days predicting 1-2 inches for most areas and now it's just down to deep south TX.

[bubba hotep]

See but everyone here said no way it'll be as bad as last winter and yet in some ways I feel like it's been worse. I mean I've missed a foot of snow this winter by 3 hours to be that close just sucks. I feel like our pattern is changing and it's never going to snow like it used to here. 2 years of this nonsense

The fast zonal flow is never conducive to snow down south. A pretty strong El Nino will do that. Most El Nino winters are cold and wet down south. Some are snowier than others. We'll be in La Nina next winter. I'll bet we see a significantly different winter pattern, although La Nina winters are typically warmer and drier down here. I've been following the weather for 60+ years (44 professionally). The pattern will change to a very snowy one, eventually.

The strange dynamic is that almost the entire Northern Hemisphere is substantially above normal the past 2 months, this warmer base state has thrown a wrinkle into this winter. It should be more below normal that what has occurred across southern US during a typical El Nino.

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/19/tonga-volcano-eruption-ozone-depletion/

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/cdas-all/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_60day_back/1707717600-4lvmvkK6Z70.png

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics.

Yeah, the research that I've looked into seems to back this up. However, there isn't much talk about it, which is odd.

[Ntxw]

The fast zonal flow is never conducive to snow down south. A pretty strong El Nino will do that. Most El Nino winters are cold and wet down south. Some are snowier than others. We'll be in La Nina next winter. I'll bet we see a significantly different winter pattern, although La Nina winters are typically warmer and drier down here. I've been following the weather for 60+ years (44 professionally). The pattern will change to a very snowy one, eventually.

The strange dynamic is that almost the entire Northern Hemisphere is substantially above normal the past 2 months, this warmer base state has thrown a wrinkle into this winter. It should be more below normal that what has occurred across southern US during a typical El Nino.

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/19/tonga-volcano-eruption-ozone-depletion/

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/cdas-all/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_60day_back/1707717600-4lvmvkK6Z70.png

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics.

Yeah, the research that I've looked into seems to back this up. However, there isn't much talk about it, which is odd.

The ocean-atmosphere couplet was warming well before that. It is difficult to amount how much the Tongan water vapor increased this over it, though I'm sure it did since WV is a greenhouse gas.

[orangeblood]

The fast zonal flow is never conducive to snow down south. A pretty strong El Nino will do that. Most El Nino winters are cold and wet down south. Some are snowier than others. We'll be in La Nina next winter. I'll bet we see a significantly different winter pattern, although La Nina winters are typically warmer and drier down here. I've been following the weather for 60+ years (44 professionally). The pattern will change to a very snowy one, eventually.

The strange dynamic is that almost the entire Northern Hemisphere is substantially above normal the past 2 months, this warmer base state has thrown a wrinkle into this winter. It should be more below normal that what has occurred across southern US during a typical El Nino.

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/19/tonga-volcano-eruption-ozone-depletion/

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/cdas-all/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_60day_back/1707717600-4lvmvkK6Z70.png

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics.

Yeah, the research that I've looked into seems to back this up. However, there isn't much talk about it, which is odd.

The correlation between the Western US deluge last year and the water vapor injection from the Tongan eruption is almost impossible to ignore