Area in the eastern Atlantic

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/elioeFIN/status/1782900516978131009




It does appear interesting

[Teban54]

The fact that we have these two things spinning in the Atlantic is certainly interesting, especially in April: (I know, the western one shouldn't be named regardless)

[Hurricane2022]

[chaser1]

You're about to get into your car and you see what appears to be a shiny coin on the ground about 12' away? Then as you come upon it and nearly about to go pick it up....... you realize that it's just a Penny

[ChrisH-UK]

Been keeping a eye on this for the past week. The models show it moving south however it also looks that it will be sheared by the upper level winds as it goes south. It has a low level circulation of 30-35 knots and limited convection cloud build up with it.

[tiger_deF]

The fact that we have these two things spinning in the Atlantic is certainly interesting, especially in April: (I know, the western one shouldn't be named regardless)
https://i.postimg.cc/8chwwm2Q/goes16-ir-atl.gif

Looks like June in the eastern Atlantic. Impressive considering the magnitude of the recent SAL outbreak.

It’s been a while since we’ve had significant pre season development, maybe 2024 breaks the trend?

[JetFuel_SE]

The fact that we have these two things spinning in the Atlantic is certainly interesting, especially in April: (I know, the western one shouldn't be named regardless)
https://i.postimg.cc/8chwwm2Q/goes16-ir-atl.gif

Looks like June in the eastern Atlantic. Impressive considering the magnitude of the recent SAL outbreak.

It’s been a while since we’ve had significant pre season development, maybe 2024 breaks the trend?

Ehh, a Canada landfall in January is quite significant tbh.

[Sciencerocks]

closed LLC
convection

The nhc probably should talk about it and give it its due. Looks good enough for at least 50-60%.
 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1783170296184222059

[cycloneye]

closed LLC
convection

The nhc probably should talk about it and give it its due. Looks good enough for at least 50-60%.
https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1783170296184222059

From the 18z discussion:

a weakening low pressure system is near 25N36W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 25N between 30W and 45W
around the NW quadrant of the low. Moderate winds or lighter are
south and east of the low. Peak seas of 12 ft still exist near
26N37W in the NE quadrant of the low

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WDAT.shtml?

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1783178028752732639

[TheAustinMan]

April's often a month where you find some of these small, borderline swirls in the subtropical Atlantic, and you can find a few examples from the last 10 years. This one seems to be an especially tightly-wound member of the bunch, and it would definitely be raising more eyebrows if it was closer to land in the Western Atlantic. Convectively, this storm is being supported in part being underneath an upper-level trough, resulting in cold upper-tropospheric temperatures near -50C. However, the instability that this storm has been able to work with --- perhaps around 1000 J/kg of CAPE, in fact! --- is a testament to the anomalous warmth in the Atlantic this year. Observations from floats in the area suggest sea surface temperatures of around 24.2C, or about 1.5 to 2C above average.

Entering this morning's GOES-16 shot into the record for future reference.

Source: EOSDIS WorldView. GeoColor and visible views were retrieved separately and then composited to achieve higher contrast resolution.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1783212609052836027

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1783212609052836027

For the central Atlantic system, I would argue that this was even a tropical system briefly today and last night. ASCAT got a great pass that showed a vigorous circulation which we can also see in visible animation. Convection is still firing just NE of the low-level circulation, and diffluent shear is even producing some lightning:


Phase diagram plots also show this achieved a warm core:


For the system in the north Atlantic, off the NE coast, this would have more of an argument for subtropical. Considering the origin was from a shortwave trough that produced a mid-latitude cyclone over the weekend/early this week, we would consider it more extratropical:

[Landy]

East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area
of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this
morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10
to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and
tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, and Special
Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the
remainder of the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[kevin]

East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area
of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this
morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10
to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and
tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, and Special
Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the
remainder of the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/NWrDs3g/two-atl-7d0-15.png [/url]

First lemon of the season, we're starting early this year.

[Hurricane2022]

East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area
of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this
morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10
to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and
tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, and Special
Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the
remainder of the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/NWrDs3g/two-atl-7d0-15.png [/url]

I don't understand why the NHC is so resistant to these systems that form before May. Even though the chances are slim, I hope they upgrade this system to a (S)TS in a few months, just like they did with 01L last year. I'm pretty confident this is a TS.

[Sciencerocks]

I agree that this probably is upgradable. well defined LLC with convection bursting over it.

Looks better then last seasons first NAMED storm.

[Hurricane2022]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1783240702991708649



 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1783236950381691329

[cycloneye]

TXNT26 KNES 241828
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 24/1800Z

C. 24.4N

D. 36.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. SYSTEM
HAS TRANSITIONED FM SUBTROP TO TROP. LLCC FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED. MDTLY-DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED E OF CENTER SINCE ABOUT 07Z WITH CLOUD TOPS
CURRENTLY AS COLD AS -55 C. WRLY SHEAR IMPACTING SYSTEM. MET=1.0 AND
PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON