2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Teban54]

The +AMO cooling down from the absurd levels has been showing up on every global model output since January. That's hardly unexpected, and it has been shown repeatedly that even record-tying cooling still results in an MDR as warm as the warmest of years except 2023.

Very true. Back when I was first forecasting - in the days of the great Bob Sheets - we didn't start talking about the season from an activity standpoint until mid-May.

I think they call that technological progress

Indeed, in a non-joking way, this figure from the CSU April 2024 forecast shows how much their preseason forecast skills have improved over time. April forecasts in 1984-2013 had negative skills, but those in 2014-2023 were massively more skillful, being even better than June forecasts before 2014.

[TheWisestofAll]

https://i.imgur.com/ebn8JxK.gif
Slightly weaker Precip Anomalies, maybe some subsidence and dry air?

I wonder if the shift to weaker anomalies is related to the sudden shift to a -IOD, causing dryness over the western SWIO and weakening the WAM.
The previous run kept IOD positive thru peak hurricane season and a much wetter output.

[mixedDanilo.E]

https://i.imgur.com/ebn8JxK.gif
Slightly weaker Precip Anomalies, maybe some subsidence and dry air?

I wonder if the shift to weaker anomalies is related to the sudden shift to a -IOD, causing dryness over the western SWIO and weakening the WAM.
The previous run kept IOD positive thru peak hurricane season and a much wetter output.

I think it may have to do with slight downward shift in La Nina, seemingly less aggressive on a stronger nina and slower in developing as well.

[cycloneye]

Posting this and leaving.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1776601228677452110

[cycloneye]

NMME April run is up and has no changes to the prior months as it has a very favorable outlook with La Niña growing to moderate/strong and the Atlantic remains very warm. The only thing it does not have is an Atlantic Niño.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... anom.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... anom.shtml

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1776987412758970820

[cycloneye]

April NMME is up now at the tropical tidbits site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 40800&fh=6

[cycloneye]

This loop from July thru September has NMME showing a lift of moisture to the north. It will be important to watch if other models like UKMET, JMA, CanSIPS will have it.

[cycloneye]

To my point.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1777031433082576932

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/catinsight/status/1776972764294873228



 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1777025132877300215

[weeniepatrol]

From this weeks' MJO update



"emerging low frequency convective response favored over Africa and the western Indian" stood out to me

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1777739101254582564

[LarryWx]

My biggest hope is that any well above normal season in activity is like 2010, when the CONUS got off largely unscathed. The fact that 2010 is an analog for at least a couple of the main forecasters is giving me at least some hope.

[Blown Away]

My biggest hope is that any well above normal season in activity is like 2010, when the CONUS got off largely unscathed. The fact that 2010 is an analog for at least a couple of the main forecasters is giving me at least some hope.

2010 featured many early recurves??

[zzzh]

Agencies finally switched to JRA3Q reanalysis after JRA55 was discontinued, we can see the latest climate indices values such as MEI now.
For AMM particularly, the wind derived AMM value is -7 for March.

[ScottNAtlanta]

My biggest hope is that any well above normal season in activity is like 2010, when the CONUS got off largely unscathed. The fact that 2010 is an analog for at least a couple of the main forecasters is giving me at least some hope.

2010 featured many early recurves??

This is the 2010 map

[Kingarabian]

Don't need cool neutral/La Nina in place before June for an all around bonkers Atlantic hurricane season. Need it by mid July like 2017. If it's any later, then it'll probably a back loaded hurricane season if the EPAC competes early on.

[cycloneye]

The C3S April run.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1778036506721976365

[cycloneye]

I think our friend USTropics can help us with this about the ITCZ. Would be interesting to bucket seasons by ITCZ latitude across the eastern MDR and get a track/ace anomaly plot for the different buckets. It will be good to have a mean ITCZ position data available for August/September. I only found this link about this.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/fews/itf/products/

[TheWisestofAll]

My biggest hope is that any well above normal season in activity is like 2010, when the CONUS got off largely unscathed. The fact that 2010 is an analog for at least a couple of the main forecasters is giving me at least some hope.

As far as I can tell, 2010 is an analog by virtue of its ENSO evolution and extremely warm Tropical Atlantic configuration, not because of potential storm track or the other elements that govern the latter.