Texas Winter 2023-2024

[CaptinCrunch]

There are mixed bags about summer. But one thing is not on our side, the PDO. It has been staunchly negative, and it has a correlation to some very hot years. Probably more correlation than maybe ENSO itself in the summer.

If the PDO is strongly negative heading into Summer, then expect a repeat of last Summer or worse, especially with a La Nina.

[Anti-freeze]

LOL at all the wailing and gnashing of teeth at learning that here in DFW we're going to get another month of near normals, great weather with highs of 60's and 70's interspersed with some 50's. Will be pretty awesome if that forecast holds.

[orangeblood]

Just not meant to be...MJO avoiding our Goldilocks Prime Winter phases (8-1-2) like the plague!!

Pretty pathetic winter considering all of the hype surrounding it - long range pro mets probably need to consider another profession, it's impossible to stay consistently decent at your job! Although, if you're into gambling and like to blog strictly for entertainment purposes, it may still be a good fit. Just a brutal profession!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_BC.png

Yeah clearly we have a lot of learn with winter forecasting because I'm still just in disbelief how bad it's been and yeah it's worse in other places but like really

I really don't think it would bother me so much if last winter hadn't also been a disaster. Like when will it end

IMHO long range forecasting is impossible to learn in a consistently accurate manner, way too many unknown variables that can/usually do have major implications to long range forecasts. Heck, just look at the Boston forecast from yesterday to today - forecast world can't even get a 24 hr significant impact forecast pinned down much less a 3 month forecast. Weather is an aspect of our existence we just have to adapt to, isn't much we can do as a species to consistently and accurately predict or influence in any substantial magnitude!

[orangeblood]

Pretty clear where all the cold air is parked last 1/2 of February...there maybe one last hail mary as it moves back into NA to start March.

[Brent]

Just not meant to be...MJO avoiding our Goldilocks Prime Winter phases (8-1-2) like the plague!!

Pretty pathetic winter considering all of the hype surrounding it - long range pro mets probably need to consider another profession, it's impossible to stay consistently decent at your job! Although, if you're into gambling and like to blog strictly for entertainment purposes, it may still be a good fit. Just a brutal profession!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_BC.png

Yeah clearly we have a lot of learn with winter forecasting because I'm still just in disbelief how bad it's been and yeah it's worse in other places but like really

I really don't think it would bother me so much if last winter hadn't also been a disaster. Like when will it end

IMHO long range forecasting is impossible to learn in a consistently accurate manner, way too many unknown variables that can/usually do have major implications to long range forecasts. Heck, just look at the Boston forecast from yesterday to today - forecast world can't even get a 24 hr significant impact forecast pinned down much less a 3 month forecast. Weather is an aspect of our existence we just have to adapt to, isn't much we can do as a species to consistently and accurately predict or influence in any substantial magnitude!

I have a friend in upstate NY who had a winter storm warning 2 days ago and didn't even get a flake apparently its everywhere

And it shifted south

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There are mixed bags about summer. But one thing is not on our side, the PDO. It has been staunchly negative, and it has a correlation to some very hot years. Probably more correlation than maybe ENSO itself in the summer.

If the PDO is strongly negative heading into Summer, then expect a repeat of last Summer or worse, especially with a La Nina.

I did some of my own analysis on the worst summer in Texas history (last year) and i think much of it has to due with a weak Bermuda high in the ATL. Basically, there was no dominating high in the ATL. Typically during an El nino, there is a high that forms in the Caribbean and it battles with the high in Bermuda. The two of them cant be very strong at the same time. Last year, the high in the Caribbean was dominating and it 'leaned' into the Gulf and Texas all summer. Basically parked itself over that region.

Other El nino years where the ATL/Bermuda high was weak had very hot summers for Texas as well.

[orangeblood]

Yeah clearly we have a lot of learn with winter forecasting because I'm still just in disbelief how bad it's been and yeah it's worse in other places but like really

I really don't think it would bother me so much if last winter hadn't also been a disaster. Like when will it end

IMHO long range forecasting is impossible to learn in a consistently accurate manner, way too many unknown variables that can/usually do have major implications to long range forecasts. Heck, just look at the Boston forecast from yesterday to today - forecast world can't even get a 24 hr significant impact forecast pinned down much less a 3 month forecast. Weather is an aspect of our existence we just have to adapt to, isn't much we can do as a species to consistently and accurately predict or influence in any substantial magnitude!

