Texas Spring 2024

[Iceresistance]

February PDO has come in at -1.33, January 2023 had -1.25 PDO

[Ntxw]

While going through summers using PDO and Atlantic data maps, in a La Nina or building one, you can have cool summers. One common theme such as 2007, 2021, the cooler summers is when the western North Pacific (near and east of Japan) is relatively cooler than the northern eastern North Pacific (South of Alaska and west of the west coast.) by June. Both can resemble -PDO but that relative seesaw is present. If the western part is very hot compared to the eastern part, then you have a hot, dry summer in Texas. Our summers seemingly have an inverse relationship with the Pacific Northwest. So the ridge placement of the NPO region is key.

I haven't found a direct correlation with NAO. The AMO when negative does have decadal tendencies to be wetter/cooler but it's been positive for decades.

[bubba hotep]

To bring up the summer convo again, I still want to research this, but I'm interested in the correlation of a +NAO/-NAO and how it affects the Texas summer. I know Ntx has told us many times about the -PDO, and not trying to discount that in any way, the guy knows waaaaay more than me about this, but I'm very interested in this teleconnection.
Currently skiing in Steamboat. just received 22" of snow in 2 days. Conditions are fantastic. When I get home and have a few hours of boredom, I will look into more.

For those who are interested in where I will look first, I mentioned in last years summer thread..... During a -NAO, the bermuda high was very very weak or non existent. Pairing that with a very strong high directly over the Caribbean region, it allowed this high to flex well into the GOM/Texas region for the majority of the summer. Typically, if the NAO was positive and the bermuda high was strong, the high over the Caribbean and the Bermuda high would merge from time to time and would provide Texas and the GOM with a bit of a break from these massive heat ridges. If this heat ridge is leaning into Texas and the southern plains, all convection is shut off. I initially got into this wormhole because I just did not understand how an El nino summer could be so terrible.

Anyways, thats my thinking. Feel free to counter this idea, post on the subject, etc. The more the better.

Several Climate models show above normal precipitation for Texas this summer, esp. July/August.

[Stratton23]

Yeah i dont buy that, its already hard enough to trust a model out come more than 4-5 days out, let alone a week, but several months out? Yeah i definitely dont buy it at all

[Ntxw]

Notable Ninas after El Nino. Summer warmth is focused over the E-US in particular midwest. There is a cold pool in West Texas and we're in the middle zone. Notice the budding ridge southwest of the Aleutians, that's Nina forcing and warmth off Japan, likely working with each other.

So the "hope" is the trough in West Texas can pump up rains. But as Stratton said, too long range.

[Brent]

The bugs are back. How lovely

[Anti-freeze]

Interesting storm that has blown up down by Hico.

Edit: And has gone severe, half dolla hail

[CaptinCrunch]

The bugs are back. How lovely

The lack of long freezes over the course of Winter didn't reduce the insect population by much, those damn mosquito hunters just swarm at dusk.

[cstrunk]

The bugs are back. How lovely

The lack of long freezes over the course of Winter didn't reduce the insect population by much, those damn mosquito hunters just swarm at dusk.

I was hoping the extreme cold we had in January for several days would have knocked more of a dent in the population... I was "attacked" by a ton of those things walking out the front door this morning.

Thunder did wake me up around 6 am. It was nice to listen to the light rain and thunder until it was time to get up. Only got 0.12" of rain though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Notable Ninas after El Nino. Summer warmth is focused over the E-US in particular midwest. There is a cold pool in West Texas and we're in the middle zone. Notice the budding ridge southwest of the Aleutians, that's Nina forcing and warmth off Japan, likely working with each other.

So the "hope" is the trough in West Texas can pump up rains. But as Stratton said, too long range.

https://i.imgur.com/UpTSOKe.png

https://i.imgur.com/nu9SuG1.png

Strong monsoon signal. I'll take it here in CO. Keep that death ridge away!

Unfortunately, it means the news agencies will be crying every day about the heat on the east coast.

Also, thats a favorable storm track for Texas hurricanes.

[Stratton23]

Just a gut feeling, but I have a feeling texas may get hit by a hurricane if not a powerful one this season, just a gut feeling, i could easily be wrong, I just think we have gotten so many lucky breaks, Laura, Delta etc. Luck may be running out this time

[funster]

Blobby storm is blobbing up near the TX/OK border. Probably won't get down to DFW though.

[Iceresistance]

Blobby storm is blobbing up near the TX/OK border. Probably won't get down to DFW though.

It used to go westward along an outflow boundary, it's neat to watch

But it's early March! Not Early June!

[Iceresistance]

I would watch next week, this is an impressive ensemble signal this far out for Texas.

March 13th

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUs0a.png

March 14th

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUs0f.png

[rwfromkansas]

At least I should get a little rain hopefully tonight/tomorrow. Need severe weather season to make up for this winter.

[Stratton23]

Ill pass on severe weather, but man i hope we could see a normal summer for once, “cooler” and more in the way of precipitation, but knowing us, that might come in the way of a tropical system

[Cpv17]

Ill pass on severe weather, but man i hope we could see a normal summer for once, “cooler” and more in the way of precipitation, but knowing us, that might come in the way of a tropical system

Send a lil severe stuff my way. Gets my adrenaline pumping!

[HockeyTx82]

Ill pass on severe weather, but man i hope we could see a normal summer for once, “cooler” and more in the way of precipitation, but knowing us, that might come in the way of a tropical system

Send a lil severe stuff my way. Gets my adrenaline pumping!

As a homeowner not a fan

[Brent]

Ill pass on severe weather, but man i hope we could see a normal summer for once, “cooler” and more in the way of precipitation, but knowing us, that might come in the way of a tropical system

Send a lil severe stuff my way. Gets my adrenaline pumping!

I'm good after the derecho last year. Almost 4 days with no power even in Alabama after hurricanes I don't remember any that bad

[ElectricStorm]

Entire eastern half of OK upgraded to marginal risk for storms early tomorrow morning.

Next couple days look pretty good for rain/storms here