Total Solar Eclipse April 8 2024 (Totallity from Texas to Maine)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1773738499734438365

[Astromanía]

I will be at Torreon from April 6th to 8th, I already bought the travel tickets

[USTropics]

Not sure what the verification scores are on these products from this timeframe, but here are the current cloud coverage expectancy (%) by various models:

GFS


ECMWF


ICON


CMC

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1775192316569125028

[tolakram]

Fingers crossed this is a one day drive for us. Planned to stay mobile on purpose, and even though we are just 30 minutes from the centerline I still planned to drive to Texas if needed.

[wxman57]

Fingers crossed this is a one day drive for us. Planned to stay mobile on purpose, and even though we are just 30 minutes from the centerline I still planned to drive to Texas if needed.

Your best bet to see it would be to drive to northern Maine. Looking very cloudy along much of the path from Texas through the Ohio Valley. May get a brief glimpse of the sun is all I'm hoping for in Kerville.

[tolakram]

Will see how this changes day to day. Never expected Texas to be one of the worst places to view.

 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/1775557112313344091

[tolakram]

Worse

[tolakram]

GFS only. Still need to get closer, but I have to decide if I want to get in front of this system and go northeast into east coast population hell, or get just behind it in the Illinois area. I feel like NE New York is going to get pretty crowded.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NationalEclipse/status/1776041188287562210

[tolakram]

source: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/eclipse/

[tolakram]

Here's a model page but note THE COLORS ARE EXACTLY WRONG. Blue is cloudy, white is clear. I prefer tropical tidbits but it's having issues at the moment.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=cloudcover&rh=2024040506&fh=84

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/1776286121837904242

[USTropics]

These products are from Tomer Burg over at OU, some really good looks using NBM (National Blend of Models) for average cloud coverage %:


You can get various ensemble products as well here -http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/eclipse/

For those eclipse chasing (its a thing), you can even get a breakdown on a by city basis of expected viewing parameters (click City Dashboard).

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1776359246692810808






source: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-clouds?base_time=202404051200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202404081800

-Low-level Cloud Cover (LCC) is shown as brown and approximately corresponds to levels between 0m and 1800m above the model's earth surface.
-Medium-level Cloud Cover (MCC) is shown as magenta and approximately corresponds to levels between 1800m and 6300m above the model's earth surface.
-High-level Cloud Cover (HCC) is shown as cyan and approximately corresponds to levels higher than 6300m above the model's earth surface.

[tolakram]

I'm starting to feel pretty good about not having to travel much. This is the model I've been using to predict clear skies at night for astrophotography. It's pretty foolish to only use a single model, so take it with a grain of salt.

[snownado]

I'm starting to feel pretty good about not having to travel much. This is the model I've been using to predict clear skies at night for astrophotography. It's pretty foolish to only use a single model, so take it with a grain of salt.

https://i.imgur.com/SGosk4g.png
https://i.imgur.com/qB1pvny.png
https://i.imgur.com/ekZeq4H.png

What you're saying about not using a single model is great advice in general, but the RGEM / GGEM (Canadian model) is comparatively poor from a verification standpoint versus the GFS and EURO.

That said, I'd love nothing more than for it to finally get it right this time.

[tolakram]

I'm starting to feel pretty good about not having to travel much. This is the model I've been using to predict clear skies at night for astrophotography. It's pretty foolish to only use a single model, so take it with a grain of salt.

https://i.imgur.com/SGosk4g.png
https://i.imgur.com/qB1pvny.png
https://i.imgur.com/ekZeq4H.png

What you're saying about not using a single model is great advice in general, but the RGEM / GGEM (Canadian model) is comparatively poor from a verification standpoint versus the GFS and EURO.

That said, I'd love nothing more than for it to finally get it right this time.

This is the one model to correctly predict clear skies in my area a full day before, while the GFS is predicting all kinds of nonsense. Tomorrow is the day I can decide where we go. I'm a little allergic to multi model predictions that includes the GFS. The euro seems the most accurate, with mostly high clouds predicted for my area, which won't interfere with an eclipse. Maine is still the safest bet, but I can't get to Maine.

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1776639875749466219

[snownado]

00z HRRR also has a cautiously optimistic skycover projection like the NAM does for DFW, FWIW