I have a friend in upstate NY who had a winter storm warning 2 days ago and didn't even get a flake apparently its everywhere

And it shifted south

Pretty wild, a huge area went from 6-12 inches to not even a flake within less than a 24 hour forecast...with cancellation of schools prematurely etc. It continues to be a Major Problem in the Weather Model world even in the year 2024. Wouldn't expect it to improve anytime soon either. Most of the Public pays close attention to forecasts that are of high impact events, sunny and 70 F they don't pay close attention to...unfortunately, when you miss on high impact events - lots of trust is lost from the Public!!!

[txtwister78]

Just a little too much doom and gloom. For a minute I thought we had arrived at next winter already after reading some of these post, because I swore some had already thrown in the towel and made their "see ya next winter" post several days ago.

In all seriousness, it was fairly clear a week or so on here (at least from my vantage point) that we had but a brief window left from the 17th-21st at one final shot of real winter relative to the averages for this time of year across Texas. The warning signs were clearly there beyond that period for an early spring. The teleconnections were the first clue (EPO trending positive after the 20th). The second clue was the MJO (stuck in warm phases and no real amplification thereafter going into null phase as opposed to phases 8, 1 and 2).

I just think it's important for those of us who live in the south (Texas especially) to remember one thing when it comes to getting your hopes up every year with respect to snow and that is.... we live in Texas folks? Lol. So much has to come together down here to get winter precip (let alone snow) in any given year. Blaming meteorologist for sticking their necks out when making these long-range forecast that are so fraught with uncertainty to begin with seems like a contradiction to me when you start off with that simple but incredibly important fact alone (our location location location). If it were that easy all of us would do it. No one wants to be wrong I would imagine, especially when your profession is uniquely tied to your personal/professional financial stability (i.e. private companies). With all that being said, I appreciate the winters that did hit over the years as opposed to those that didn't simply for the fact that I do realize where I live and how rare those occurrences are. That's perhaps a different way of looking at it in a more positive light. Rant over.

On to Spring after this weekend and what hopefully will be an active pattern that delivers rainfall for much of the region.

[Brent]

Just a little too much doom and gloom. For a minute I thought we had arrived at next winter already after reading some of these post, because I swore some had already thrown in the towel and made their "see ya next winter" post several days ago.

In all seriousness, it was fairly clear a week or so on here (at least from my vantage point) that we had but a brief window left from the 17th-21st at one final shot of real winter relative to the averages for this time of year across Texas. The warning signs were clearly there beyond that period for an early spring. The teleconnections were the first clue (EPO trending positive after the 20th). The second clue was the MJO (stuck in warm phases and no real amplification thereafter going into null phase as opposed to phases 8, 1 and 2).

I just think it's important for those of us who live in the south (Texas especially) to remember one thing when it comes to getting your hopes up every year with respect to snow and that is.... we live in Texas folks? Lol. So much has to come together down here to get winter precip (let alone snow) in any given year. Blaming meteorologist for sticking their necks out when making these long-range forecast that are so fraught with uncertainty to begin with seems like a contradiction to me when you start off with that simple but incredibly important fact alone (our location location location). If it were that easy all of us would do it. No one wants to be wrong I would imagine, especially when your profession is uniquely tied to your personal/professional financial stability (i.e. private companies). With all that being said, I appreciate the winters that did hit over the years as opposed to those that didn't simply for the fact that I do realize where I live and how rare those occurrences are. That's perhaps a different way of looking at it in a more positive light. Rant over.

On to Spring after this weekend and what hopefully will be an active pattern that delivers rainfall for much of the region.

Well I'm sorry if I have doom and gloom I know it could be worse but it's more annoying I think because last winter sucked too and I have a bad feeling that was our last shot. No confidence about cold air that matters in March

[South Texas Storms]

Just a little too much doom and gloom. For a minute I thought we had arrived at next winter already after reading some of these post, because I swore some had already thrown in the towel and made their "see ya next winter" post several days ago.

In all seriousness, it was fairly clear a week or so on here (at least from my vantage point) that we had but a brief window left from the 17th-21st at one final shot of real winter relative to the averages for this time of year across Texas. The warning signs were clearly there beyond that period for an early spring. The teleconnections were the first clue (EPO trending positive after the 20th). The second clue was the MJO (stuck in warm phases and no real amplification thereafter going into null phase as opposed to phases 8, 1 and 2).

I just think it's important for those of us who live in the south (Texas especially) to remember one thing when it comes to getting your hopes up every year with respect to snow and that is.... we live in Texas folks? Lol. So much has to come together down here to get winter precip (let alone snow) in any given year. Blaming meteorologist for sticking their necks out when making these long-range forecast that are so fraught with uncertainty to begin with seems like a contradiction to me when you start off with that simple but incredibly important fact alone (our location location location). If it were that easy all of us would do it. No one wants to be wrong I would imagine, especially when your profession is uniquely tied to your personal/professional financial stability (i.e. private companies). With all that being said, I appreciate the winters that did hit over the years as opposed to those that didn't simply for the fact that I do realize where I live and how rare those occurrences are. That's perhaps a different way of looking at it in a more positive light. Rant over.

