
Texas Spring 2024
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
We had an official freeze with a low of 32 degrees this morning at NTRA and a heavy frost here in Denison. Glad I brought the tomatoes in!


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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2024
RDPS has a much more volatile environment than the NAM for central texas at hour 84.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Brent wrote:The 18z GFS said we should go back to the winter thread
I’m gonna be honest. I really don’t care much for cold in March and points on from there. I feel like cold should come November through February. By March I’m ready for some warmer weather once I get a taste of it. Just how I feel.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Tomorrow and Thursday are looking interesting

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUQfP.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUQfX.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUQfP.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUQfX.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Heading back to CO tomorrow morning. Looks like a major winter storm on tap for up here. Our watch has been issued for 11-28”. Looks to be a true “Albuquerque Low” which almost always produces heavy snow.
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Heading back to CO tomorrow morning. Looks like a major winter storm on tap for up here. Our watch has been issued for 11-28”. Looks to be a true “Albuquerque Low” which almost always produces heavy snow.
Looks like the front range should cash in with this one. We got a surprise 4" overnight in CB. The main show wasn't supposed to start until later today, so hopefully this is a sign that the storm will over produce for many.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:The 18z GFS said we should go back to the winter thread
I’m gonna be honest. I really don’t care much for cold in March and points on from there. I feel like cold should come November through February. By March I’m ready for some warmer weather once I get a taste of it. Just how I feel.
March farther north is a transition month. The warm stuff begins in April and May. Where I grew up in NC the summer highs are also 7-8°F cooler. May in CLL and SETX is far too humid. If it were drier it would be more tolerable. Then ironically in CLL it stops raining in May or June.
I never complain about cooler or cold temps in Texas.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
DallasAg wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:Heading back to CO tomorrow morning. Looks like a major winter storm on tap for up here. Our watch has been issued for 11-28”. Looks to be a true “Albuquerque Low” which almost always produces heavy snow.
Looks like the front range should cash in with this one. We got a surprise 4" overnight in CB. The main show wasn't supposed to start until later today, so hopefully this is a sign that the storm will over produce for many.
Fingers crossed.
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#neversummer
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
High ceiling tomorrow if storms can initiate along the dryline. Moisture might be just below where it needs to be but it'll be close. Really fine line between seeing potentially significant tornadoes or no storms at all. Since it's March, I'm a little skeptical on the cap breaking but it's certainly a possibility. Reminds me of 4/19 last year except a little farther east.
Models continue to show a better and better environment despite CAMs not convecting so far.
Models continue to show a better and better environment despite CAMs not convecting so far.
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Boomer Sooner!
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
ElectricStorm wrote:High ceiling tomorrow if storms can initiate along the dryline. Moisture might be just below where it needs to be but it'll be close. Really fine line between seeing potentially significant tornadoes or no storms at all. Since it's March, I'm a little skeptical on the cap breaking but it's certainly a possibility. Reminds me of 4/19 last year except a little farther east.
Models continue to show a better and better environment despite CAMs not convecting so far.
The inversion is the main concern here, HRRR has DPs in the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.
Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.
Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Edwards Limestone wrote:QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.
Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.
Where did you see that? 12z models look quite good for south central Texas. I'm thinking widespread 1-2 inch totals are likely across a large part of the state later this week through the weekend.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Edwards Limestone wrote:QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.
Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.
Got a boat stuck in some hydrilla on Canyon Lake last June. Expensive day!
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- Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
South Texas Storms wrote:Edwards Limestone wrote:QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.
Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.
Where did you see that? 12z models look quite good for south central Texas. I'm thinking widespread 1-2 inch totals are likely across a large part of the state later this week through the weekend.
I hope you're right.
I was just looking at the GFS ensembles, looks like highest totals are north and east of me at least.

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The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Edwards Limestone wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Edwards Limestone wrote:QPF already dropped quite a bit since yesterday for SC TX.
Scary to think about where we'd be without that freak January rain event.
Canyon Lake is still at near all time lows.
Where did you see that? 12z models look quite good for south central Texas. I'm thinking widespread 1-2 inch totals are likely across a large part of the state later this week through the weekend.
I hope you're right.
I was just looking at the GFS ensembles, looks like highest totals are north and east of me at least.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024031212/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png
Yes, the GFS has capitulated to the Euro and Canadian.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Iceresistance wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:High ceiling tomorrow if storms can initiate along the dryline. Moisture might be just below where it needs to be but it'll be close. Really fine line between seeing potentially significant tornadoes or no storms at all. Since it's March, I'm a little skeptical on the cap breaking but it's certainly a possibility. Reminds me of 4/19 last year except a little farther east.
Models continue to show a better and better environment despite CAMs not convecting so far.
The inversion is the main concern here, HRRR has DPs in the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow
I think if Td's can get slightly higher it'll be enough to break it but we'll see. 2% tornado area expanded west now
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Boomer Sooner!
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:The 18z GFS said we should go back to the winter thread
I’m gonna be honest. I really don’t care much for cold in March and points on from there. I feel like cold should come November through February. By March I’m ready for some warmer weather once I get a taste of it. Just how I feel.
Yeah I don't really disagree here... It's never the same in March anyway and especially after how bad this winter was I just want to move on tbh

On the other hand... If we could keep the below normal temps that would be good

I still don't see anything that cold either... No worse than the weekend was so far which I mean Saturday was chilly(wow one whole day

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Extreme fire weather risk for the TX panhandle today, critical for most of west TX:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
The 2 biggest fires had reached 89% and 94% containment this morning:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-wildfires-near-containment-extremely-critical-fire-weather-conditions-panhandle/
And...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-largest-ever-wildfire-smokehouse-creek-ignited-by-power-company-facilities-company-admits/
Xcel Energy, a Minneapolis-based company that powers homes across the eight states in the West and Midwest, said Thursday that its facilities played a role in the massive wildfires in the Texas Panhandle that have left at least two people dead, burned more than a million acres of land and killed thousands of animals.
(Including an estimated 10,000 cattle)
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
The 2 biggest fires had reached 89% and 94% containment this morning:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-wildfires-near-containment-extremely-critical-fire-weather-conditions-panhandle/
And...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-largest-ever-wildfire-smokehouse-creek-ignited-by-power-company-facilities-company-admits/
Xcel Energy, a Minneapolis-based company that powers homes across the eight states in the West and Midwest, said Thursday that its facilities played a role in the massive wildfires in the Texas Panhandle that have left at least two people dead, burned more than a million acres of land and killed thousands of animals.
(Including an estimated 10,000 cattle)
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Spring 2024
Not seeing it today for anything south of the Kansas border. Cap just looks a little too strong and too much dry air aloft. I'd probably say at least a 90% chance of nothing developing, although seeing a storm or two somewhere technically isn't impossible.
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