Who here thinks Alberto will form in the spring?

[DioBrando]

I have a feeling Alberto might form before May given the fact the Atlantic is lava but I don't know tbh.

[DioBrando]

I also won't be surprised we start July at Francine or something

[wxman57]

Since spring ends the third week of June, there's a good chance.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I also won't be surprised we start July at Francine or something

I say a max of 3 storms before July. Thinking we see CAG and early MDR development in June but perhaps a May subtropical system is within the realm of possibility as well, although those are obviously harder to predict. Six TCs seems unrealistic to me.

[AnnularCane]

I think a May storm is certainly possible, not sure about sooner though.

[JetFuel_SE]

Since spring ends the third week of June, there's a good chance.

Idk what you're talking about, last time I checked, the spring months are March, April, and May.
June is a summer month.

[DioBrando]

Since spring ends the third week of June, there's a good chance.

Idk what you're talking about, last time I checked, the spring months are March, April, and May.
June is a summer month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_solstice

[DioBrando]

I think a May storm is certainly possible, not sure about sooner though.

The Atlantic Ocean is lava as we type

[DioBrando]

I also won't be surprised we start July at Francine or something

I say a max of 3 storms before July. Thinking we see CAG and early MDR development in June but perhaps a May subtropical system is within the realm of possibility as well, although those are obviously harder to predict. Six TCs seems unrealistic to me.

Debby came about in June 2012 before
I think we could see Ernesto in June

[DioBrando]

Since spring ends the third week of June, there's a good chance.

Do you reckon Alberto would come before June since the Atlantic is lava

[JetFuel_SE]

Since spring ends the third week of June, there's a good chance.

Idk what you're talking about, last time I checked, the spring months are March, April, and May.
June is a summer month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_solstice

I'm talking about meteorological spring and summer on a meteorology forum.
Like cmon..

[tolakram]

I think we'll see a May storm this year unless conditions really change from how it looks now. Regardless of SST's shear is really the wild card. With today's satellites and really warm temps can we find a quick spin up before a storm gets blown apart?

[TheAustinMan]

For those curious, the February sea surface temperature anomalies near the Canadian Maritimes are actually more correlated with the total pre-season Atlantic ACE in the satellite era than anywhere else in the Atlantic. Though, the overall correlation is not particularly strong anywhere. That is to say, the state of the Atlantic SSTs right now does not hold much bearing on pre-season activity.

Source: Me, using ERSSTv5 data and Python. Positive correlation coefficients mean higher SST anomalies tend to be associated with higher pre-season ACE totals.

[DioBrando]

For some reason I just think Alberto is destined to be a spring baby.

[al78]

Since spring ends the third week of June, there's a good chance.

Idk what you're talking about, last time I checked, the spring months are March, April, and May.
June is a summer month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_solstice

The meteorological spring runs from 1st March to 31st May.

[emeraldislenc]

may 18

[Wampadawg]

May 23!

[CFLHurricane]

I’ll guess May 22nd, Bob.

[ljmac75]

Tropical depression on May 31st, strengthening to a tropical storm on June 1st at 0z, leaving everyone to argue about whether or not it counts as a pre-season storm.

[wxman57]

Since spring ends the third week of June, there's a good chance.

Do you reckon Alberto would come before June since the Atlantic is lava

Water temperature is important, but it's not the most important factor for TC formation. Wind shear needs to be low and there needs to be a pre-existing disturbance for development to have a chance of occurring. Boiling the Atlantic with a high shear environment will not produce a hurricane.