2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1758499578993648009

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1758507132679254219

Luis, why do you think 2004 is a good analog? El Nino was present during the 2004 season. Also, there is no comparison to the Atlantic SST regime in 2004 vs. today. I wouldn't mind the season starting on July 31, as it did in 2004.

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1758499578993648009

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1758507132679254219

Luis, why do you think 2004 is a good analog? El Nino was present during the 2004 season. Also, there is no comparison to the Atlantic SST regime in 2004 vs. today. I wouldn't mind the season starting on July 31, as it did in 2004.

I didn't say 2004. It was Andy and Alex in their twits.

[tolakram]

It was Andy and Alex in their twits.

No comment.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1758499578993648009

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1758507132679254219

Luis, why do you think 2004 is a good analog? El Nino was present during the 2004 season. Also, there is no comparison to the Atlantic SST regime in 2004 vs. today. I wouldn't mind the season starting on July 31, as it did in 2004.

I didn't say 2004. It was Andy and Alex in their twits.

I don't know, WXMAN I'd probably bet against your hope of a "start of (Atlantic) season" not happening until July 31. But, thats for the same reason that I agree with you that 2004 doesn't seem to jive with 2024 as an analogue. Didn't the 2004 El Nino barely achieve that designation until nearly September? Even then there typically is some degree of delayed impact to the Atlantic basin (which clearly must have been too weak - too late of a Nino event to impact Aug or Sept). Conversely, 2024 has a waning El Nino. With early season development often a hallmark of El Nino years, coupled with the recent Era "quick trigger" to designate a boiling pot of instant mashed potatoes as a named tropical (or sub) storm , and I'd guess we could see an April or May named storm or two.

[JetFuel_SE]

Luis, why do you think 2004 is a good analog? El Nino was present during the 2004 season. Also, there is no comparison to the Atlantic SST regime in 2004 vs. today. I wouldn't mind the season starting on July 31, as it did in 2004.

I didn't say 2004. It was Andy and Alex in their twits.

I don't know, WXMAN I'd probably bet against your hope of a "start of (Atlantic) season" not happening until July 31. But, thats for the same reason that I agree with you that 2004 doesn't seem to jive with 2024 as an analogue. Didn't the 2004 El Nino barely achieve that designation until nearly September? Even then there typically is some degree of delayed impact to the Atlantic basin (which clearly must have been too weak - too late of a Nino event to impact Aug or Sept). Conversely, 2024 has a waning El Nino. With early season development often a hallmark of El Nino years, coupled with the recent Era "quick trigger" to designate a boiling pot of instant mashed potatoes as a named tropical (or sub) storm , and I'd guess we could see an April or May named storm or two.

2004 was also a Modoki El Niño, which generally doesn't have the same effects on the Atlantic as a normal one.

[chaser1]

I didn't say 2004. It was Andy and Alex in their twits.

I don't know, WXMAN I'd probably bet against your hope of a "start of (Atlantic) season" not happening until July 31. But, thats for the same reason that I agree with you that 2004 doesn't seem to jive with 2024 as an analogue. Didn't the 2004 El Nino barely achieve that designation until nearly September? Even then there typically is some degree of delayed impact to the Atlantic basin (which clearly must have been too weak - too late of a Nino event to impact Aug or Sept). Conversely, 2024 has a waning El Nino. With early season development often a hallmark of El Nino years, coupled with the recent Era "quick trigger" to designate a boiling pot of instant mashed potatoes as a named tropical (or sub) storm , and I'd guess we could see an April or May named storm or two.

2004 was also a Modoki El Niño, which generally doesn't have the same effects on the Atlantic as a normal one.

True; Good point

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1759010691036410242

[hurricanetrack]

I know everyone here is on top of it but today, I dug deep into the "La Nina is coming" topic and took a look back at past busy seasons and where were during this time during those years.

It is striking!!!

Enjoy!
[youtube]https://youtu.be/dERklYcZJzE[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

I know everyone here is on top of it but today, I dug deep into the "La Nina is coming" topic and took a look back at past busy seasons and where were during this time during those years.

It is striking!!!

Enjoy!
https://youtu.be/dERklYcZJzE

Thanks Mark for making the video. You always explain in detail, and with plenty of clarity, about all the factors.What I say after seeing the video is to get ready on the preparations those who live in the tropics, including our Caribbean friends in the islands. (Me is in that group)

[ChrisH-UK]

Last year was the hottest that the Atlantic has ever been by a large margin. Today it is the same temperature that the Atlantic was last year on the date April 18th, 2 months away.

[weeniepatrol]

Good news is it appears MDR trades are strengthening, so we've likely hit a "top" in anomalous warmth.

[cycloneye]

Speaking of the trade winds, +NAO has to mantain to cool a bit the waters.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1759684800644833623

[zzzh]

Trades are very strong in east subtropical Atlantic. Canary Current will suffer more than the MDR. Though it's unlikely to wipe out widespread +2C anomalies that's been there for 10 months with only 2-3 weeks of enhanced trades

[cycloneye]

Umm, Cool Neutral may be the best thing to get a very active season, instead of a full blown La Niña.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1759762392886509707

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Speaking of the trade winds, +NAO has to mantain to cool a bit the waters.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1759684800644833623

When you have 3C anoms extending nearly 100m in depth, you really need a prolonged spell of brisk trades in order to provide any sort of mitigating effect. Def think we'll see things level off within the next week or so though due to the +NAO spell but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up like the last one we saw in late Jan/early Feb where it didn't do much.

[weeniepatrol]

Trades are very strong in east subtropical Atlantic. Canary Current will suffer more than the MDR. Though it's unlikely to wipe out widespread +2C anomalies that's been there for 10 months with only 2-3 weeks of enhanced trades

Absolutely not wipe out; just slightly to moderately attenuate.

[SFLcane]

I know everyone here is on top of it but today, I dug deep into the "La Nina is coming" topic and took a look back at past busy seasons and where were during this time during those years.

It is striking!!!

Enjoy!
https://youtu.be/dERklYcZJzE

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1759960696127975637

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/accuweather/status/1760042886010413505

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/accuweather/status/1760042886010413505

"Serious and growing concern for super-charged hurricane season in 2024"
But without irony, I'm really torn between calling them sensationalists or else agreeing with them. What great times we live in...