2023 Global ACE: - NH - 635.4 / NATL - 145.6 / EPAC - 164.0 / WPAC - 271.6 / NIO - 55.0

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1717556200315793648

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1717556200315793648

Hyperactive ACE requires 159.6 as per NOAA's definition. We're surprisingly not far off - only 15.7 needed.

If the GFS Caribbean hurricane plays out exactly as such, it will surely be enough, but of course it's not clear whether that's a phantom.

[WalterWhite]

The North Atlantic only needs to produce 14.3 ACE to reach the hyperactive threshold. Another major hurricane would do it. If it does, this would make 2023 the first hyperactive El Nino season since 2004.

[cheezyWXguy]

The North Atlantic only needs to produce 14.3 ACE to reach the hyperactive threshold. Another major hurricane would do it. If it does, this would make 2023 the first hyperactive El Nino season since 2004.

Has there ever been a hyperactive east based El Niño in our (limited) records? I know 2004 was a modoki

[ChrisH-UK]

The North Atlantic only needs to produce 14.3 ACE to reach the hyperactive threshold. Another major hurricane would do it. If it does, this would make 2023 the first hyperactive El Nino season since 2004.

Has there ever been a hyperactive east based El Niño in our (limited) records? I know 2004 was a modoki

Well these years were El-Nino years that had a high ACE and most of them interestingly the Atlantic Equatorial was hotter then the El-Nino 3.4 region much like this year.

1926 SOI -0.49 ACE 229 0.078c hotter
1932 SOI -0.678 ACE 169 0.66c
1969 SOI -0.666 ACE 165 -0.411 cooler
1995 SOI -0.336 ACE 227 0.323c
1998 SOI -0.224 ACE 181 0.672c
2003 SOI -0.457 ACE 176 0.221c
2004 SOI -0.633 ACE 226 -0.043c
2005 SOI -0.457 ACE 245 0.364c

[cheezyWXguy]

The North Atlantic only needs to produce 14.3 ACE to reach the hyperactive threshold. Another major hurricane would do it. If it does, this would make 2023 the first hyperactive El Nino season since 2004.

Has there ever been a hyperactive east based El Niño in our (limited) records? I know 2004 was a modoki

Well these years were El-Nino years that had a high ACE and most of them interestingly the Atlantic Equatorial was hotter then the El-Nino 3.4 region much like this year.

1926 SOI -0.49 ACE 229 0.078c hotter
1932 SOI -0.678 ACE 169 0.66c
1969 SOI -0.666 ACE 165 -0.411 cooler
1995 SOI -0.336 ACE 227 0.323c
1998 SOI -0.224 ACE 181 0.672c
2003 SOI -0.457 ACE 176 0.221c
2004 SOI -0.633 ACE 226 -0.043c
2005 SOI -0.457 ACE 245 0.364c

I’m not familiar with all of these, but I thought some of the more recent ace heavy hitters in the list (95, 03, 05) had already moved out of El Niño into at least neutral by peak season? How many of these were during strengthening El Niños?

[ChrisH-UK]

Has there ever been a hyperactive east based El Niño in our (limited) records? I know 2004 was a modoki

Well these years were El-Nino years that had a high ACE and most of them interestingly the Atlantic Equatorial was hotter then the El-Nino 3.4 region much like this year.

1926 SOI -0.49 ACE 229 0.078c hotter
1932 SOI -0.678 ACE 169 0.66c
1969 SOI -0.666 ACE 165 -0.411 cooler
1995 SOI -0.336 ACE 227 0.323c
1998 SOI -0.224 ACE 181 0.672c
2003 SOI -0.457 ACE 176 0.221c
2004 SOI -0.633 ACE 226 -0.043c
2005 SOI -0.457 ACE 245 0.364c

I’m not familiar with all of these, but I thought some of the more recent ace heavy hitters in the list (95, 03, 05) had already moved out of El Niño into at least neutral by peak season? How many of these were during strengthening El Niños?

The data i have been using looking for pattens to match this year have been yearly averages. I could see if I could get monthly data for those years to look at it in more detail.

As the general trend is for a more hotter sea temps it looks like the effects of El Nino and La Nina will matter less unless it is as extreme case.

[galaxy401]

So now that all the TCR reports are complete for the Atlantic and the EPac, how much of a revision did it have on the ACE units in both basins. I imagine it went up around 1 digit.

[kevin]

So now that all the TCR reports are complete for the Atlantic and the EPac, how much of a revision did it have on the ACE units in both basins. I imagine it went up around 1 digit.

According to the history of the ACE calcs page on wikipedia the ACE increased from 145.6 to 147.0, but I haven't checked all their calculations and whether they have all of the latest BT data.