Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

What a depressing read today.

Better have a good severe weather season to make up for this crap.

Too bad I didn’t live in Kansas still. Lol.

Im still not ok because I feel like that may have been our last shot here and we totally blew it. Just pathetic really. I mean why should I expect anything in March when we can't even get cold air in February

[bubba hotep]

 https://x.com/newson6wxguy/status/1757140497468989735

[Cpv17]

Unfortunately this summer is going to SUCK with La Nina coming back, also looks like yet another busy hurricane season with higher odds of seeing development closer to home this upcoming season ( gulf of mexico/ caribbean etc)

I don’t think this summer is going to suck. However, the 2025 summer will most likely.

[Itryatgolf]

What a depressing read today.

Better have a good severe weather season to make up for this crap.

Too bad I didn’t live in Kansas still. Lol.

Im still not ok because I feel like that may have been our last shot here and we totally blew it. Just pathetic really. I mean why should I expect anything in March when we can't even get cold air in February

I think it's the west to east flow from the Pacific jet and when it gets cold, it moves out quickly. I think we have one more shot beginning of March because of the SSW event that recently started. Can't believe January was that below average lol. We got lucky and fortunate

[Stratton23]

I think their was talk or confirmation of another SSW that just began a few days ago, effects wouldn’t be felt until early march, but even the. i seriously doubt we will see anything, but it is interesting because two SSWE’s during the winter is incredibly and i mean INCREDIBLY rare, so who knows

[Ptarmigan]

Recycled from 2010-2011, Bones has made his declaration about winter 2023-2024:

http://wxman57.com/images/WinterDead.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/WinterDead.JPG

It is not over till it is over.

[Ptarmigan]

Unfortunately this summer is going to SUCK with La Nina coming back, also looks like yet another busy hurricane season with higher odds of seeing development closer to home this upcoming season ( gulf of mexico/ caribbean etc)

Not liking it. Hopefully, that will not be the case.

Anyone having trouble accessing the WX Infinity forum? I keep getting security issues.

[Brent]

Unfortunately this summer is going to SUCK with La Nina coming back, also looks like yet another busy hurricane season with higher odds of seeing development closer to home this upcoming season ( gulf of mexico/ caribbean etc)

Not liking it. Hopefully, that will not be the case.

Yeah I've already heard tons of hype about the hurricane season. Everyone seems to think it's gonna be extremely busy

Hopefully at least the summer is more tolerable regardless

[Ntxw]

There are mixed bags about summer. But one thing is not on our side, the PDO. It has been staunchly negative, and it has a correlation to some very hot years. Probably more correlation than maybe ENSO itself in the summer.

[DukeMu]

Wow the warm air destroyed us here

I don't want to talk about this absolutely pathetic embarrassing joke of a winter ever again. It's too late to make up for it now. Dont care what the rest of it does we wasted our chances because of this stupid endless Pacific air

Bring on La Nina. It can't possibly get any worse

Typical El Nino winter, Brent. We had 5 freezes here in Houston last month, which is a little colder than normal. Lots and lots of rain (11") over the past 6 weeks. Yep, that's El Nino. We managed to reach 80 degrees in much of Houston yesterday afternoon (IAH only 78). Felt great until that cold air reached us late in the afternoon.

GFS keeps flip-flopping on the strength of Saturday's front. Euro and Canadian has a moderate cold front, similar to the 06Z GFS. Possibly 30s in SE TX Monday, then back up to close to 80 by mid week. Hopefully, that's it for winter. On to the warmth of spring!

12.10 inches of rain for the year in CLL. We were chilly from Christmas to Jan 25, but normal for Feb. Maybe a frost tonight and Sunday. That's about it.

The weeds in the back are out of control.

[DukeMu]

The strange dynamic is that almost the entire Northern Hemisphere is substantially above normal the past 2 months, this warmer base state has thrown a wrinkle into this winter. It should be more below normal that what has occurred across southern US during a typical El Nino.

