2024 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

Those cold subsurface waters are going up fast. There are readings of -2 to -3 C.

[cycloneye]

As I splited from the big ENSO thread, the 2024 posts to make the new annual ENSO thread, those members who may want to look back at the other thread that has been up since January 1 2007 to 2023, can go to the first post of this thread and click the link posted.

[cycloneye]

Well, after that CPC statement of ENSO with el Niño fading and La NIña comming by Summer, the SOI doesn't care at this point, as it keeps dropping more in negative and is the most lower it has been so far this year.

https://i.imgur.com/EXSPCNU.jpeg

He replied about this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756016053002387655

I'd have to go look at January reanalysis products, but it's not unusual to have enhanced zonal wave propagation during strong El Ninos (especially when SSTA+ is centered more towards the equator or south of). That wave propagation was one of the main features that drove the atmospheric moisture river/pineapple express that impacted California recently. Just looking at the recent dips in February, you can see Tahiti had three successive low pressure systems that passed over/nearby starting the first week of February. This propagation of large-scale atmospheric waves from the tropics to the mid-latitudes play a significant role:

https://i.imgur.com/w5SJkFG.png

Meanwhile, Darwin has experienced anomalously high pressure since the start of February:
https://i.imgur.com/MHKqhQE.png

Obviously main causation is El Nino here (i.e., changes/continuation in atmospheric circulation patterns, resulting in anomalous pressure condition in the tropical Pacific region), but these are the more detailed intricacies that leads to an SOI decline. The specific atmospheric pressure patterns observed in Tahiti and Darwin, as well as their deviations from average (anomalies), contribute to the decline in the SOI. In this case, Tahiti's pressure is significantly lower than average (Tahiti << 0), while Darwin's pressure is notably higher than average (Darwin >> 0), resulting in a decline in the SOI.

As always spot on, and the SOI has stopped falling.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI has been mainly flat for the past 4 days.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has the MJO moving over the IO with good amplitude by mid March. A moderate IO WWB is in the forecast as well as enhanced trades near the dateline.
That's ateast a shift in the pressure balance between Darwin and Tahiti. Could see the SOI rise back close to neutral during March.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

La Niña with record OHC. Shaping up to be quite the year in ATL.

[cycloneye]

Great twitter thread.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1762093263517811161




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1762095916633186596




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1762096801677504800




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1762098994367340627




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1762099498711384382




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1762102773963702787

[cycloneye]

The weekly CPC update: Look at the blues.

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4= 1.2ºC
Niño 3.4= 1.5ºC
Niño 3= 1.4ºC
Niño 1+2= 0.7ºC





https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Gums]

Salute!

TBH, I like the discussion of ENSO and maybe a connection to the storm season.

Having seen seasons with both Nina and Nino here in the Gulf, seems this cycle there's more artic waves at play north of us than most times that can harpoon many tropic forecasts. We seem to be moving into spring soon and the jury is still out down here before our forecast.

I see a basic storm season for now.

Gums sends....

[cycloneye]

If you look at the archived thread of ENSO Updates from 2007 thru 2023, the discussions on the first pages in 2007 were almost identical as the ones so far this year.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 31&t=92137

[NotSparta]

If you look at the archived thread of ENSO Updates from 2007 thru 2023, the discussions on the first pages in 2007 were almost identical as the ones so far this year.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 31&t=92137

Impressive how fast El Nino died off that year. Somewhat more normal this year although with the cool pool we may see the end of El Nino a little earlier than most super Ninos

[cycloneye]

The El Niño demise is closer and closer.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1762495302072762453

[cycloneye]

More evidence of the demise.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1762858243251155093




 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1762860022625718764

[cycloneye]

El Niño is going fast.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1763172527000404300

[Kingarabian]

El Niño is going fast.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1763172527000404300

Because the strength of the SST anomalies, It will take a few more trade bursts (or a very prolonged one) to flip things over to neutral.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have found in past years that the way the Pacific is trending is almost as important as whether it officially hits "Nina" territory. 2005 was one of those not officially a La Nina but was trending in that direction. If the temps are consistently falling that can be just as big of a problem as if they actually arrive at La Nina

[weeniepatrol]

I have found in past years that the way the Pacific is trending is almost as important as whether it officially hits "Nina" territory. 2005 was one of those not officially a La Nina but was trending in that direction. If the temps are consistently falling that can be just as big of a problem as if they actually arrive at La Nina

2005 was a case where the ocean did not reach La Nina values until very late in the year, but atmospherically that year was very much La Nina like during the hurricane season, with consistently suppressed Pacific convection.

[Teban54]

I have found in past years that the way the Pacific is trending is almost as important as whether it officially hits "Nina" territory. 2005 was one of those not officially a La Nina but was trending in that direction. If the temps are consistently falling that can be just as big of a problem as if they actually arrive at La Nina

2005 was a case where the ocean did not reach La Nina values until very late in the year, but atmospherically that year was very much La Nina like during the hurricane season, with consistently suppressed Pacific convection.

Speaking of which, do we have any idea on how atmospheric coupling is currently expected to look like this year during the hurricane season?

[NotSparta]

I have found in past years that the way the Pacific is trending is almost as important as whether it officially hits "Nina" territory. 2005 was one of those not officially a La Nina but was trending in that direction. If the temps are consistently falling that can be just as big of a problem as if they actually arrive at La Nina

2005 was a case where the ocean did not reach La Nina values until very late in the year, but atmospherically that year was very much La Nina like during the hurricane season, with consistently suppressed Pacific convection.

Speaking of which, do we have any idea on how atmospheric coupling is currently expected to look like this year during the hurricane season?

La Nina like probably given the incoming event

[cycloneye]

CanSIPS has the latest drop yet to La Niña. Look at the dotted line.