Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season

[Teban54]

Forecast verifications of different sources over time:
 https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1774262078355775711

[toad strangler]

Huge week inbound. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the CSU effort commands much respect. The stomping grounds of William Gray. Can’t wait to read his interpretation of everything we have all been looking at.

[tolakram]

Forecast verifications of different sources over time:
https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1774262078355775711?s=19

He posted a small correction, pasting it here.

The TC figures shown below are based on the past 10 year averages for a NS, H, and MH, respectively.

“CLIMO” constitutes the past 30 year (1994-2023) averages of the aforementioned TC’s.

1) Number of Named Storms:

- ACTUAL….17.0

- CLIMO…….15.5
- TONYB……15.2
- CSU…………15.2
- TWC………..15.2
- TSR…………14.4
- NCSU……..14.3
- WXBELL….13.5
- NOAA……..13.4
- ACCU………13.1

2) Number of Hurricanes:

- ACTUAL…..7.7

- CLIMO……..7.5
- TONYB…….7.2
- TWC…………7.0
- NCSU………6.9
- CSU…………6.8
- TSR………….6.7
- NOAA……..6.5
- ACCU………6.2
- WXBELL….5.8

3) Number of Major Hurricanes:

- ACTUAL….3.5

- CLIMO…….3.4
- TWC………..3.1
- TONYB……3.0
- NOAA……..2.9
- ACCU………2.9
- NCSU………2.9
- WXBELL….2.7
- CSU…………2.7
- TSR………….2.7

4) How often within these ranges:

2 TS:

- TONYB……………60%
- TSR…………………60%
- CLIMO…………….50%
- CSU………………..50%
- TWC……………….40%
- NCSU……………..30%
- WXBELL…………30%
- NOAA…………….20%
- ACCU……………..20%

1 TS:

- TONYB…………..40%
- CLIMO……………30%
- CSU……………….20%
- TWC……………….20%
- NCSU…………….10%
- WXBELL…………10%
- TSR………………..10%
- ACCU…………….10%
- NOAA…………….0%

1 H:

- NCSU……………..60%
- ACCU……………..60%
- TWC……………….60%
- CLIMO……………50%
- TONYB…………..50%
- TSR………………..50%
- NOAA…………….50%
- WXBELL…………50%
- CSU……………….30%

1 MH:

- CLIMO……………..80%
- TONYB…………….80%
- TSR………………….70%
- WXBELL…………..70%
- ACCU……………….70%
- CSU………………….60%
- NOAA………………60%
- TWC…………………60%
- NCSU………………50%

5) SUMMARY:

The most obvious thing that stands out to me is that the rolling forward 30 year seasonal average has performed just as well, if not better, than all of our respective forecasts. This highlights the point that there isn’t an overly significant amount of skill involved in these seasonal TC predictions made just prior to the beginning of #hurricane season…as long as one is keenly aware of the correct AMO phase.

On a season to season basis, there may be a greater margin of error in the case of the two extremes with regards to climatological activity…such as 2013 and 2020.

credit: https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1774262078355775711

[wxman57]

Huge week inbound. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the CSU effort commands much respect. The stomping grounds of William Gray. Can’t wait to read his interpretation of everything we have all been looking at.

Phil & I had a conversation last week about his forecast, which he'll reveal at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island, TX on Thursday. I have to admit, I was a little surprised by his numbers. I told him I was pulling for a repeat of 1914 (one named storm). He said that such a season appears unlikely. Normally, I'd be attending the NTWC but I'm getting ready to leave for Kerrville this week to see the rained-out, clouded-out eclipse.

NTWC Schedule:
https://www.hurricanecenterlive.com/schedule.html

[cycloneye]

And the countdown to the release begins.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... sive&csz=1

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1774930499871387986

[StPeteMike]

Impatiently waiting.

Any predictions? CSU last year forecasted well below the number of Named Storms but were pretty close to Hurricanes and MH, off by one for both. AccuWeather was also under when forecasting Named Storms.

I’ll say they’ll go with 22 Named Storms, 12 Hurricanes , and 6 MH. A stronger version of 2017 seems to be the set-up currently, though it can change by September.

[Teban54]

Impatiently waiting.

Any predictions? CSU last year forecasted well below the number of Named Storms but were pretty close to Hurricanes and MH, off by one for both. AccuWeather was also under when forecasting Named Storms.

I’ll say they’ll go with 22 Named Storms, 12 Hurricanes , and 6 MH. A stronger version of 2017 seems to be the set-up currently, though it can change by September.

Has CSU ever gone that high? Their forecast for 2020 only increased to 24/12/5 in August, and while that's still short of the actual 30/14/7, IIRC the forecast was already record-breaking for CSU at the time. The only other time since then when they had 5 majors was June and July 2022 when they went with 20/10/5, though obviously everyone goofed on that. I also recall people saying that CSU generally leans on the conservative side, especially for the opening bid in April.

