2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

This really belongs in the future 2024 models thread, but since it isn’t really tropical I’m not going to worry about it. I still thought it to be interesting enough to post about it with nothing else going on.

The 12Z UKMET is further S than other models and the strongest by far with the upcoming early Feb extratropical storm. It is so strong that the text output classifies it as a tropical cyclone out in the Gulf despite it having no real tropical characteristics. Dewpoints are too low, SSTs are only in the low to mid 70s, and it is under a strong upper low.

But maps do suggest a slight low level warm/wet core vs its surroundings:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

On Sun evening the run has it max out with sustained winds at 59 knots/68 mph along with a SLP way down at 978 mb/28.85”. It looks to me like this UKMET run is likely on crack:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.01.2024

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 26.9N 88.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.02.2024 96 26.9N 88.1W 993 44
0000UTC 05.02.2024 108 28.3N 84.7W 978 59
1200UTC 05.02.2024 120 29.1N 82.6W 981 44
0000UTC 06.02.2024 132 28.6N 81.5W 990 40
1200UTC 06.02.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

[cycloneye]

Hi Larry. Made your post as the first one of the 2024 global models thread.

[ChrisH-UK]

The models are showing something happening in the gulf and possibly off the coast of Florida. Now it looks a bit of a mess but some of the models could be worry some like the GEM having a strong 50 knot winds pushing water south along the coast of Florida with the potential of storm surge and you have the warm waters of the Gulf Stream as well for it to feed off.

GFS Run



GEM Run

[DioBrando]

The models are showing something happening in the gulf and possibly off the coast of Florida. Now it looks a bit of a mess but some of the models could be worry some like the GEM having a strong 50 knot winds pushing water south along the coast of Florida with the potential of storm surge and you have the warm waters of the Gulf Stream as well for it to feed off.

GFS Run

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1303/8BnZdd.gif [/url]

GEM Run

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8677/Av3yzW.gif [/url]

possible february alberto?
zamn

[cycloneye]

Looks like it will not be a hybrid subtropical one.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1753088573887185155

[LarryWx]

After having it as a “tropical cyclone” in the text output of yesterday’s 12Z UKMET, today’s 0Z and 12Z dropped that designation fwiw. Yesterday’s 12Z got it down to an unbelievable 978 mb in the E GOM!

[DioBrando]

After having it as a “tropical cyclone” in the text output of yesterday’s 12Z UKMET, today’s 0Z and 12Z dropped that designation fwiw. Yesterday’s 12Z got it down to an unbelievable 978 mb in the E GOM!

Just kek at the state of some of the models

[tolakram]

ICON Open Source Release

A new chapter was opened when ICON was released as open source code in January 2024. We are happy to be able to celebrate this and are grateful for the enormous amount of work that many colleagues have put in.


https://www.icon-model.org/

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1753300169804698069

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It looks that a subtropical or tropical cyclone may will form over the South Atlantic by the end of the week.

[wxman57]

Given the pattern across the Gulf over the winter (plenty of west Gulf lows), I'm wondering if we might get another storm over the next month similar to the "Storm of the Century" back in March 12-13, 1993. Something to watch for late February into mid-March. I remember seeing the model forecasts back then (they only went out 72 hrs) and marveling at the predicted strength of the storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/KacperWx/status/1757454237938671840

[cycloneye]

Yes, is loooooong range on day 16 from GFS. On next runs will not be there.

[JetFuel_SE]

00z GFS was doing the good stuff with what looks like a borderline hurricane out there in the middle of the Atlantic.

[DioBrando]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736018608366551111/1208725365632274453/gfs_2024-02-18-00Z_384_50_258_0_350_Simulated_Satellite_Satellite.png?ex=65e45438&is=65d1df38&hm=9fff117af2001fed5ccee42279c7a9604a29f15147992996dc77f5ce84d639ee&
00z GFS was doing the good stuff with what looks like a borderline hurricane out there in the middle of the Atlantic.

fr, alberto in February?

[JetFuel_SE]

Once again, the GFS seems to want a hurricane, this time in March.

[DioBrando]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1006712191522721812/1209777329727995924/gfs_2024-02-21-00Z_348_50_258_0_350_Simulated_Satellite_Satellite.png?ex=65e827ef&is=65d5b2ef&hm=caa3e212a3ab5675a82b1026e50ec3922083ebc31bb8222d137bf106a6086fd0&

Once again, the GFS seems to want a hurricane, this time in March.

imagine we get alberto in march lol

[Deshaunrob17]

When the GFS has a random low over the NE Caribbean in March….

[chaser1]

When the GFS has a random low over the NE Caribbean in March….

Oh well, THAT was one run and done. Happy Hour decided it'll have no part of that plot line

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1763230351105646686




https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... w-ML-model

[cycloneye]

More improvements to the ECMWF. The ALFS goes to 360 hours.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1763344186571632865




 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763358239125623014