SIO: MEGAN - Remnants

[MarioProtVI]

Probably already a C2.

[Hurricane2022]

It looks like Megan is starting to accelerate towards landfall for the last time. Maybe it could reach land a little earlier than expected.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 7:22 am ACST [7:52 am AEST] on Sunday 17 March 2024

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Megan strengthening in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Alyangula (Groote Eylandt) in NT to Mornington Island in Qld, including Borroloola but not including Ngukurr or Mornington Island.

Watch Zone
Mornington Island in Qld as well as adjacent parts of the Carpentaria District inland to Robinson River in NT.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Megan at 6:30 am ACST [7:00 am AEST]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 14.5 degrees South 137.5 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres east southeast of Alyangula and 215 kilometres northeast of Borroloola.

[cycloneye]

FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 4:42 pm ACST [5:12 pm AEST] on Sunday 17 March 2024

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan beginning to impact the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Alyangula (Groote Eylandt) in NT to Mornington Island in Qld (not including Mornington Island), extending inland to Borroloola, McArthur River Mine, and Robinson River, but not including Ngukurr.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at 3:30 pm ACST [4:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South 137.1 degrees East, estimated to be 150 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula and 145 kilometres northeast of Borroloola.

Movement: south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan lies to the south-southeast of Groote Eylandt, and has been moving slowly southwest. It is expected to strengthen further before crossing the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Monday between Nathan River and the Northern Territory/Queensland border.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm not sure it's a good idea to upgrade Megan to a 95 kt Category 2. At the moment it looks more like a modest C1 or even a sheared TS with a CCC pattern. Let's see what the microwave images will reveal in a few hours.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1769354506339242392

[MarioProtVI]

I'm not sure it's a good idea to upgrade Megan to a 95 kt Category 2. At the moment it looks more like a modest C1 or even a sheared TS with a CCC pattern. Let's see what the microwave images will reveal in a few hours.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmVdbFXAp

A SAR pass revealed winds of ~120 kt, and accounting for bias that supported at most 95 kt. It is possible for such systems to exist, as Delta 2020 in its initial peak showed.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm not sure it's a good idea to upgrade Megan to a 95 kt Category 2. At the moment it looks more like a modest C1 or even a sheared TS with a CCC pattern. Let's see what the microwave images will reveal in a few hours.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmVdbFXAp

A SAR pass revealed winds of ~120 kt, and accounting for bias that supported at most 95 kt. It is possible for such systems to exist, as Delta 2020 in its initial peak showed.

Wow! Now this reminds me of the story of Cyclone Atu, which JTWC considered to be a C4 despite being a bit far from actually looking like it.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1769506203720118672

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1769528216606183634

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued at 10:15 am ACST [10:45 am AEST] on Monday 18 March 2024

Headline:
Megan impacting the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and expected to make landfall today

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Roper (NT) to Mornington Island in Qld (not including Mornington Island), extending inland to Borroloola, McArthur River Mine, and Robinson River, but not including Ngukurr.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Alyangula (Groote Eylandt) to Port Roper (NT).

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at 9:30 am ACST [10:00 am AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.7 degrees South 137.1 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 55 kilometres east northeast of Port McArthur.

Movement: slow moving.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan is moving slowly towards the south and is expected to cross the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast southeast of Port McArthur this afternoon.

Once over land, Megan will weaken slowly overnight into Tuesday and track west through the Northern Territory as a tropical low.

[MarioProtVI]

https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1769528216606183634

Apparently this was why they went and revised 18z and 00z to 100 kt. Eyeless major which I’m not really buying.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1769551541181034524

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1769554721000366554

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued at 7:14 pm ACST [7:44 pm AEST] on Monday 18 March 2024

Headline:
Megan is located inland of the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and will continue to cause an extended period of damaging winds to communities near the track overnight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Roper (NT) to Mornington Island in Qld (not including Mornington Island), extending inland to Borroloola, McArthur River Mine, and Robinson River, but not including Ngukurr.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at 6:30 pm ACST [7:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.1 degrees South 136.8 degrees East, estimated to be 60 kilometres east of Borroloola and 45 kilometres southeast of Port McArthur.

Movement: south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan made landfall at 3:30 pm ACST on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast southeast of Port McArthur. Megan will now move slowly to the southwest and gradually weaken overnight into Tuesday. It will then track west through the Northern Territory as a tropical low.

To 7:00 pm ACST Centre Island has reported wind gusts to 170 km/h (3:00 pm ACST) and Borroloola wind gusts to 81 km/h (4:06 pm ACST). See http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/observations/ntall.shtml for the latest observations.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued at 10:10 pm ACST [10:40 pm AEST] on Monday 18 March 2024

Headline:
Megan is located inland southeast of Borroloola and may cause a period of damaging winds to communities near the track.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Roper (NT) to Mornington Island in Qld (not including Mornington Island), extending inland to Borroloola, McArthur River Mine, and Robinson River, but not including Ngukurr.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Megan at 9:30 pm ACST [10:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South 136.8 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres east southeast of Borroloola and 50 kilometres south southeast of Port McArthur.

Movement: slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Megan made landfall at 3:30 pm ACST on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast southeast of Port McArthur. Megan has now weakened to category 2 and is continuing to move slowly to the southwest. It will weaken further on Tuesday morning, and then track west through the Northern Territory as a tropical low.

The highest wind gusts recorded were from Centre Island with wind gusts to 170 km/h (3:00 pm ACST) and Borroloola with wind gusts to 81 km/h (4:06 pm ACST). See http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/observations/ntall.shtml for the latest observations.

[DioBrando]

I'm not sure it's a good idea to upgrade Megan to a 95 kt Category 2. At the moment it looks more like a modest C1 or even a sheared TS with a CCC pattern. Let's see what the microwave images will reveal in a few hours.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmVdbFXAp

A SAR pass revealed winds of ~120 kt, and accounting for bias that supported at most 95 kt. It is possible for such systems to exist, as Delta 2020 in its initial peak showed.

Wow! Now this reminds me of the story of Cyclone Atu, which JTWC considered to be a C4 despite being a bit far from actually looking like it.

humberto says hello

[cycloneye]

This will be the last warning issued.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued at 7:23 am ACST on Tuesday 19 March 2024

Headline:
Megan now downgraded to a tropical low as it tracks inland of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Bing Bong to the NT/Qld Border, extending inland to Borroloola, McArthur River Mine, and Robinson River.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan at 6:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South 136.5 degrees East, estimated to be 75 kilometres south southeast of Borroloola and 55 kilometres west northwest of Robinson River.

Movement: south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Megan has now been downgraded to a tropical low inland of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, south of Borroloola. Ex-tropical cyclone Megan is forecast to track towards the west through inland parts of the Northern Territory over the next few days.