Edit: Lol, immediately after my comment, I found that CSU went with 20/10/6 in August 2005. However, not only was that ages ago, but it also included Dennis and Emily which already contributed to the MH counts. Their April 2005 forecast was 13/7/3. On the other hand, they went with 17/9/5 for April 2006 and 2007, both of which turned out well below that.

[wxman57]

Impatiently waiting.

Any predictions? CSU last year forecasted well below the number of Named Storms but were pretty close to Hurricanes and MH, off by one for both. AccuWeather was also under when forecasting Named Storms.

I’ll say they’ll go with 22 Named Storms, 12 Hurricanes , and 6 MH. A stronger version of 2017 seems to be the set-up currently, though it can change by September.

Has CSU ever gone that high? Their forecast for 2020 only increased to 24/12/5 in August, and while that's still short of the actual 30/14/7, IIRC the forecast was already record-breaking for CSU at the time. The only other time since then when they had 5 majors was June and July 2022 when they went with 20/10/5, though obviously everyone goofed on that. I also recall people saying that CSU generally leans on the conservative side, especially for the opening bid in April.

Edit: Lol, immediately after my comment, I found that CSU went with 20/10/6 in August 2005. However, not only was that ages ago, but it also included Dennis and Emily which already contributed to the MH counts. Their April 2005 forecast was 13/7/3. On the other hand, they went with 17/9/5 for April 2006 and 2007, both of which turned out well below that.

One thing we talked about was the ever-increasing number of "shorties", which tend to inflate the number of named storms but usually not hurricanes. It's more important to consider the number of hurricanes than total named storms. The big question we both have is the status of NAO come peak season. A positive AMO would be bad for the Caribbean islands and west into the Gulf and/or the southeast U.S. You'll see his forecast in two days.

[chaser1]

Impatiently waiting.

Any predictions? CSU last year forecasted well below the number of Named Storms but were pretty close to Hurricanes and MH, off by one for both. AccuWeather was also under when forecasting Named Storms.

I’ll say they’ll go with 22 Named Storms, 12 Hurricanes , and 6 MH. A stronger version of 2017 seems to be the set-up currently, though it can change by September.

Has CSU ever gone that high? Their forecast for 2020 only increased to 24/12/5 in August, and while that's still short of the actual 30/14/7, IIRC the forecast was already record-breaking for CSU at the time. The only other time since then when they had 5 majors was June and July 2022 when they went with 20/10/5, though obviously everyone goofed on that. I also recall people saying that CSU generally leans on the conservative side, especially for the opening bid in April.

Edit: Lol, immediately after my comment, I found that CSU went with 20/10/6 in August 2005. However, not only was that ages ago, but it also included Dennis and Emily which already contributed to the MH counts. Their April 2005 forecast was 13/7/3. On the other hand, they went with 17/9/5 for April 2006 and 2007, both of which turned out well below that.

One thing we talked about was the ever-increasing number of "shorties", which tend to inflate the number of named storms but usually not hurricanes. It's more important to consider the number of hurricanes than total named storms. The big question we both have is the status of NAO come peak season. A positive AMO would be bad for the Caribbean islands and west into the Gulf and/or the southeast U.S. You'll see his forecast in two days.

I emphatically agree with yours and Phil's take on the "increasing number of shorties". To take that one step further, I vote that beginning this year we start changing applicable storm names during post season analysis such as Tropical Shortie Olga during 2019 or perhaps the menacing Tropical Shortie Colin in 2022

[ChrisH-UK]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1775886289310449959

[mcheer23]

Highest forecast ever put out by CSU

[ChrisH-UK]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1775886040642818296




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1775887295767298387




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1775889560024572019




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1775890818382852182

[AnnularCane]

Is this their first forecast going into the auxiliary list?

[aspen]

Dang I didn’t think Phil would go that high. Is this his first 200+ ACE April forecast?

[JtSmarts]

Analogs: 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, 2020

[SFLcane]

Oh man unreal Phil k highest april numbers in 30 yrs. Buckle up folks!

[MarioProtVI]

What’s even more baffling is that his forecast is BELOW the guidance, meaning the models are suggesting 2005-levels. Unreal.

[StPeteMike]

Not surprised by the forecast numbers, figured Phil would go high with the numbers. I’ll have to watch his livestream later on today.

[blp]

What’s even more baffling is that his forecast is BELOW the guidance, meaning the models are suggesting 2005-levels. Unreal.

Indeed..I snipped this off his presentation. The ACE in the models is off the charts.

[blp]

This was another slide that was scary.