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/19/tonga-volcano-eruption-ozone-depletion/

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/cdas-all/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_60day_back/1707717600-4lvmvkK6Z70.png

A decent theory I've heard is the Tongan underwater volcanic eruption that occurred in Jan 2022 has substantially altered atmospheric dynamics.

Yeah, the research that I've looked into seems to back this up. However, there isn't much talk about it, which is odd.

The ocean-atmosphere couplet was warming well before that. It is difficult to amount how much the Tongan water vapor increased this over it, though I'm sure it did since WV is a greenhouse gas.

Majo ENSOr flip in Mid June. We were fried to a crackly crunch after that, w/112°F every friggin' day. It had been a pleasant Spring and early Summer. We need a break on A/C bills this Spring and Summer.

[DukeMu]

It snowed pretty hard for a couple of hours. Some dry air that moved in shut down any accumulations as it cut off numerous hours of snow that we were supposed to get. However, we did end up with 1.12” of rain which I can’t complain about after seeing none all summer.

Yeah I think that's what hurt us too I never saw the super heavy precip we needed to snow... Same thing kind of happened last year I guess

I mean I know there was always a bad analog for this El Nino but I just never imagined endless Pacific air

The extreme warm anomalies across the north 1/2 of North America was the main culprit. Just not enough cold air to tap into, which was somewhat unexpected looking at historical analogs. Plenty of moisture and systems moving across southern states, just not cold enough in source region!

The brown winter in the northern plains (no snow for X-mas in Minneapolis and Rapid City, SD) meant that any sustained cold in Feb. in SETX was doomed.

[DukeMu]

The High Plains of Texas were the center of the action yesterday…quite the Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm!

 https://x.com/nwslubbock/status/1756823482946797997

Gold for the panhandle and I-44.

[DukeMu]

Unfortunately this summer is going to SUCK with La Nina coming back, also looks like yet another busy hurricane season with higher odds of seeing development closer to home this upcoming season ( gulf of mexico/ caribbean etc)

Not liking it. Hopefully, that will not be the case.

Yeah I've already heard tons of hype about the hurricane season. Everyone seems to think it's gonna be extremely busy

Hopefully at least the summer is more tolerable regardless

Potentially limited shear. Expecting a Gulf Cat 4 or 5 during the 'cane season.

[opticsguy]

Talked to my brother in the UP of Michigan yesterday. No ice on Lake Superior or even some of the smaller lakes. Mud everywhere. Just like it was back in the 1930s.

[gpsnowman]

Talked to my brother in the UP of Michigan yesterday. No ice on Lake Superior or even some of the smaller lakes. Mud everywhere. Just like it was back in the 1930s.

Yeah and we think it is bad here. I read parts of the Texas Panhandle have more snow than Minneapolis this season. It's nice to see the northeast cash in today. New York and Boston looking good.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Such a heavy frost this morning that it almost looked like a snow dusting.

[orangeblood]

Just not meant to be...MJO avoiding our Goldilocks Prime Winter phases (8-1-2) like the plague!!

Pretty pathetic winter considering all of the hype surrounding it - long range pro mets probably need to consider another profession, it's impossible to stay consistently decent at your job! Although, if you're into gambling and like to blog strictly for entertainment purposes, it may still be a good fit. Just a brutal profession!!

[Brent]

Just not meant to be...MJO avoiding our Goldilocks Prime Winter phases (8-1-2) like the plague!!

Pretty pathetic winter considering all of the hype surrounding it - long range pro mets probably need to consider another profession, it's impossible to stay consistently decent at your job! Although, if you're into gambling and like to blog strictly for entertainment purposes, it may still be a good fit. Just a brutal profession!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_BC.png

Yeah clearly we have a lot of learn with winter forecasting because I'm still just in disbelief how bad it's been and yeah it's worse in other places but like really

I really don't think it would bother me so much if last winter hadn't also been a disaster. Like when will it end

[Wthrfan]

Recycled from 2010-2011, Bones has made his declaration about winter 2023-2024:

http://wxman57.com/images/WinterDead.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/WinterDead.JPG

It is not over till it is over.

Exactly..."Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!"