2024 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1777061281649795113

The question is which model will be right.

[Kingarabian]

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1777061281649795113

The question is which model will be right.

It would actually be surprising if the GFS is right here. It's proven to have these biases when theres a transition from neutral or +ENSO to La Nina.The Euro is likely to verify in that there won't be a legitimate WWB.

[Kingarabian]

The SEHEM is only thing carrying this El Nino at this point:


Typcially during strong/super El Nino's to La Nina transitions, the SHEM usually takes a while to shift. In weaker/moderate El Nino's to La Nina transition, the SHEM would have been cooler by now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1777694201578397975

[Kingarabian]

Cooling of the ENSO regions will probably be slow for April since all models agree that the trade winds will be weaker for the remainder of the month.

[cycloneye]

The 7 day change looks blue.

[cycloneye]

Another MJO in Pacific.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1777849238753354050

[Kingarabian]

The 7 day change looks blue.

https://i.imgur.com/AtvMa0N.jpeg

MJO is inbound which will likely lead to slower equatorial pacific trades. That's my reasoning for a less likely chance of drastic cooling this month.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1777753380632367138

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 down to +0.8C.

[cycloneye]

Big day tommorrow as CPC will have the new monthly update of april and we will see how they are going to have the percents for the ENSO transition from El Niño to Neutral and later to La Niña. On the March update, they had 83% of neutral between April and June and La Niña at 62% between June and August.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1778101982957322688

[cycloneye]

CPC April update has 85% of Neutral between April thru June and La Niña at 60% between June thru August.By the way, that 60% is down from the 62% it had at the same months on the March update.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

The ENSO BLOG has more insight about the CPC April update.

[Teban54]

The SSTA profile in the Pacific now looks a bit hilarious, even if hardly unexpected.


The 15-day SSTA change in the ENSO regions is also quite striking:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1779106127361302686

[cycloneye]

How come the 30 day SOI index is going down, while niño 3.4 is cooling?

[LarryWx]

How come the 30 day SOI index is going down, while niño 3.4 is cooling?

https://i.imgur.com/dvvlhS0.jpeg

1. I think SOI is a valuable index but there’s some randomness to the SOI that has little to do with ENSO phase. Also, there’s some lag when you look at 30 and 90 day averages.

2. Compared to the prior times of leaving a very strong to super Nino on the way to Niña (2016, 1998, 1983), there’s nothing unusual about -SOIs lingering into April even while 3.4 was cooling. But May wasn’t:

SOI:
2016: April -19; May +3
1998: April -22; May 0
1983: April -16; May +6

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Sea ... 89Base.txt

[cycloneye]

Great information here about the IOD and a possible multiyear la niña.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1779199265891402061




 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1779199270312108345

[dexterlabio]

How come the 30 day SOI index is going down, while niño 3.4 is cooling?

https://i.imgur.com/dvvlhS0.jpeg

This may be analogous to how the Nino regions were warming up steadily despite the SOI tanking during this El Nino event's early stage.