On to Spring after this weekend and what hopefully will be an active pattern that delivers rainfall for much of the region.

Well said! A few shifts a month I work on long-range forecasts for my company for various parts of the world. Long-range forecasting is of course a low confidence forecast, and I think our clients know not to expect every product we put out to verify. The best we can do is use the tools and clues we have and go from there. It's a humbling job, that's for sure, but I really enjoy it and learn a lot!

[Texas Snowman]

Saw this post today from WINK TV met Matt Devitt in southwest Florida (he was once a TV met here at KTEN in the Denison/Sherman area).

Can you imagine how many pages we would be at in the “Texas Winter 1888-89” thread had Storm2k and today’s technology had existed back then? Or the back-and-forth that would be going on?

 https://x.com/mattdevittwx/status/1757455153794322857

[Wthrfan]

I am not a meterologist, but having lived in the South Central US my whole life, I can objectively state the winters are generally warmer and shorter. I recall growing up in Dallas there was even snow in November a few times. How much of this is attributable to climate change vs. normal weather fluctuations...?

[jasons2k]

It snowed pretty hard for a couple of hours. Some dry air that moved in shut down any accumulations as it cut off numerous hours of snow that we were supposed to get. However, we did end up with 1.12” of rain which I can’t complain about after seeing none all summer.

Yeah I think that's what hurt us too I never saw the super heavy precip we needed to snow... Same thing kind of happened last year I guess

I mean I know there was always a bad analog for this El Nino but I just never imagined endless Pacific air

The extreme warm anomalies across the north 1/2 of North America was the main culprit. Just not enough cold air to tap into, which was somewhat unexpected looking at historical analogs. Plenty of moisture and systems moving across southern states, just not cold enough in source region!

Indeed. I think it was pointed out a few times, regardless of what the long range models show, that you need some cold air in place in the source regions first.

Fundamentals, folks. Models are helpful but don’t forget the fundamentals.

[Portastorm]

It is wxman57's world, friends. We're just living in it.

[Stratton23]

This is just a gut feeling, but given how odd this winter has been, I wouldnt be very surprised to see a late season cold snap in early march, just a feeling, could easily be wrong though

[Stratton23]

Interesting to see NOAA’s 3-4 week outlook, or february 24- march 8-th, favors below normal temperatures across most of the southern us / gulf coast states, I am curious to know what they see that isn’t showing in guidance, I will say though their 3-4 week discussion post is pretty interesting if you want to read that

[Itryatgolf]

It's interesting that the mjo can't refire in phases 2-3, especially since convection is still around the dateline. Also, if this SSW don't pan out that just started, then I will throw in the towel. My friend used to say " sometimes your the bug and sometimes your the windshield" lol

[Lagreeneyes03]

Pretty clear where all the cold air is parked last 1/2 of February...there maybe one last hail mary as it moves back into NA to start March.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_7day/1707804000/1708862400-CETfeKb4DP0.png

Poor Florida.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I am not a meterologist, but having lived in the South Central US my whole life, I can objectively state the winters are generally warmer and shorter. I recall growing up in Dallas there was even snow in November a few times. How much of this is attributable to climate change vs. normal weather fluctuations...?

I also feel it's staying hotter, longer. September has been extremely hot in the past 10 years vs 25 years ago when I was little. Octobers seem to be warmer, and we've had more warm Halloween seasons recently than "fall like" weather.

[Brent]

I am not a meterologist, but having lived in the South Central US my whole life, I can objectively state the winters are generally warmer and shorter. I recall growing up in Dallas there was even snow in November a few times. How much of this is attributable to climate change vs. normal weather fluctuations...?

I also feel it's staying hotter, longer. September has been extremely hot in the past 10 years vs 25 years ago when I was little. Octobers seem to be warmer, and we've had more warm Halloween seasons recently than "fall like" weather.

I definitely agree on this as far as snow goes in the spring well it snowed in May here in 2013 first time ever so not that long ago. I also remember wearing my hoodie in May since I've been here in 2021 I think it's more the seasons are delayed. I was in Alabama Memorial Day weekend last year and I mean it was unheard of perfect weather. Usually by then it's always so hot and oppressive

As I also recall last summer started slow at least up here then we sure paid for it come August and September even early October I remember